Rathdrum, Idaho
Since returning to the Bassmaster Elite Series in 2020, Palaniuk has had 12 Top 15 finishes in Elite and Basspro.com Bassmaster Opens events, including three victories. His most recent victory came in the Northern Open on the James River in early May. So, if youâre keeping score, heâs now won a B.A.S.S. Nation Championship, a Bassmaster Open, five Elite Series events and a Bassmaster Angler of the Year title. Since heâs publicly stated he wants to win every title B.A.S.S. has to offer, that only leaves one mountain to climb â the one heâll face during the Academy Sports + Outdoors Bassmaster Classic presented by Huk at Ray Roberts. At this point, whoâs betting against him?
Ashville, Ala.
Since B.A.S.S. has never held a major event on Ray Roberts, thereâs as little known about this fishery as any Classic venue in recent memory. What is known, however, is that Herren claimed perhaps his biggest professional victory there back in 2016 when the Toyota Texas Bass Classic was still pitting the top pros from B.A.S.S. and FLW in an annual big-deal kind of thing. I talked to Herren recently, and he looked like the cat that had just eaten the canary as he detailed how things could be lining up for him to repeat that performance.
Summerville, S.C.
Two thoughts on Walters: First, if momentum means anything, he has to be one of the favorites to win any tournament he fishes right now. He triple-qualified for this event last year by winning an Open on Lake Hartwell, winning an Elite Series event on Lake Fork and finishing third in the Bassmaster Angler of the Year standings. Heâs earned Century Belts twice in his last 11 events â both on Lake Fork. That brings us to our second thought on Walters. Heâs obviously comfortable in Texas, and if Ray Roberts sets up anything like Fork, look out.
Leander, Texas
Wendlandt, a Texas pro who won last yearâs Angler of the Year title by being the most consistent angler on the Elite Series, has some crucial experience on pro fishingâs biggest stage. In four previous Classic appearances, heâs finished 13th or better three times.
New Market, Minn.
If momentum was the only measuring stick, Feider would be the hands-down favorite. Heâs quite possibly the hottest angler on the planet right now, with Elite Series finishes this season of third, 29th, 25th, sixth, sixth, 12th and 24th. Plus, he has that laidback mentality with a touch of killer instinct that most past Classic winners have had. He fits the mold perfectly â and oh man, the party heâd throw.
Fort Worth, Texas
Despite traveling a bit of a winding road the past decade (from California to Nevada to Texas), Zaldainâs a Texan now â and that puts him into the upper tier of this discussion. Plus, he had his best finish of the 2021 Elite Series season last month at Lake Fork (fifth place). If it turns into a big-bait tournament with anglers waiting for only a few key bites a day, it could be his time.
Lincolnton, N.C.
Cherry earns automatic respect as the reigning champion, even though only three anglers have managed to win back-to-back crowns. Heâs also been on a bit of a tear this season with two Top 10s and three Top 20s.
Collinsville, Miss.
Several anglers (Jack Chancellor and Jordan Lee come to mind) have come close to major victories in regular-season events, only to fall short repeatedly, before finally reaching the winnerâs circle in the Classic. Mosley seems to fit the profile of a guy who could make that leap. He has four career second-place finishes, including two this season, and heâs made the Top 10 in five of his last nine events, dating back to last year. He seems to only need one tiny, little break to put it all together.
Cavan, Canada
For three straight years, itâs been a safe bet that at least one Johnston boy â Cory or his brother Chris â would be in contention at virtually every Elite Series event. Cory has 12 Top 10 finishes in just 30 events with B.A.S.S., and seems poised to hoist a heavy trophy at some point. Because of all that, weâre ignoring the fact that heâs struggled a bit on Texas fisheries and finished 47th last year in his only career Classic appearance.
Benton, Ark.
Blaylock is a seasoned pro who finished third at last yearâs Classic on Guntersville. He has 16 career Top 10s, including one last year on Lake Fork. Success in Texas is one of three or four factors that can really help your odds on this list.
