Elite Analysis – Day 1 Lake Murray 2026

Is Lake Murray the best it's ever been for the Elite Series? Is Emil Wagner on the fast track to a blue trophy? Pete Robbins discusses this and more in this edition of Elite Analysis.

Emil Wagner, arguably the most well-known Great Dane among fishing fans after Scooby-Doo, Marmaduke, and Astro from The Jetsons, got his day in the sun.

Except it rained. A lot.

Along with his five bass that weighed 25 pounds, 7 ounces, Wagner might’ve been wise to gather up two of the dogs listed above, along with two of every other animal in the immediate region.

Despite the rain, or perhaps because of it, he stands to be 100-grand richer on Sunday. That’s a lot of Scooby Snacks, sports fans.

But his path to prosperity – or through Prosperity, in this case – will be a tough one. He’s shown he can close. He’s won the BFL All-American and last year made first-man-out-of-the-Classic-cut John Crews very happy with an Elite Qualifier win at Champlain. Still, he has a murderer’s row of herring hammers behind him, with six other anglers catching 24 pounds or more, and a total of 29 foes weighing in 20 or more.

Wagner, who guides on Lake Lanier, said it was the biggest bag of herring eaters he’s ever caught in a tournament. It could have been more. He lost an estimated 6-pounder at the boat. When it hit, his line was wrapped around the tip of his rod. He couldn’t get any leverage and when he finally got the situation straightened out it was just a touch too late. The bass pulled off when it was 6 inches from the boat. He dove and got both hands on it, but couldn’t corral his quarry. It would have culled out a 4 ¾.

With the weights so tight, that could be the difference when Sunday rolls around. Lake Murray produced better than it ever has in Elite Series competition and while the weather is changing quickly, we can expect more big bags before the end of the event.

Here’s what I saw, heard and thought on a day that exceeded my extremely high expectations:

Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad – In both 2023 and 2024, the Day 1 leader had 25-8 – Matt Robertson and Patrick Walters, respectively. Today, Wagner failed to make it three-for-three. He fell an ounce (or perhaps one herring) short with 25-7. Jacob Foutz (2nd) missed it by perhaps two herring with 25-6.

Trey McKinney (9th, 23-11) – “It’s a really tough fishery. It has more bass than any place I’ve ever been to. When they’re firing, it’s a blast, but when they’re not, it’s a grind.” He reported only catching 8-10 keeper bass today. “In a school of 50 bass if you get one to bite you’re doing pretty good.”

Surging – All four members of the Surge Squad are inside the cut: Wagner in the lead; Andrew Loberg in eighth; Paul Marks in 14th; and Tucker Smith in 38th. Smith is the only one under 20 pounds, albeit barely with 19-6. They’re averaging over 22 pounds apiece.

McKinney Stays Strong – Trey McKinney entered the tournament leading Cory Johnston by one point in the AOY race. He’s in ninth in this tournament with 23-11 and Johnston is in 78th with 15-3. The points won’t matter until Sunday, but the young two-time runner-up would love to build up some separation – especially before the tour goes north.

Tough Day for My Generation – None of the 12 anglers 50 years or older is inside the cut. Greg Hackney is the closest, in 54th with 17-12, just 6 ounces out.

Great in Bed – If you caught Drew Benton’s (27th, 20-8) appearance on Tuesday Night Live, you understand that he’s one of the greatest bed fishermen in Bassmaster history. If nothing else, the deference of world-beater Mike Iaconelli giving Benton the front of the boat and standing by with the net told a story by itself. But that was under perfect conditions – sunny, a more-or-less empty lake, and a sizeable percentage of fish still spawning. Today on Live he proved his excellence even more, still catching bed fish on a lake where they’re mostly done, with not a ray of sunshine to be seen. In fact, much of the time it was a downpour. He isn’t even in the Top 25, but with three days left to fish conditions are arguably changing in his favor. Today’s 20-8 bag consisted exclusively of fish he’d sight fished – including a 7-pounder. “They weren’t all on beds, but they were all caught sight fishing,” he said. He wouldn’t say it directly, but he has to be salivating over tomorrow’s expected clearer and calmer conditions. “There’s a 30-pound bag swimming out there, for sure,” he added.

