Elite Analysis – Day 2 Lake Murray

Can Bryant Smith keep his South Carolina magic alive? Will changing weather conditions shake up the leaderboard again at Lake Murray? Pete Robbins breaks down the BassTrakk shuffle, shifting momentum and key storylines in this edition of Elite Analysis.

Two members of the Surge Squad went up today and two went down, but they’re all still in the top 20. It feels like youthful energy is the currency of the week here at Lake Murray – like a 1950s dance-a-thon or a now-banned grade school game of dodgeball, this tournament may come down to the last man standing.

The herring won’t make it easy on them. They didn’t today and there’s no better example of that than Surger Emil Wagner (12th, 41-3), who seemingly could do no wrong yesterday and chipped and chunked his way to a less-satisfying 16-6 today. He’s just 14 ounces out of the top 10, and less than 5 pounds off the lead, but still appears to feel like he’s in the driver’s seat.

“Tomorrow we have clouds, wind and rain. That’s exactly what I want,” the Day 1 leader said.

In this upside-down world, somehow every silver lining leaves people looking for the clouds.

The leaderboard flipped and it flopped and it seemed like the catches went down, except they really didn’t – they just shifted to new beneficiaries. 

Here’s what I saw, heard and thought as our protagonists played the BassTrakk shuffle and toyed with our expectations.

Palmetto State Success – If tournament leader Bryant Smith can hold onto a spot in the top 10 through Sunday, this will become the Californian’s third on the Elite Series and fourth with BASS overall. All but a 2023 4th place finish at Champlain have come in South Carolina. He was 7th at Santee in a 2023 Elite and 2nd in a 2022 Open on Hartwell. He also has twin 12th place finishes in prior Elites at Hartwell and Murray.

Twenties – There were 29 bags of 20 pounds or more on Day 1 and 22 on Day 2.

Ten anglers caught 20 pounds or more both days. Jordan Lee (3rd, 44-8) is the highest-ranking angler who did not top 20 each day. He’s joined in the top 10 by Sam Hanggi (7th, 43-0). No one has topped 22 pounds each day and only three anglers have topped 21 each day.

Making the Cut  The 50th place angler after Day 1 had 18-2. Doubling that would be 36-4. It ended up taking 35-11, just 9 ounces off the mark. Eight anglers missed the cut by a pound or less, including John Cox (57th, 34-15) who failed to weigh in a limit yesterday. Six more anglers missed the cut by 2 pounds or less, including Stetson Blaylock, who likewise only had nine bass for the event.

Easton Fothergill (29th, 39-6) – “This place is Hartwell on steroids.”

Consistency Counts  Every angler who caught 20 pounds or more yesterday made the cut to Saturday but three members of the field caught 20 pounds or more today and will get to sleep in tomorrow. Meanwhile 11 anglers failed to hit 20 either day and still made the cut. The top-rankedamong them is Lee Livesay in 33rd with 38-7.

Staying Alive – Three members of the Day 1 top 10 are still in that mix after Day 2: Kyoya Fujita (4th, 44-7), Andrew Loberg (6th, 43-12) and Trey McKinney (8th, 42-14).

Carryover – Two members of the final top 10 from Muskogee are in the top 10 again here: Caleb Hudson (9th, 42-12) and Trey McKinney.

Catching a Century  Three anglers had 25 pounds or more yesterday to put themselves on pace for a Century Belt this week. None of those pros – Emil Wagner, Jacob Foutz or Taku Ito – kept up that pace today. The only bag over 25 was Jordan Lee’s tournament-best 26-5. Leader Bryant Smith has 46-6, which means he’ll need to average 26-13 over the next two days to earn a belt along with the blue trophy.

Hank Cherry (90th, 27-7) – “I still say we’re going to see a 30-pound bag before it’s all over.”

Tag, You’re It – Rookie Caleb Hudson, who kept up his perfect record of making Elite Series cuts, got an added bonus today when he caught a tagged fish. He also happened to have registered for the contest, in which 200 such fish have been placed in both Murray and Santee Cooper. An unofficial and incomplete survey of the Elite field found no one else who had likewise registered. The fish will be worth $1,100 and possibly more. Fortunately he was allowedto remove the tag and get paid, because it was not among his top five catches of the day and got released back in the drink to possibly please future contest entrants.

