PARIS, Tenn. — Despite dramatically unsettled water conditions, the bass fishing is expected to underscore the renewed vitality of one of the South’s premier fisheries.
What will the 231 anglers encounter in the next three days at the St. Croix Bassmaster Open at Kentucky Lake/Lake Barkley presented by SEVIIN?
The answers vary and today’s Day 1 weigh-in will make the answers clearer. What is not clear is the water clarity, which will be the most dominate factor in the outcome of the tournament when it concludes on Saturday.
In mid-February, more than 10 inches of rain fell in western Kentucky and the surrounding area, causing Kentucky Lake to rise by nine feet. The Tennessee Valley Authority lowered the lake at least six feet over 11 days leading up to this week’s tournament.
Adding to the significant rise and fall of the lake level was a practice-period winter storm that passed over the region. Strong southerly winds packed with rain collided with a powerful arctic cold front that dropped temperatures from the 60s into the 40s. On Wednesday the southerly winds included gusts to 30 mph.
The sum of the whole caused muddy, cold-water conditions, neither of which are favored for triggering the early spring movements of prespawn largemouth. Even so, the lake is expected to show its potential for historically producing impressive weights during springtime tournaments.
“The bass are in between winter and prespawn,” said Matt Robertson, Bassmaster Elite Series pro and a native of the area. “The weather that came through really repositioned them from where they should be.”
Robertson predicted it will take 22- 23-pounds each day to seal the win. Twenty-pound bags will be a high mark, and then weights will drop off significantly from there.
“The scoping bite won’t happen,” he continued. “The main lake is blown out, really muddy.”
Finding clearer water will be the goal for the next three days. Strong southerly winds with gusts to 30 mph, are pushing the mud to the north and toward Kentucky Lake Dam. The TVA generation schedule pushed 111,000 cubic feet per second through the dam.
“The south wind and generation schedule will pull that muddy water out into the channel and move it downriver quicker,” said Mark Menendez, another native Kentuckian who calls the lake home. “The bays aren’t as muddy, but the bass aren’t actively moving into those areas as they should be.”
The Day 1 forecast is for northwesterly winds at 5 to 10 mph with sunny conditions. Increasing clouds with a low of 35 degrees and calm winds are expected Thursday night. Yet another flip flop occurs on Friday with southwesterly winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 30 mph and cloudy conditions.
That will make locking into a consistent pattern a bust. Whoever wins will adapt to changing conditions, from wind to water temperature and more.
