If you’ve spent any amount of time on Bassmaster.com, you’ve read stuff from Ken Duke. It’s been a while since I recall reading about Duke’s big fish deficit rule, but it’s time to consider what the Top 25 must do for the win—or if they even have a chance.
Duke’s theory implies that if an angler is behind the leader by a weight equal to or greater than the weight of the tournament’s big fish, they’re very unlikely to catch enough fish to overcome the leader and win.
Let’s put it another way: If the tournament’s big fish weighs 7 pounds, and a specific contender is sitting in fifth place and out of first by 7 1/2 pounds, he is fishing for a better check and not the win.
It’s a theory because a couple of anglers have actually overcome the odds, and mounted an impressive comeback—so, it can happen.
After a tough day on Grand Lake, the bar has been set by Jason Christie’s two-day total of 37-9, and considering Marty Robinson’s 7-pounder during Day 1, the insurmountable deficit is approximately 7 pounds. Looking through the Top 25, here’s who has a chance at winning the 2016 Bassmaster Classic based on Ken Duke’s big fish deficit rule.
If Jason Christie doesn’t blow out the field on the final day, the Top 5 anglers who have a shot at the title include Aaron Martens in fifth place with 30-5, Bill Lowen in fourth with 30-8, Edwin Evers in third with 31-4 and Todd Faircloth in second place with 31-14.
These guys have a shot, but Christie needs to really struggle for that to become a reality, and the remaining Top 5 must do especially well. Based on Christie’s dominating performance thus far, anything but a Christie Classic Championship is a fat chance. We won’t know for sure until the final weigh-in is concluded, and the 2016 Bassmaster Classic champion is crowned.
Sixth place through 25th are fishing for a check tomorrow, not the trophy. Clearly, I’m not a statistics guy, but if you enjoy making predictions and keeping up on the daily blogs and photo galleries, Ken Duke’s big fish deficit rule should be considered during the final day of competition at the 2016 Bassmaster Classic.