Granbury, Texas
There was much discussion during our annual Classic Odds Gallery Selection Party about giving such good odds to an Opens qualifier (Bird earned his Classic berth by winning the 2020 Central Open on Neely Henry). But if ever one was deserving of such consideration, itâs Bird. Besides being a Texas legend, Bird has 11 Top 10 finishes in 64 tournaments with B.A.S.S. â and he lives less than two hours from Ray Roberts.
Carmel, Tenn.
Mullins provides excellent value at this spot, especially if the Classic turns into an offshore cranking event â which seems a distinct possibility in Texas in mid-June. After finishing second in the 2020 AOY race, Mullins is off to a tough start in 2021. But he knows the Classic drill, having finished 13th in his first appearance last year, and the conditions could set up perfectly to suit his strengths.
Chickamauga, Ga.
Gross moved up this list a bit when the tournament shifted from March to June due to lingering pandemic restrictions. Like Mullins, Gross could be a major player if this turns into an offshore event. He picked up his first win last year fishing offshore brushpiles at Lake Eufaula. This is his first Classic appearance, and that always has the potential to come into play.
Auburn, Ala.
Many describe Ray Roberts as âsimilar to Fork, but with fewer big fish to go around.â If thatâs the case and the tournament turns into a test of who has the most patience to fish for a few big bites, Kennedy and his swimbaits could play bigtime. Heâs fished nine previous Classics with a pair of Top 10s, including a second-place finish in the Lake Conroe event out of Houston in 2017.
Temple, Texas
Talley â the epitome of a âBig Texanâ â qualified for the Classic with a remarkably consistent 2020 season during which he made eight straight semifinal cuts. That included his first career victory on Guntersville. Heâs had a tough 2021 season, finishing no higher than 33rd in seven events, but he seems due.
Odenville, Ala.
Speaking of guys who are due, the 2019 AOY winner in the midst of a difficult season, having made only three semifinal cuts in seven tournaments. Before this slump, Canterbury was one of the most consistent anglers on the Elite Series for two years, and he hasnât just forgotten how to fish. Heâs flying under the radar a bit, which makes him dangerous.
Chiba, Japan
One of the hottest anglers on the planet, Ito has eight Top 10 finishes in 21 total tournaments with B.A.S.S. Upon his arrival with the Elite Series, he proclaimed himself a âdeep-water specialist,â but back-to-back Top 10s on the Sabine River and Lake Fork seem to suggest he can catch them anywhere in the water column. Also, he may be the most laidback angler in the field. Heâs not likely to be frightened by the big stage.
Peterborough, Canada
It might be a little foolish to place Chris so far away from his brother Cory on this list, especially since heâs had back-to-back Top 10s (fourth at Sabine River and ninth at Lake Fork) in Texas this year. They share everything â and truth is, theyâre interchangeable and both have a genuine shot in this event.
Greenwood, S.C.
Cobb has two career B.A.S.S. victories, including one at Lake Fork in 2019 when he caught a four-day total of 114 pounds. This will be a very different event, but he gets points for that massive Texas success.
Fayetteville, Tenn.
Lester checks several boxes coming into this event. Heâs had a solid 2021 season with three Top 15 performances on the Elite Series and Opens circuit. He also has good Classic experience with five appearances, including back-to-back Top 10s the last two years. Finally, heâs a versatile angler who can catch them shallow, deep or in transition.
Salisbury, N.C.
Card has three previous Classic appearances, including a ninth-place showing last year at Guntersville. He has two Top 5 finishes this year, including a fourth-place showing at Lake Fork.
Newcomerstown, Ohio
Before a 53rd-place finish on Lake Fork, Shryock had made the semifinal cut at 13 straight events. Thatâs the definition of âmomentum.â
Midway, Fla.
Cook has seven Top 10s and 12 Top 20s during his career with B.A.S.S. and had a solid 22nd-place finish in his only previous Classic. His odds would have likely been better if the tournament had been held on its originally scheduled date in March with many more fish in the shallow prespawn phase.