Respect the Homeland – Per AI (so take it with a grain of salt) the most popular fishing television series in Denmark is “Sea Trout Secrets.” Stars include Claus Eriksen and Thomas Hansen. If he can win this week, Emil Wagner may position himself as the future Bill Dance of Scandinavia.

Trey McKinney on the Murray bass – “I’m convinced they’re blind, honestly.” 

Bassmaster History – The first two major events BASS held here at Lake Murray were the 1991 South Carolina Top 100 and the 1993 Top 100, both won by Texan David Wharton. Over three days the first time he had 48-12, beating Tom Mann Jr. by 5 ounces. Wharton’s primary lure was a Junebug 5 1/2-inch Ditto Gator Tail plastic worm and Mann’s was a Zoom Mag 2, also in Junebug. I would bet a decent amount of money that no competitor this week is relying heavily on a Junebug worm. The second Lake Murray Top 100 hewed closer to this week’s weights – he won with 87-09 over four days. No one in this week’s field fished the 1991 event. Mark Menendez finished 55th here in 1993.

Sam Hanggi on the 7-4 he Caught Today – “When I saw it wallering out of the water I thought it was a 15-pounder.” It did not hold up as big fish – falling short of Jordan Lee’s 7-7 by just 3 ounces – but the Tennessee rookie did qualify for his first Day 3 appearance of the season.

Football and Fishing Parallels – Tedy Bruschi’s 2007 memoir was titled “Never Give Up,” which of course is also the catch phrase of Bass Fishing Hall of Famer Mike Iaconelli.

Happy Anniversary – Yesterday Greg Hackney weighed in 17-12, which had him outside the cut with the rest of the fifty-somethings, but today he bounced back with 22-2 and rose up to 20th. It’s also his 27th wedding anniversary. “I guess this is my anniversary present to myself,” he said. “I’ll give her hers when I get home.” His results at Murray over his lengthy career have been mixed. The worst was a 97th place finish here in 2024, but the best were 17th and 16th place finishes in 2008 and 2023, respectively. If he can improve a handful of spots from his current 20thplace position, he’ll notch a personal best Elite finish for Murray.

Matt Robertson (21st, 40-11) – “We’re staying in a trailer. That’s probably why I’m catching ‘em so good.”

Hite’s History – During his Hall of Fame career, Lake Murray expert Davy Hite earned eight Bassmaster wins, including three in Alabama, but it’s up to debate whether he ever won in his home state. He did win the 2006 Pride of Augusta event on Clarks Hill by a nearly 9-poundmargin, and some of his catch may have been in South Carolina waters, but as the title suggests the tournament launched in and was hosted by the state of Georgia. He finished 2nd to Casey Ashley in the Carolina Clash on Lake Murray in 2011 and 4th in the 2008 event of the same name (and same location). He was also 4th in a 2002 Southern Open here and 4th in the 1993 Megabucks event.

JT Thompkins (47th, 36-1) – “I think all of my fish have been on Weight Watchers for the past month.”

A Tale of Two Tournaments – Stetson Blaylock weighed in 10-3 yesterday, which had him near the bottom of the leaderboard. “It was one of those days that was like a nightmare I couldn’t wake up from.” Friday was a different story as he dropped 23-10 on the scales and said that the difference “is the reason that I love what I do.” Alas, had he only caught his fifth fish yesterday, it likely would have propelled him to Saturday. He missed the cut by 1-14.

Foutz Comes Alive – In seven past Elites and Opens in the state of South Carolina, Muskogee champ Jacob Foutz only has one money finish – an unremarkable 41st here at Murray at 2024. He also fished the 2018 Classic on Hartwell and finished 39th. If he can hold onto his 25th place position, he’ll get his SC mojo headed in the right direction.

We have two more days to see how this plays out and I get to watch it all.

So I got that goin’ for me…which is nice.