Play the numbers game

Strip away the beautiful natural scenery, forget about the mostly pleasant weather and anglers will still adore Lake Champlain. Why? Because it is absolutely loaded with bass — the green ones and the brown ones.

Sounds like a dream scenario, but a catch-fest kinda lake can quickly become a nightmare for the tournament angler that becomes so enamored with a bent rod that they lose sight of the necessary numerical calculations.

Summarily, 3-pound smallmouth are not hard to find on Lake Champlain; and while everyone of these firecrackers is a blast to catch, 3-pound smallmouth will not win an Elite tournament. That’s why the wheels of analysis and time management turn constantly behind those polarized sunglasses.

Gotta have a Plan A, B and C.

Gotta have a target weight.

Gotta judge each catch and factor it into emerging or declining trends.

Most importantly — gotta know when to pull the plug.

Day by Day

We saw such key decisions on Friday, as Hartman decided to start his day on the spot that quickly yielded a 4-pound smallmouth at the very end of Day 1. Returning the next morning, Hartman tallied a solid limit in short order; but when he determined he wasn’t upgrading as he needed, he moved north, where he found two late-day fish that kept him in the lead.

Feider also made a key move yesterday. After collecting a good bag of smallmouth on a grassy flat, he moved to the marina that produced a 5-2 largemouth on Day 1 and cracked another “bucket head” — this one, a 6-6 that currently leads the Phoenix Boats Big Bass standings.

Day 3 began with strong morning action, as BASSTrakk had two-day leader Jamie Hartman, Seth Feider, Koby Kreiger, Dave Mullins and Micah Frazier around the 15-pound mark by 8:30.

That’s certainly the right way to start a day, but these pros know there’s a lot more work to be done. With the general consensus that a Champlain win will require pretty close to a 20-pound daily average, you can bet that each of the top-40 anglers fishing today are well aware of where they entered Day 3 and what they need to do to reach Championship Sunday.

Hartman demonstrated the right plug-pulling judgement this morning by enduring a dry spell and sticking with his opening spot until it produced a key upgrade. BASSTrakk showed Hartman boating a 4-4 at 8:19. Nearly 90 minutes later, he replaced an earlier keeper with a 4-pounder that pushed him to an unofficial weight of 17 1/2 pounds.

 

 

Change Is on the Way

Complicating everyone’s calculations, tomorrow’s weather forecast indicates cloudy, rain conditions with southeast winds of 10-20 mph and potential 30-mph gusts. Everyone will fish the same lake, but you can bet that the Elites mining Champlain’s treasure have already considered the possibility of leaner Day-4 opportunity.

While some anglers have “saved” fish on earlier days, today will see no spot management. They’re gonna lean on ‘em. That means get while the gettin’s good and worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

Champlain may still produce competitive catches in rough weather, but this lake’s long, north-south layout makes it a wave factory. Stirred water and dim skies will also put a damper on the wide-open smallmouth bite anglers have enjoyed during the sunny, calm conditions we’ve seen for most of the tournament (with the exception of a Day-1 storm).

Largemouth tend to become more active in low light periods and finding the right bank on a windy day can be pure bass fishing gold for those slinging crankbaits, spinnerbaits and bladed jigs. The exposed flats that many have been fishing could get blown out, so we may see some of the top-10 fishing different scenarios in the final round.

The key, however, will be managing the moves. Only a few anglers have made the 70-mile run to fish Ticonderoga’s shallow grassy areas, but reports have been meager. It’s highly unlikely anyone in tomorrow’s top-10 would consider Ti, but even running around the popular Rouses Point area and the massive Inland Sea can prove challenging.

Even with the safe navigation that Elite anglers practice, rough water chews up the clock. That means anglers will likely dial in their best bets with more fishing and less running