No, that’s not the gear ratio of the newest Quantum baitcaster. Those are the odds of a qualifier winning the 2013 Bassmaster Classic on Grand Lake, Okla., Feb. 22-24. Or at least those would be the odds if all things â angling acumen, experience, temperament and skill under the prevailing conditions â were equal. But, of course, they’re not â not even close. Those 53:1 odds are pretty accurate for the average angler in the Classic. For Kevin VanDam or some of the Classic rookies, they need some tweaking.
-Ken Duke
Nothing against Collins, the Weekend Series qualifier for the 2013 Bassmaster Classic, but he’s got a big hill to climb against some very steep competition. In seven previous tries, no Weekender has cracked the top 12 and only one has made the cut to fish on Sunday. The difference between the Classic and the Weekend Series is like the difference between shooting a bullet out of a gun or throwing it at your target.
Having met Lee, I can tell you that I like him and think he’s a very talented angler. Nevertheless, the gap between College B.A.S.S. and the Bassmaster Classic is so wide that Evel Kneivel wouldn’t have tried jumping it. That’s why I have some pretty long odds against the young man from Auburn University. The odds would be even worse, but he went to an SEC school.
Nothing against the B.A.S.S. Nation guys, either â and most particularly the ones with no Classic experience â but the smart money just has to be against them. With the exception of Bryan Kerchal’s win out of the Federation in 1994 (his second Classic appearance, by the way) and a handful of other performances, the Nation has been pretty dismal in the championship.
A couple of the B.A.S.S. Nation guys will probably make the cut to the top 25 and fish on Sunday. One of them might even break through and actually be competitive (top dozen or so), but how do we identify who that will be? These guys are wildcards, so I’m lumping them together at 100:1, except for the two who have previous Classic experience. I’m giving them slightly better odds.
Hey, my heart goes out to the B.A.S.S. Nation qualifiers when it comes to competing in the Classic. The odds are against them in every way. The field is better than they’ve ever faced before, and the tournament is longer. They won a lot of one- and two-day tournaments to get here, and now they have to go three days against Kevin VanDam, Edwin Evers and Aaron Martens. It’s not fair, but no one said it would be.
Right about now, a lot of the B.A.S.S. Nation guys are hating me for making them such long shots. Do I really have to say those three words to make you feel better? OK, I guess I will. Here they are: “Get over it.” In 40 Bassmaster Classics (there were no Federation qualifiers in 1971 or 1972), the Nation has had 175 of the 1,715 qualifiers. When you have just one win despite representing more than 10 percent of the field, there’s a word for it and that word is “underperforming.”
There’s a lot working against Dove in this Classic. For starters, he’s coming out of the B.A.S.S. Nation, so he’s facing tougher competition than he’s accustomed to (that’s not true for the Elite pros). Second, he’s the oldest angler in the field at 57.
With all due respect to the late Bryan Kerchal, the title of greatest angler in B.A.S.S. Nation history belongs to Zimbabwe’s Gerry Jooste, a five-time Classic qualifier. That said, I don’t like Jooste’s chances on Grand Lake in February. I did a little checking on Zimbabwe’s weather, and it just doesn’t get as cold there as we’re likely to experience on Grand Lake. That sort of experience could be important.
While it’s true that Classic rookies have won more championships than any other year class of qualifier (the last was Boyd Duckett in 2007), it’s also true that there are lots more Classic rookies than there are anglers in any other year class. That puts the odds in their favor.
He tells me he’s mostly a pitcher and flipper, but I watched Cherry win the Southern Open on Alabama’s Smith Lake with a spinning rod and 5-pound-test line, so I know he’s adaptable. Still, it’s his first Classic, and breaking through in your debut is not easy.
Winning a Central Open put Scanlon in the Classic despite a disappointing rookie season in the Elites. He plans to make the most of his chance, temporarily relocating to Grand Lake before the cutoff period.
This will be Adams’ second trip to “the show” in just three years. He finished 49th in 2011, but probably picked up a few pointers along the way. I’m betting he’s going to improve mightily … but win? Maybe not.
This Japanese pro surprised a lot of people in 2012, having his best year ever and qualifying for his first Classic. He’s yet to win with B.A.S.S., but tough conditions and a finesse bite on Grand Lake could play into his hands. He was 82nd and 67th at the two Elite events on Grand in 2006 and 2007, respectively, but he’s improved dramatically since then.
