Elite Analysis: Mississippi River – Day 3

Day 3 in La Crosse is done, and as we head into Championship Monday, everyone’s catching them and no angler has been able to separate himself from the pack.

Day 3 in La Crosse is done, and as we head into Championship Monday, everyone’s catching them and no angler has been able to separate himself from the pack.

It’s been so good that competitors had to search for something to complain about. Ray Hanselman drily noted that “Today was the only day I didn’t catch a double.” To the extent he was aggrieved, however, that was assuaged by the fact that he brought 16-02 to the scales today, nearly 3 pounds more than his prior best limit, so that kind of makes up for it. That pulled him up from 25th place to 13th and marked his best Elite Series finish since he was 3rd at the Harris Chain early this year.

“Never forget that fishing is fun,” said newly-crowned two-time AOY winner Brandon Palaniuk, who exercised his own spin on the “baby pattern.” That’s easy to do when they’re biting like they bite on the Upper Mississippi. That makes it fun and a bit nerve-wracking for us fans, too – step away from the coverage for a moment and you’re likely to miss a life-changing fish.

Here are my thoughts on a day that rubbed more skin off thumbs than any in recent memory:

Combs Needs it Most – With Bryan Schmitt’s Championship Monday appearance this week, and Brock Mosley’s surge, it appears that Keith Combs is the only member of the La Crosse top ten who will need the “win and you’re in” to get into the 2023 Bassmaster Classic. He’s a little bit less than 2 pounds behind Johnston, with Bryan Schmitt just 4 ounces behind him. Today on LIVE we saw a frog that Combs retired yesterday after it literally had the finish worn off of it by dozens upon dozens of fish this week. Of course, he also mixed in other lures, notably a Carolina Rig, but of his many career wins I don’t recall any that involved a topwater. There have been several with a crankbait, a few with a jig (like his Mille Lacs victory) or soft plastics (including a PAA win that involved the Lateral Perch, if you can remember that one), but none on top or with other moving baits. Last year he finished second at Champlain with a topwater, but came up less than a pound short of Bryan Schmitt.

Thinking Ahead – Brandon Palaniuk gave a brief but heartfelt AOY acceptance speech on the stage at the end of the weigh-in, which made clear that he never takes anything for granted, this week, this season, or across the remaining landscape of his career. He’s keenly aware of the sport’s history. “The group of people who have done it three times is a lot smaller than the people who have done it twice,” he told Chad Pipkens before take-off. Today he became the twelfth angler to earn the title twice.

The Rope-A-Dope – My inner conspiracy theorist starting working today as I watched Palaniuk catch one fish after another after another (and occasionally two at a time). He made it look so easy today, in the same places and doing the same things where he seemed to struggle yesterday – was there any possibility that he was just doing enough to make it to Day Three and keep it interesting with the goal of killing others’ AOY dreams today? Under no circumstances do I think that things actually went down that way, but it would be a hell of a story if it did.

Body English – Watching Bryan New go through an early morning flurry today was exciting, not just because of the frequency and size of his catches, but also because of the oomph that went into his hooksets. He put all of his estimated 165 pounds into driving steel into his quarry’s mouth, once nearly going out of the boat. It harkened me back to the 2011 Bassmaster Classic in New Orleans, where I first watched Palaniuk fish. Even though we were a few hundred yards away from him in Cataouatche, every time BP hooked up he did a spirited dance around the boat – ducking, dodging and leaning in – that showed just how much each fish mattered to him.

Edge of Seventeen – Unlike Friday and Saturday, no angler topped the 17-pound mark today. Tournament leader Chris Johnston came closest with 16-12. He was joined in today’s 16-plus club by Bryan New, Brock Mosley and Ray Hanselman. Five more anglers topped 15 pounds on the day.

Fourteen Times Three – While it took an average of 14-05 per day to make the top ten, only three anglers hit that minimum weight each day – Johnston, Combs, and 5th place angler Matt Arey. 

Unbelievable Consistency – Since joining the Elite Series full-time in 2019, Chris Johnston has competed in 35 regular season Elite events, and finished in the top 10 in 13 of them. That’s a lot of Sunday (or Monday) appearances. Perhaps even more impressive than the great finishes is how few bombs he’s experienced. He finished 71st at the St. Johns in 2020, but other than that he only has one result worse than 60th, and four more in the fifties. Even when he misses the cut, he’s close, and he’s gaining points.

Tale of Two Seasons – Jeff Gustafson never made a top ten this year but he nevertheless easily qualified for the Bassmaster Classic. That comes in spite of the fact that he started the year horribly (by his standards) – 51st at the St. Johns, 47th at the Harris Chain and 66th at Santee Cooper. Since then, though, he’s accumulated lots of points and checks with six straight finishes of 26th or better.

Difference Makers – “Threes are awesome here, but you need a four,” said Keith Combs. With a few of them tomorrow he could be fishing in Knoxville instead of working the Expo.

Wildlife of the Day — Grebes (not pelicans).

Additional Vegetation Note – The further north you go, Johnson Grass becomes Johnston Grass.