Fantasy Fishing: A balance of massive risk and hedging your bets

Written by

Pete Robbins

Wait, how is it already time for the Bassmaster Classic? Didn’t we just crown Justin Hamner as the world champion? Classic qualification moves incredibly quickly, and not to go all Bueller on you, but if you don’t stop and focus on individual tournaments, you could miss it.

For the first time in my aging memory, we have a lot of unknowns and sorta-just-kinda-knowns in the Classic field. It’s a mix that’s heavy on rookies, second years and not-yet-stars who’ve proven themselves to be incredibly talented, but who don’t have lengthy track records to guide our analysis of them.

That comes on top of the fact that the Classic is a different beast altogether than a regular season event. For the newcomers on the water, it’s a whirlwind of related activities and time demands that stretch their focus thin. For those of us trying to make picks, it’s complicated by the fact that all of the anglers have strong incentives to go for broke – and the angler who finishes dead stinking last may be just a hair off of the winning pattern.

As I look through the field, I’m going mostly with my gut. Some of them have already fished a Ray Roberts Classic, but it was at an altogether different time of year, and even though it was just under four years ago, it was a completely different competitive landscape – in terms of who was fishing and the understanding of the technology available to them. I just hinted at what for some of you is a bad term – FFS – but no one can ignore that it’ll be a player for some anglers. How much is the question, as a shallow March push should make it less dominant than at just about any other time of year.

If all of that hasn’t turned your brain to mush, read on to learn my picks:

BUCKET A: WALTERS

MY PICK: This Bucket is stacked with big time big hitters, and if one of the obvious choices – Zaldain or Livesay – wins, I’m going to look like a fool, but if Patrick Walters wins, I’ll capitalize on a low player percentage to distinguish myself from some of my fellow group members. He finished 10th at Ray Roberts last time, his best Classic finish, and has a Texas win at Lake Fork to his credit, so he knows how to tempt and corral Lone Star giants. This is his sixth Classic, so the bright lights won’t faze him one bit, and he needs a major title to add to his numerous wins in order to move him into the next level. He’s exceptional with forward-facing sonar and not afraid to chunk the big glider.

BACKUP: While Zaldain is the local, Lee Livesay has the most Texas experience and success among the field. He won’t be afraid to zero, or come close to it, as he did at Fork a few years back, but he could also win by double digits. That’s the ultimate conundrum so pick him at your peril.

BUCKET B: HACKNEY

MY PICK: This is Greg Hackney’s 19th Classic, and while his record is spotty with just three Top 10 finishes, it’ll be his type of derby – big string, big fish, and a chance to cement his place in the record book, adding another title to his Elite Series AOY and Forrest Wood Cup. He didn’t fish the last Ray Roberts Classic, but one of his most memorable wins was a March 2006 Elite Series slugfest on Sam Rayburn, and he’s spent tons of time in Texas.

BACKUP: Ben Milliken is another big opportunity with a lot of risk, because like all of the guys with a heavy player percentage he’s not going to be chasing a check and he’s not afraid to bomb. That makes him dangerous both to the rest of the field and to those of us making Fantasy Fishing picks. I’d love to see someone win this with a big bait, and if that’s going to happen he’s a prime choice.

BUCKET C: WILLIAMS

MY PICK: Of all of the seemingly unflappable young anglers, Tyler Williams seems the most even-keeled, even happy-go-lucky. That’ll serve him well during his second consecutive Bassmaster Classic, and while other anglers may swing and miss with giant glide baits, his simple jig seems to serve him well just about everywhere. He’s only fished a few B.A.S.S. events in Texas, but so far they’ve produced a 22nd place finish in a Rayburn Open, and 19th and 4th place finishes in Elites on Toledo Bend (Texas/Louisiana border) and Fork.

BACKUP: Since winning the Classic, life on the water has been tougher-than-expected for Jeff Gustafson. He finds himself in 95th place in the AOY standings after two Florida events, with the knowledge that next year’s Classic is in Knoxville, where he’s been dominant. One quick way to requalify is “just win” this week in Texas. He had a middle of the pack finish at Ray Roberts last time, and his overall Texas record is mixed, but he’s one of those guys who can win at any time, any place, kicking your butt with a smile.

BUCKET D: PARKS

MY PICK: Logan Parks, fishing his first Classic, may be an unorthodox pick, but hear me out. This 26 year-old Alabamian hasn’t missed an Elite cut since the St. Johns River last year, his rookie season. That’s seven tournaments in a row, plus a 25th place finish in an Open in LaCrosse. So why do I think a Classic rookie is pick worthy? It’s not just the 20th and 22nd place finishes at Toledo Bend and Fork last year, but also the way he’s improved. Florida was his nemesis in his rookie season, producing his worst finishes –72nd at the Harris Chain and 102nd at the St. Johns. This year he moved up 84 places to 18th in Palatka and finished 32nd at Okeechobee. Don’t be surprised if he contends at any tournament, including at Ray Roberts.

BACKUP: If a big bait’s going to win it, there are plenty of anglers who will spend time with them, but few who will go all-in like Carl Jocumsen. After years of living on the bubble, this is his third straight Classic, and a better opportunity than the other two to do what he does best.

BUCKET E: NORSETTER

MY PICK: The baritone stylings of Kyle Norsetter may distract us on the weigh-in stage, but that’s the point – he’s always onstage, talking about his increasingly solid performances. There have been a few clunkers, but after really struggling his rookie season on tour, last year he only missed two checks, and performed solidly in Texas. Even if he doesn’t win, nothing about the Classic experience will spin him out, because the dude seems to have ice water running through his veins.

BACKUP: This Bucket contains a lot of lesser-known anglers, and Jeremiah Kindy may have a relatively short track record at B.A.S.S., but he’s been kicking around the pro circuits for several decades. It may be his first Classic, but it’s not his first rodeo and he put in a solid showing in the 2005 FLW championship won by George Cochran.