Starks has won a couple of Elite events, but never had a strong enough season to earn a Classic berth through AOY points. “Win-and-you’re-in” got him into the 2013 Classic, and he’s certainly capable of getting on a good spot or pattern and making the most of it. I give him a puncher’s chance. He was 63rd and 27th in Elite events on Grand in 2006 and 2007, respectively
He’s a Classic rookie … but not really. JVD has the advantage of having been to lots of championships with his Uncle Kevin over the years. He knows about the hype and distractions and he knows that he has to fish to win if he’s going to have any chance at all. That’s a big deal.
As one of just two Elite Series rookies to qualify for the Classic, Prince impressed in 2012. The Classic is a different ballgame, though, and coming out of Florida has got to be something of a disadvantage when you’re fishing Grand Lake. There’s not a single blade of grass out there.
Scandal rocked Wellman in 2011, but he’s made the most of his second chance, keeping his head down and showing that he can compete. Since it’s his first Classic and the first since the controversy, it may be a challenge for him to avoid distraction.
The 2012 Bassmaster Rookie of the Year started the Elite season like a jet engine but finished like a lawnmower in need of a tune up. Is he the real deal? (Get it? Card … the real deal?) We’ll find out in the upcoming Elite season. Can he put three good days together on Grand Lake? That’s the $500,000 question. I think he’s a long shot with some top-end potential.
It’s Gluszek’s first trip back to the big dance since 1999. He earned his way there with a counterintuitive pattern at the Northern Open on Cayuga Lake. He’s smart and willing to “think outside the box,” which is what it might take to win.
Some guys are great anglers, qualify for a lot of Classics, but never really break through on fishing’s biggest stage. Peter Thliveros was one of those guys. Ish Monroe is another. In seven tries, his best finish is 14th. One of these years he’ll do much better, but Grand Lake might not be the best fit for him. In the two Elite tournaments on Grand in the summers of 2006 and 2007, he was 78th and 22nd, respectively.
The Grand Lake Classic is not likely to be won in the shallows, and it’s not that likely to be won with a flippin’ stick. That hurt’s Lowen’s chances. I picked him to do well on the Red River in 2009 and 2012, but can’t see my way to give him good odds this time around. In two previous Elite stops on Grand (both in June), he was 36th and 13th.
He’s a wiz with a shallow crankbait or anything with a diving lip, but unless the weather is unseasonably warm, diving baits aren’t going to win at Grand Lake in February. Of course, Crews can do other things, but cranking is what he excels at, and I’d like his chances much better in that kind of tournament. His Elite history on Grand is very consistent. He was 42nd in 2006 and 46th in 2007, but those were summertime tournaments.
This Lane’s a dark horse. He’s got a lot of skills and is very resourceful. I think he can figure out a way to catch some fish on Grand. After getting his heart broken in a fourth place finish on Lay Lake back in 2010, Lane is ready to make his charge at bass fishing immortality. In the two Elite events on Grand (both in June), he was 41st and 49th.
The likeable California pro was the last man in through the Elites, and that has to give him an interesting perspective going into the Classic. It’s his fourth championship, and he knows second place is nowhere. Lintner is capable of big fireworks. The key for him is to have a strong first day. He was 82nd and 23rd in the two Elite stops at Grand.
He’s coming off the best season of his Elite career, but Grand Lake doesn’t figure to play to his strengths. Herren’s definitely a top talent, but that doesn’t always count for much in a three-day tournament where it’s more important to get hot and fish clean.
This will be the third consecutive Classic for the young Idaho pro, who still has something to prove. He finished a very respectable fourth in the 2011 Classic (still a whopping 14-4 off the lead, though), won one Elite event in 2012 and nearly won another, but he hasn’t shown the kind of consistency he needs to become a bona fide star. He’s a puncher â and a strong one â who could do very well on Grand, but who could just as easily crash and burn.
As good as Bobby Lane is â and he’s one of the 20 best sticks in the Elite Series â I’m just not crazy about the Florida guys in this Classic. They know how to fish grass, but there’s about as much grass on Grand as there is on the moon. Lane once won an Elite event on Kentucky Lake by fishing offshore ledges, but he was a long shot there, too.
He was strong at Lake Hartwell in 2008, finishing second to Alton Jones. That experience might serve him well on Grand, which should fish closer to Hartwell than any Classic venue in recent memory. He certainly has the skills and confidence necessary to win even though he finished 93rd at Grand in 2007.