Twenties – Today there were 29 bags of 20 pounds or more, which is the same as the 29 combined caught on Day 1 here in 2023 and Day 1 in 2024. To more clearly highlight the disparity, in both of those years there were only two bags over 24 pounds – they belonged to the Day 1 leaders. By comparison, today there were seven of them. Want to take it one step further? Those two years had nine bags of 22 pounds or more on the first day of each, combined. Today there were 12.

Color of the Year – Chartreuse is always a player in Bassmaster events, but through the first half of this season it’s even more prevalent than usual – first Hank Cherry’s grub in his Guntersville win, and today we saw multiple competitors skittering chartreuse Super Flukes and fluke-style baits across the surface.

How Hard is it to Hit 100? – Prior to the event, several anglers suggested that 100 pounds is possible or even likely this week. Patrick Walters came somewhat close in 2024 with 93-13. That was hampered by a 19-13 catch on Day 2. But even if you removed that “off day,” he was still off the mark, averaging about 24-11 per day. In 2023, Drew Benton totaled 87 pounds over three days and his chances of a Century Belt were destroyed by a 14-pound catch on Day 3. He had 23-0, 23-9 and 26-7 on the other three days. That still just produces an average of 24-5. There are tons of 4- and 5-pounders in this lake, but it’s tough to put together four straight days of a 5-pound average. After Day 1, Wagner, Jacob Foutz and Taku Ito (3rd, 25-0) are the only anglers on pace for triple digits, but with six others at 23 or above, a 26- or 28-pound bag (or even the 30 that Benton suggested was possible) allows someone to make up ground and possibly even get ahead of the game.

Cody Meyer (4th, 24-10) – “That was probably the most fun I’ve had in the past five years of bass fishing.”

Cut Weight Math – 50th place today is 18-2. If that doubles, as most often happens, it’ll take 36-4 to fish on Saturday.The last time the Elites were here in 2024, 50th place on Day 1 was 16-6. Double that and you’d have 32-12, but the cut weight went down substantially to 30 pounds even. A drop happens occasionally on the Elite Series, but rarely to that extent. The cut weight also went down in 2023, but not quite as drastically. It was 17-5 on Day 1 and 34-3 on Day 2, just 7 ounces less than double.

Brandon Cobb (5th, 24-3) – “Believe it or not, it’s not that easy out there.”

Home State Survival – Brandon Cobb is the only South Carolinian in the Top 10, but four of five are inside the cut.

Ike’s Magic – Watching Mike Iaconelli (69th, 16-0) catch and cull and catch again – including one double – reminded us of why his excitement breathed additional life into the sport when he hit the scene. “Thirty-one years, this never gets old,” he told the camera, and most of the audience likely thought the same thing. When he’s on, no one in the game is a better educator or entertainer.

Secret Recipe – Bassmaster has long had the “baby pattern,” the antidote to the Sports Illustrated curse or the Madden Jinx. Produce a kid and you’re likely to have success on the water for a while. But now there may be a new magic elixir: An appearance on Dave Mercer’s podcast. “Always after Dave Mercer podcast, awesome, awesome tournament,” said Taku Ito. “So, we will film every week.”

Special Guest Star – The curb on the ramp.

Primed for a Big Comeback – If we presume that the cut weight will double to 36-4, and that anyone in the field could potentially catch a 25-pound bag, then everyone down to 94th place (Drew Cook, 11-14) could still be fishing on Saturday. Indeed, there are seven anglers within a pound of the current cut weight and 11 more within 2 pounds.

The Full Pipkens – It was unclear whether Trey McKinney lost his hat or just forgot to put it back on, but his hair was a topic of great discussion on Live. A similar fate befell Bryan New in Muskogee. Travis Manson approves.

Murray of the Day – Murray Head, composer of pop hit “One Night in Bangkok.”

The Limit Game – In 2023, 97 of 104 had a limit on Day 1. In 2024, 94 of 102 had a limit on Day 1. Today 93 out of 99 anglers captured five and brought them to weigh-in. Drew Cook, in 94th, had the smallest limit with 11-14. He trails John Cox (90th, 13-1), the highest-ranking competitor to weigh four or fewer.

Do You Remember? – Fred Roumbanis and Sugar.

Cue up Andrea McArdle — After today’s Build-an-Ark conditions, tomorrow promises to have high temperatures in the 70s again, but clouds (and perhaps a ray or two of sun) instead of rain, and light winds from the east. I still recommend bringing the raingear, but don’t forget your sun protection, either. Finally, charge your batteries. The herring are constantly on the move.