Guntersville is a guessing game now

SCOTTSBORO, Ala. — Brandon Palaniuk believes he has more rods rigged in his boat now than for any previous tournament in his stellar bass fishing career. His preparation for the Berkley Bassmaster Elite on Lake Gunterville says everything about what’s going on at this legendary Tennessee River impoundment. The four-day event begins Thursday with a 5:30 a.m. takeoff at Goose Pond Landing.

“I don’t know if I’ve ever had this many rods rigged in my boat. Ever,” said Palaniuk, who is coming off an 11th place finish at Neely Henry Lake in the last Elite Series event two weeks ago and a win in the Basspro.com Bassmaster Open on the James River last week. “I usually don’t do this. I prefer not to. This week I feel like I have to. My rod locker is completely stuffed with at least 35 rods.

“You can do anything you want and catch two-pounders. But two-pounders aren’t going to cut it, and three-pounders are hard to come by right now.”

The bass in Lake Guntersville are in every stage. Some are still on spawning beds, most are post-spawn, but they haven’t made it out to the deep ledges in significant numbers. Rather than pick a pattern or two after three days of practice, Palaniuk is prepared to let his instincts tell him what to do moment-by-moment during this tournament. His instincts have been solid almost all season, but especially lately. He moved up to fourth place in the Angler of the Year standings after Neely Henry and he’s posted four finishes of 14th place or higher in the six Elite Series events this season.

This marks the fourth major B.A.S.S. tournament on Guntersville in the past two years. Most recently, Frank Talley won an Elite Series event last fall, on Oct. 3, with a four-day total of 64 pounds, 3 ounces. Hank Cherry won the Bassmaster Classic on March 8 last year with a three-day total of 65-5. Jamie Hartman won an Elite Series tournament on June 24, 2019, with a four-day total of 79-10. 

None of those three expects his previous winning patterns to be in play this week.

“Absolutely not,” said Hartman. “Totally, totally different. I’m poking and praying. It’s been a tough practice. I’ve got a shallow pattern that’s working and a deep pattern that’s working. I’m going to start shallow and then move out to 16 or 18 feet.

“This one’s tough to predict. I end up underestimating these guys every single time. Then they go out and whack ‘emSo I’m going to say it’s going to take 20 pounds a day to win and 18 pounds a day to make the top 10.”

Frank Talley, the most recent Elite Series winner at Guntersville, did it when the current being pulled through the dam was at 53,000 to 55,000 cubic feet per second. “Now it’s about 20,000 and that’s the forecast for the rest of the week,” Talley said. Obviously, that current-dependent pattern he thrived on last fall isn’t available now.

“I’m just going to lock three rods in my hand and fish shallow,” he said. On those three rods he’ll have a Strike King Thunder Cricket, a square-bill crankbait and a topwater lure. 

“I caught fish in practice, but none bigger than about 2 ¼ pounds,” Talley said. “I think it’s going to be a tough tournament. I don’t think it’s going to take anywhere near 20 pounds a day to win. I think it will be more like 17 ½ or 18. However, the warm weather forecast could push some fish out deep. It could be a blowout if somebody gets on that deep bite. Otherwise, I think it’s going to be decided by ounces.”

It’s not surprising that the methods Hank Cherry won the Classic with last March aren’t major players in mid-May. But Cherry has fished Lake Guntersville on many occasions at various times of year.

“It’s a pretty different Lake Guntersville than I’ve ever seen,” Cherry said. “A lot of guys are still bed-fishing, some guys are fishing bream beds and there’s a mayfly hatch. Everything is happening now. The fish are in transition. I’m going to try to pick them off inbetween with a jerkbait, a topwater and a nekorig. I’m going to concentrate on that intermediate zone. I’ve been able to find them pretty good each day of practice.

“I don’t expect the weights to be huge. I think it will take 18 pounds a day to make it to the (top 10) final day.