I’m wondering how similar Grand might be to Lake Wylie, Quinn’s home lake on the North Carolina-South Carolina border. Wylie is older; Grand is deeper and bigger. If the weather’s warmer than expected, “Hardware” might get on a crankbait bite and make himself a factor. He’s solid when the bite’s away from the bank. In the two Elite events held on Grand (summers of 2006 and 2007), he was 27th and 75th, respectively.
When he’s hot, this guy is on fire! And he was very, very hot to begin the season in 2012 â an Open win on the Harris Chain, a Classic victory on the Red River and second place on Okeechobee all in the space of a couple of months. Lane is a much better tournament angler than he was just a few seasons ago, but Grand is probably not in his wheelhouse, and two in a row is not something you’d ever bet on. In earlier Elite events on Grand, he was 46th and 25th.
If you read what I said about Ish Monroe, it also applies to Randy Howell. He’s a terrifically talented angler who’s also remarkably consistent, but the Bassmaster Classic has been his kryptonite. His best finish in 10 previous tries is 11th. He’s also had some issues with closing tournaments out when he’s in or near the lead. In two previous Elite events on Grand (both in June), he finished 48th and 63rd.
He won his championship in 2004 and generally fares better when it’s warm. Still, he’s tremendously talented and the fact that he already has a title takes the pressure off. No one should be surprised if he has a big tournament. He has a spotty record in Elite events on Grand, finishing 30th in 2006 and 71st in 2007, but those were summertime tournaments.
Grigsby is simply the best angler in B.A.S.S. history who’s never won an AOY or Classic. He has nine career wins and will be fishing his 15th Classic. He’d be a remarkable champion â I think the best ever. He just needs to win it. Grand has been tough on him. In the two Elite events there, he was 75th and 59th, but they were in the summer.
I’ve picked him to do well many times in recent years, probably jinxing him in the process. If the fishing’s tough, that should work to his advantage. If I pick him to finish in the middle of the pack (and I do), that just might be enough for him to hoist the trophy. He was 35th and 32nd in the two Elite events on Grand (both held in June).
If it really were all about the attitude, “Big Show” might have half a dozen Classic trophies by now. No one has a better attitude than the Florida Elite pro. Unfortunately, no one residing in the state of Florida has ever won a Classic (Chris Lane was living in Alabama when he won last year) and Grand Lake has only been fair to middling for Scroggins over the years. He was 39th in 2006 and 12th in 2007 in two summertime Elite events.
Robinson qualified for his first Classic a year ago, and seems to have found himself as a pro angler after several tough years. Like most of the qualifiers, he’s getting help from talented locals who know Grand. They tell me he’s sure to be in the top five. He finished 7th the last time the Elites were there, so his confidence should be sky high.
In assessing his chances to win a second Classic in 2013, the thing I like most about Duckett is the fact that he’s not afraid to finish last. That kind of hero or zero attitude goes a long way at the championship. There’s just no second place, and the 2007 champ has always known that. By the way, the same year he won the Classic he finished 8th at Grand.
The G-Man’s skills are almost antithetical to what it takes to win a Bassmaster Classic. At the Classic, you need to find that magic spot or nail down that pattern-within-a-pattern that everyone else misses and milk it for three days. Swindle does best when he has to cobble something together with a little of this and a little of that. He’s the Dr. Frankenstein of tournament fishing (that’s a compliment), but it’s not necessarily the best route to the Classic trophy. On Grand, he was 61st and 82nd in two previous Elite events.
Rojas usually excels early in the season, so I’m actually a little surprised that he hasn’t won a Classic already. He won’t be catching them on Kermit at Grand Lake, but he’s got plenty of other weapons in his arsenal. What’s a little perplexing is his history on Grand. In 2006 he was 5th, but in 2007 he was 90th. Both of those tournaments were in June. With the Classic in February, that history probably doesn’t matter.
I’m not sure why Mark Davis seems so much older than he is. Maybe it’s because he’s wiser than his years or because he’s already accomplished just about everything you can do in the sport. At 49 there’s still plenty of gas in his tank, and I think he’s going to make a serious run at another Classic or two. Grand Lake should set up pretty well for him.
Reese is back after missing the championship in 2012. It was his chance to return to the fishery where he won it all in 2009, and sitting it out had to sting. I expect he’ll be back with a vengeance in 2013. He has laser-like focus when he’s “on,” and knows what it takes to win. Grand, however, has been tough on him. In the two Elite stops on Grand in 2006 and 2007, he finished 70th and 67th, respectively. Those were both in June, though, and it’ll be a much different venue in February.