Blakely, Ga.
Like Cook, Bentonâs odds would likely be better if a shallow-water prespawn event was expected. But he still gets points for Classic experience, having fished three previous Classics, including an 18th-place finish at Houston in 2017.
Keewatin, Canada
Gussy has had an up-and-down season, but he recorded his first victory by capitalizing on a deep-water bite on the Tennessee River in Knoxville. He could be a player in an offshore event, but heâll likely have to target largemouth instead of the spots and smallmouth that have been good to him in other offshore scenarios.
Newnan, Ga.
Frazier has had a rocky 2021 Elite Series season, but heâs a versatile angler who wonât be intimidated by an offshore event. He has four previous Classic appearances, including two 14th-place showings and a fifth-place finish last year at Guntersville.
Coalgate, Okla.
Does an Oklahoma guy have an advantage fishing in his neighboring state of Texas? Maybe. Palmer finished 24th and 35th in two Texas events this year. He also has some Classic experience, finishing 15th in his first appearance at Guntersville last year.
Fairview, N.C.
Whitaker finished fifth in last yearâs AOY standings and has one Top 10 finish in an otherwise difficult season this year. He finished 30th and 31st in two previous Classics.
Opelika, Ala.
Another Classic rookie, Welcher has made the semifinal cut at all seven Elite Series events this year, including two top 13 showings.
Russelville, Ark.
Hartman is another who falls into the category of being due for a strong showing. After winning two events in 2019, he had an up-and-down season in 2020 and has been struggling big time so far this season. He finished 30th and 36th in two previous Classics. But again, heâs a proven talent whoâs overdue to make some noise.
Debary, Fla.
This guy fishes everywhere (sometimes two or three places at once, it seems), and thereâs no reason to believe he canât locate fish at Ray Roberts â regardless of where theyâre hanging out in mid-June. He finished 20th and 21st in two previous Classics.
Reeds Spring, Mo.
Morgenthalerâs resume kind of reminds me of the one that caused me to give Todd Auten long odds last year. Of course, Auten responded by finishing second and very nearly claiming his first Classic crown. Morgenthaler, in six Classics, hasnât finished higher than 23rd. Heâs had a tough season this year, but he did finish eighth at Fork in April.
Brookville, Ind.
This tournament was shaping up to be right in Lowenâs wheelhouse when it was expected to be a shallow-water prespawn event in March. But the shift to June moved it away from his area of expertise. The biggest thing Lowen has on his side is 10 previous Classic appearances â the most of any angler in the field.
Shelby, N.C.
Arey finished 43rd in his only previous Classic and had endured a dismal 2021 season before an 18th-place finish at Fork and a fifth-place showing at Neely Henry.
Naugatuck, Conn.
The tournament is shaping up to be a deep-water event. But will it be the kind of deep-water bite that fits Muellerâs northern-built style? He has fished three previous Classics, finishing as high as second in 2014 as a B.A.S.S. Nation qualifier.
Lake Wylie, S.C.
As I mentioned with an earlier slide, I doubted Auten before last yearâs Classic, giving him some really bad odds because of his past struggles on Guntersville. Then he finished second. So, trying to predict where heâll finish on a lake where B.A.S.S. has never held a major event may be a little beyond me.
Belmont, N.C.
New won the first Open he ever fished and the first Elite Series event he ever fished, earlier this year on the St. Johns River. So, what are the odds of him winning his first Classic? Not good. Could it happen? Absolutely. But the odds of it happening are slim. It would be an incredible story.
Lansing, Mich.
Pipkens has made noise in deep-water, offshore events, but he still has to prove he can perform on the Classic stage. In three Classic appearances, heâs finished no higher than 41st.
Wagener, S.C.
Williamson has fished four previous Classics, including an 11th-place finish at Guntersville last year. But heâs been mired in a dismal slump this season, finishing no higher than 30th in seven events.
