PALATKA, Fla. — The warming trend that’s come to northern Florida over the last few days is now forecast to extend through the weekend. And it has perked up the predictions about what’s going to happen over the next four days when the 2021 Bassmaster Elite Series season kicks off Thursday at 7 a.m. ET with the AFTCO Bassmaster Elite at the St. Johns River.
“It could be a really exciting tournament,” said Florida angler John Cox. “It was like they were kind of holding off on Monday. But the way the weather is setting up, it’s got real potential to get close to that 100-pound mark. We couldn’t have asked for better conditions.”
It’s not like that’s unheard of here. Rick Clunn came oh so close to the century mark in 2019 when his four-day, five-bass-per-day limits totaled 98 pounds, 14 ounces. That’s what the St. Johns River is capable of producing when conditions are right. When they’re not, like last year when the tournament was postponed two days and eventually shortened to three days, Paul Mueller won it with a total of 47-6.
It could still go wrong this week. Heavy fog the last two mornings, if it continues, has a chance to shorten a day or force a postponement. But let’s focus on the positive for now. Bass are moving shallow in waves with the warming trend. Cox believes the overcast, rainy weather forecast for the weekend will only make the fishing better.
“The fishing is going to get so good those last two days,” he said.
It’s going to be a spawning tournament, but not exclusively a sight-fishing tournament. The St. Johns River is a decidedly different fishery since high water wiped out the eelgrass and much other shallow vegetation here a couple of years ago. Big bass are going to be caught on spawning beds, but many will be in places where the anglers can’t see them.
“It’s going to be a spawning tournament, in general,” said Patrick Walters, the South Carolina angler who topped the century mark in the last Elite Series event of the 2020 season when he totaled 104-12 at Texas’ Lake Fork in November. “I won’t be surprised to see a 30-pound (five-bass limit) the first day.”
Veteran Florida pro Bernie Schultz agreed, saying, “I think the winner is going to be catching them bed-fishing. Somebody is probably going to wreck them really good one day, and pretty good another day.”
Drew Benton’s first season on the Elite Series was 2016, and he finished fourth at the St. Johns River, when the eelgrass and hydrilla were still abundant.
“I thought it was one of the finest places in the world to sight fish,” Benton said. “There was grass on the east side and the west side, so no matter which way the wind blew you could get out of it. But you can’t do that anymore, and it’s changed the way you have to fish here.
“There are going to be a lot of fish bedding where you can’t see them. I feel like the tournament is going to be won by someone flipping (lily) pads.”
Whether the anglers will be able to see them or not, big bass are moving shallow with the first sustained warm front of the year at the St. Johns River. That promises to make for an exciting start to the 2021 Elite Series season.