DURANT, Okla. — If this were a typical Bassmaster Elite Series tournament, only the top three anglers in Sunday’s Top 12 would realistically have a chance to win. Those are leader Casey Ashley, second-place Gerald Swindle and third-place Greg Hackney, with the latter two being 3 pounds, 10 ounces and 3-12 behind Ashley, respectively.
But something about the rapidly dropping Lake Texoma water level, the improving water clarity and the randomness of the bites the leaders keep talking about makes you wonder if something out of the ordinary might occur on the final day of the GEICO Bassmaster BASSfest presented by Choctaw Casino and Resort.
“There have been two 20-pound bags caught in this tournament,” said Randall Tharp, who is in seventh place, 9-6 behind Ashley. “You go out the final day and catch 22 pounds, you can win this tournament from 12th place. There’s no doubt.”
On Friday, Tharp caught the biggest bass of the tournament so far – a 7-6. The old rule of thumb is you can’t make up a deficit on the final day that’s larger than the biggest bass of the tournament. There’s nothing scientific about that. It’s more just common sense. If it holds true, as it almost always has, that would mean only Ashley, Swindle and Hackney have a chance to win. Rick Clunn is fourth, 7-15 behind Ashley.
But, again, there’s so much change in the air that the finale has a different feel to it than usual.
“You never know where you’re bites are coming from,” Ashley said. “It’s mind-boggling. You know you’re in contention to win, but there’s nothing you can do to make it happen. You might see a bush and think you’re going to catch one out of it, but you don’t. You might spend 15 minutes on that one bush, then flip something dead behind it and catch one. That’s how random it is.”
Having said that, Ashley’s weights have been consistently strong: 20-1 on Day 1, 14-9 on Day 2 and 17-5 on Day 3 for his 51-15 total weight. He had the big bag of the tournament on Days 1 and 3.
“I’m using the same bait every day, fishing the same stretches, but you never catch one out of the same bush,” Ashley said.
Actually, that’s not quite true. Ashley caught a 5 ½-pounder the first day and a 6-pounder the second day off the same tree, but on Friday, “I never had a bite off of it,” he said.
Swindle appears to be the man on the rise. He was in 15th place on Day 1 with 14-11, moved up to third with 17-10 on Day 2, and jumped one spot to second with 16-0 Friday.
“It’s changing by the minute,” Swindle said of Lake Texoma. “I don’t want to have a pre-conceived notion of what I’m going to do (Sunday).
“I think the biggest key here is don’t have a plan. Don’t have a plan.”
This has been a flipping stick tournament for the top three especially, and most of the other finalists as well. The water level at Texoma has dropped a half-foot a day during the first three days. Saturday’s off-day for BASSfest festivities threw another unusual wrinkle into Sunday’s finale. The lake will be about a foot lower than when these anglers left it Friday afternoon.
But it will still be about three feet above the normal summer pool level of 619 feet above sea level. There will continue to be plenty of flooded bushes and trees to pitch and flip a bait around.
“Dropping the water is not going to do anything but help,” Ashley said “It’s going to bring those fish back to the outside. When it drops, you get new targets, so it feels like you’re fishing new stuff. It should make it even better, to be honest.”
But that falling and clearing water may open some opportunities that haven’t been there before, like, for instance, a topwater bite.
Swindle caught a 6-pounder on a buzzbait on Day 1, and had another big one hit it on Day 3.
“Every morning I allow myself about an hour of warm-up,” Swindle said. “I’m just kind of loosening up my tendons, slinging that buzzbait around. I’m like a diesel. You’ve got to let me idle for a little bit. I had one jump over a (Zara) Spook (Friday morning). I went back in there with a flipping stick and caught him.
“I’m going to gamble for an hour in the morning and try to catch a big one with a buzzbait or a Spook or a Pop R. I’m going to go with topwater for an hour and try to make something happen.”
Hackney plans to keep the same two flipping sticks on his boat deck that he’s had there all week.
“I’ve got a lot of stuff rigged in preparation for if I need to do something different,” Hackney said. “But I’ve get to get that sign that I need to change.”
Even on Friday, when Hackney got only six bites all day, instead of the usual 10 or 11 per day he’s been getting, Hackney stuck with the two baits he’s been flipping. Hackney hasn’t felt the winds of change blowing just yet.
“I’m liking the day off,” he said Friday. “I’m liking the water is going to go down. It will be difficult, but I’m going to have a shot. I’m five flips away from winning this tournament. I feel pretty good about that.”