Montevallo, Ala.
Davis has had a tough time on the 2021 Elite Series and has only one previous Classic experience (an 18th-place showing at Guntersville last year). But he has enjoyed some success on a big stage, winning the Forrest Wood Cup in 2018.
Eden Prairie, Minn.
Another Classic rookie, Felix was having a really tough 2021 Elite Series season before turning things around a bit with a pair of Top 10s at Lake Fork and Neely Henry.
Bivins, Texas
Whatley is a Texan with a spotty record in his home state. He Finished fifth in last yearâs event on Fork, but then stumbled to a 35th-place finish this year at the Sabine River and 64th in the next event at Fork.
Central City, Ky.
Robertson had an amazing year on the 2020 Opens circuit and has made the semifinal cut in four of seven Elites this year. But his lone Classic appearance was a 48th-place finish at Knoxville in 2019. That week seemed loaded with distractions for a talented angler who could be a threat to win anywhere with the right focus.
Bokoshe, Okla.
Jones has two wins and four Top 10s with B.A.S.S. â all in Oklahoma. He finished 39th in his only previous Classic appearance in 2014 on Lake Guntersville. The idea of an Opens qualifier winning isnât quite as outlandish as a Nation, College or Team Championship competitor pulling off the feat. But it would be a mammoth accomplishment.
Richmond, Va.
Loughran has made the semifinal cut in four of seven Elite Series events this year and finished sixth at Fork last year. Heâs fishing his first Classic at age 50.
Catawba, N.C.
LeHew has made five of seven semifinal cuts this year on the Elite Series, but his highest finish was 24th place at Lake Fork. He finished 28th in his only previous Classic last year.
Tokoname Aichi, Japan
Matsushita qualified by winning the 2020 Central Open on Sam Rayburn (another noted Texas fishery), and he has already had a strong 2021 Opens season with finishes of 14th, 33rd and 16th. But the lights are about to get much brighter.
Shepherdsville, Ky.
Williams qualified by winning the 2020 Central Open on Lewisville Lake, yet another Texas fishery. But with the differences between Lewisville and Ray Roberts, they may as well be on different planets.
DeBary, Fla.
Carson qualified by winning the 2020 Eastern Open on Lay Lake where he targeted shoreline grass. Like most Florida anglers, thatâs where he seems to excel. Unfortunately, heâs not likely to find the winning fish around grass on Ray Roberts.
Eleva, Wisc.
I have this discussion with someone every year, and Iâll be glad to have it with you this year. Iâm not saying a Nation qualifier canât win. Can B.A.S.S. Nation champion and current Elite Series pro Pat Schlapper win? Of course he can. So can Blake Sylvester or Justin Kerr. Theyâve got lines in the water, they can win. Iâm just saying since itâs only happened once in 50 years (Bryan Kerchal, 1994), the odds of it happening are very, very slim. Remember, this is all about the odds of a Nation qualifier winning pro fishingâs biggest event. Not his odds of weighing in a giant bag like Paul Mueller did in 2014. Not his odds of having a strong showing, as many Nation qualifiers have. But his odds of winning â and nothing else.
Plaquemine, La.
See previous slide.
Lake Havasu, Ariz.
See two previous slides.
Cullman, Ala.
Just as itâs unlikely â but not impossible â for a Nation qualifier to win the Classic, the odds of it happening for a Team Championship qualifier are quite long. Qualifying through the Team Championship circuit is an amazing feat. But going from that environment to the Classic is like going straight from the Friday night lights of high school football to the NFL. Itâd be an amazing story Iâd enjoy writing very much.
McKendree University
Imagine going from the team environment of the college circuit to fishing solo against the top pros in the world. Just imagine it. Youâre launching a boat youâve owned for only a few months with Brandon Palaniuk to your left and Bill Lowen to your right. Theyâve fished 19 Classics between them. Thatâs nearly as many years as youâve been on this earth. It could happen â and it would be a phenomenal story â but the odds are long.