If you had asked Randy Howell two weeks ago about his thoughts on the Progressive Bassmaster Elite Series season opener on Lake Guntersville, he would have envisioned a tournament where the lack of forward-facing sonar would have made very little difference.
Temperatures had been mild, and the bass were biting pretty much anywhere. A Bass Pro Tour event kicked out impressive numbers and quality from all sections of the water column.
Things have changed. A major front moved through the country this past weekend, burying much of the eastern half of the country in snow and ice. North Alabama missed out on the worst of the precipitation, but not the cold weather.
“It is a very unusual setup for north Alabama,” the 2014 Bassmaster Classic champion said. “I think the bass thought the winter had come and gone. Now with this extreme hit, the water will probably be in the high 30s for the first practice day. I live back in Spring Creek, and it might be frozen over in the shallows.”
Howell believes this could potentially be the coldest water the Elite Series has ever seen. Not only that, but the FXR Bassmaster Elite at Lake Guntersville is also the first of four events that will not allow the use of forward-facing sonar technology like Garmin LiveScope, Lowrance ActiveTarget and Humminbird MEGA Live, one of the ways anglers have been able to showcase the heavyweight potential of the lake in recent years.
If FFS was in play, Howell believes B.A.S.S. records could be rewritten. But without it, truly giant bags will be harder to land.
“There haven’t really been major tournaments here when the water is this cold,” the Guntersville, Ala. veteran said. “The lake (however) is at all-time good health right now. There’s lots of 3- to 6-pounders in the lake right now. If it was a ‘Scope tournament, there would be record weights caught. There’d be lots of Century belts handed out. With this no ‘Scope deal, and the cold, it could make the bass more lethargic, and numbers may not be as good and consistency could be difficult.”
Overnight lows are forecasted to be 30 degrees or colder for the next 10 days, outside of one day, which Howell believes will push a good percentage of the bass back offshore to chase balls of baitfish. That would be the perfect receipt for an angler adept at “pinging a minnow” with forward-facing sonar, and almost certainly would be the predominant strategy under the previous rule book.
This tournament will look much different, and the weather combined with the no FFS rule could mean weights will be slightly less impressive than anticipated.
However, Lake Guntersville is a powerhouse fishery for a reason. The lake is arguably healthier than it has ever been, and the 101 professional anglers will have plenty of other ways to find a winning pattern on any section of the lake, even if the bass are a little sluggish.
“If it was in play, you’d see a bunch of guys chasing bass around structure and bait balls. The Top 10 guys would 100% be doing that. You’d see a handful of 30-pound bags if we could use ‘Scope.” Fisher Anaya of Eva, Ala., said. “I see it taking about 24 pounds a day to win it. It shouldn’t change the weights that much though. There should be plenty of 20-pound bags.
“To be honest, catching 20 pounds out of the grass is more consistent than ‘Scope bass.”
Howell and the rookie Anaya noted that the lake is full of vegetation, and very little of the summer growth died off during the mild winter. In fact, much of the lake is full of eelgrass as well as hydrilla and milfoil, some of which has grown all the way out to 15 feet of water.
Anaya believes much of the action will revolve around that grass and finding the sweet spots within. Lipless crankbaits and ChatterBaits will be key presentations around the vegetation.
“The grass fish are never going to leave the grass,” he said. “They will still be there; you may just have to cover more water to get a bite. They aren’t going to want to move, and I don’t see them being grouped up quite yet because it is so early in the year. It will be about picking off one here and one there, but they could be good ones if you get in the right stretch”
The causeways on Lake Guntersville have produced multiple Bassmaster Classic champions, including Howell, and he and Anaya anticipate they will get plenty of attention again in this tournament. Anaya added that while he doesn’t believe the causeways will produce a lot of bites, they do provide the chance at catching the tournament’s biggest bag.
As far as the offshore bite goes, Howell anticipates technology to play a major role in finding bass in 15 to 25 feet of water. Anglers will utilize their mapping, side-scan and down-scan to find where that class of bass may be setting up and then locate the structure elements in the area where they will hunker down.
“The bass back off into the creek channels or main river channel and get on stumps and cover and sit and wait for a warm, sunny day,” Howell said. “They might ease back up and feed a little in the afternoons then. Little drops and ditches where they can make quick moves will be key.
“It will be a big-time mapping tournament.”
While some anglers may find success using 2D sonar to execute the “moping” techniques with a jighead minnow, Howell envisions football jigs, drop shots and shaky heads coming to the forefront.
The possibility of a shad kill also looms.
“It makes the fishing either really good or really bad” Anaya said.
With the tournament launching out of Goose Pond in the mid-lake area of Guntersville, the possibilities are endless as far as where anglers could find themselves come tournament day. Anywhere between the Nickajack Dam tailrace and the Guntersville Dam could produce tournament winning bass.
How those bags are caught without FFS is yet to be seen, and more changes to the forecast are likely in store.