Twenty-to-one might not seem that great until you realize it’s better than twice as good as the odds for the average angler in the field. I absolutely believe that DeFoe’s going to win one of these things (and an AOY or two … or three). Why not this year? Honestly, though, I like his chances better on Lake Guntersville in 2014. I’m probably jinxing him early by picking him to win that one before anyone’s even qualified.
He finally got a B.A.S.S. win at the end of the 2011 Elite season. He took back-to-back third place finishes at the 2001 and 2002 Classics. He’s more skilled than most of the anglers who have won the championship â but that’s true of several guys in this year’s field. If he finds three days’ worth of fish, he’ll be right there at the end.
Like Edwin Evers, the only things missing from Faircloth’s impressive résumé are an AOY and a Classic. Being from Texas, he’s familiar with these types of waters, and he’s strong with a jerkbait and a jig. The fact that he’s not from Oklahoma and won’t feel that local pressure just might be enough to tilt things in his favor. In the two Elite events on Grand, he finished 101st and 16th, so his track record there is a bit of a roller coaster.
Despite winning an Elite event in 2012 and making a run or two at the AOY title, Jones has been mostly flying under the radar since his 2008 Classic win. I like his chances because I think Grand Lake might play out similar to the way Lake Hartwell fished five years before. Jones is tremendously versatile and will find a way to compete. Another Classic win would mean a lot to him. In the two previous Elite events on Grand, he was 33rd and 19th.
Ike hasn’t won a B.A.S.S. event since 2006, when he was AOY. He hasn’t made a real run at the Classic since 2009, when he was runner up to Reese on the Red River. He hasn’t stirred up any real controversy since the ’06 Classic with the flag incident. I keep waiting for an Ike breakout. Maybe it’ll happen on Grand. He has reason to like the lake. In two summertime Elite events there he was 10th and 18th.
The defending Toyota Tundra Bassmaster Angler of the Year has lots of experience on Grand Lake. His Kansas home is not that far away by local standards. I picked him to win the Classic last year and probably jinxed him in the process. This year I’ll back off a bit and give him a chance. In the two Elite tournaments on Grand, he was 18th and 35th.
This guy has paid his dues! He’s a two-time runner up in the Bassmaster Classic and a three-time runner up in the FLW Championship. All he lacks is a win! I like his chances more if the weather is unseasonably warm. No matter what, though, it won’t be over until Biffle weighs in on Day 3. In two previous Elite tournaments on Grand, he was 34th and 30th.
The Natural’s going to catch ’em. There’s absolutely no doubt about that. Will he catch them better than everyone else? I’d never bet against it. If it’s a jerkbait and deep water tournament, he’ll be a real factor. In fact, he figures to be a factor no matter how it plays out. Grand’ been pretty good to him. In two previous Elite tournaments he placed 9th and 15th.
The Arkansan has won here before and squeaked into this Classic just as the door was closing. You can bet he’ll be going for broke; he knows what this tournament is all about. McClelland’s skill with a jerkbait and jig â two baits that should figure prominently in the tournament â should serve him very well. In the two Elite tournaments held on Grand in 2006 and 2007, he was 1st and 11th, respectively.
He’s definitely the local favorite, living about an hour from Grand Lake. You’d be hard-pressed to find an Oklahoman who’s not picking Christie to win â even over Edwin Evers and Tommy Biffle â but he’s still a Classic rookie and has never fished a tournament this big. I certainly like his chances, though. The ice water in his veins just might match the ice water in Grand Lake.
E-squared has never won a B.A.S.S. event on Grand, but he’s come dangerously close just about every time he’s been there. In two summertime Elite tournaments on the lake, he placed 4th and 3rd. He’s from the Sooner State and a relative “local” to Grand. About the only things missing from his impressive résumé are an AOY title and a Classic victory. He’s a great pick to notch the latter in February.
KVD has won on Grand Lake before, he’s won four Bassmaster Classics and nothing â absolutely nothing â is going to rattle him. He knows how to manage a crowd (and he’ll have one), and he knows there’s no second place in the championship. Win or lose, he’s going to leave it all on the water. If he’s in the mix after Day 2, watch out! He’s still the best in the business and launches as the tournament favorite.
These odds do not represent B.A.S.S. as a whole, but rather the opinion of our Senior Editor Ken Duke. If you happen to have a different opinion please let him know in the comments below!