Elite Analysis: Toledo Bend – Day 2

One by one, a parade of shell-shocked veterans ascended and then descended the Elite Series stage today at Toledo Bend.

It’s not quite a complete sweep for the youth movement. After all, tournament leader Pat Schlapper is a seasoned and semi-grizzled elder of 40. Stetson Blaylock (8th place) is the only one in the top ten within five years of him, and Chris Johnston was the only other one alive before 1990. You have to go pretty far down the leaderboard to find someone born in the free-swinging 70s. The winner of that distinction is two-time Classic champ Hank Cherry (34th), who was born exactly eight months before Richard Nixon resigned.

I’m still trying to learn to pick the faces out of the crowd, which is especially hard when they’re always tilting their necks downward. Nevertheless, it’s clear that Toledo Bend has the potential to bust wide open – which means that this tournament is far from over.

Here’s what I saw, learned and speculated over the course of the second day of this Elite Series season:

What Lead is Safe? – When Fujita won last year at Lake Champlain, he took over the lead by 7 ounces on Day Two, moved it up to 2-13 on Day Three, and eventually won by 1-6. Today the tables were turned on him, as he “only” weighed 24-3 and fell to second, 3 ounces behind new leader Pat Schlapper. Toledo is a different animal than Champlain, though. At the latter lake, a 6-pounder is huge, and with tons of threes and fours it’s tough to make up ground. Here a 6-pounder isn’t quite a rounding error, but it’s not the top of the food chain, either. One or two monster bites can make a lead virtually insurmountable or, alternatively, can close a gap in a hurry. It’s not inconceivable that someone will vault out of 10th place on Day Four to win, and we could see still another leaderboard shakeup tomorrow.

Reserved Seat – Fujita’s young career is all that much more impressive when you consider how often he’s been in contention to win. Last year he made the cut to Day Four in five out of eight tournaments and finished in the top three half of the time. Over the offseason the Yeti Hot Seat had time to regain its shape, but this week it once again seems poised to get a semi-permanent imprint of the young superstar’s butt. Expect him to spend a lot of time there this year, and over the duration of his career. I’m hoping by now that he’s learned to keep his hotel reservations through Sunday more often than not.

G-Money – Rookie Robert Gee’s catches speak for themselves, but with little knowledge of his background or makeup I became a believer early this morning when he lost a quality fish. “That was like a 4-pounder,” he deadpanned. “All good. That was a good sign.” It would be very easy to be fazed by the slightest hurdle on the second day of your Elite career, especially just a month or so after your 25th birthday, but he seemed to take it with a veteran’s stride. One downside to being a rookie in an ultra-talented class of them is that it may be hard to stand out. That’s kind of what happened to Bryant Smith last year, as he watched his fellow first years Joey Cifuentes, Kyoya Fujita and Will Davis Jr. claim blue trophies. Meanwhile, he made the Classic, set a smallmouth limit record, and demonstrated remarkable poise when we had enough bandwidth to notice. Gee wasn’t the most trumpeted of this class, but they all started again at zero. Right now he’s the king of the steep rookie hill.

Changing of the Guard – Yesterday’s rookie surge was impressive, but all of the hubbub about it masked the fact that many of the sport’s vaunted stars really struggled. Of the nine past AOY’s, only Clark Wendlandt was inside the cut, in a tenuous 50th. Of the other eight who were outside of the money, five were 84th or worse. Of the six past Classic winners (with Iaconelli and Clunn falling into both categories), recent returnee Jordan Lee (8th) was the only one inside the cut, with Jeff Gustafson one spot behind Wendlandt. Today, those numbers improved, but only slightly. On the AOY side, Wendlandt remained inside the cut and 2019 AOY Scott Canterbury jumped 44 places to join him. Amongst the past Classic winners, Gussy and Hank Cherry joined Jordan Lee. The field gets tougher every year and this one seems like it’s going to exercise brutality on anglers who refuse to change.

Hometown Heroes – Yesterday, Texas transplants Ben Milliken and Chris Zaldain were in 9th and 31st respectively. Three other Texans were barely inside the cut at 47th, 48th and 50th. Meanwhile, Caleb Sumrall (20th) was the only one of five Louisianans in the money. Today, the number of Texans inside the top 50 went down by one, with Brad Whatley falling out of the cut, and the number of Louisianans went up by one, with Derek Hudnall rising from 85th to 49th.

Hall of Famers – It was pleasing and a little bit jarring to see an emotional Mark Zona learn of his selection to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, mostly because I can vividly recall his entry onto the national stage. Those of us who grew up in the 70s and 80s (Hank Cherry knows what I’m talking about) always knew that the Nixons and Clunns would make it, but it’s a bit harder to get our heads around deserving-but-younger nominees. That’s how I felt when Mike Iaconelli got in last year. He clearly deserved it, but yet he seems so….young. Of the other current Elites, Jordan Lee and Hank Cherry both have multiple Classic wins. Gerald Swindle and Brandon Palaniuk both have multiple AOYs. A solid case could be made for Jason Christie, Clark Wendlandt and/or Greg Hackney. Who should be next? Who will be next?

Century Quest – After Day One, four anglers were on pace to hit the 100-pound mark if they could keep it up for three more days. After Day Two, the number remains the same, with Patrick Walters rising from 27th to 4th (50 pounds even) and Luke Palmer falling from 4th to 7th (45-3).

Cut Weight – Yesterday’s 50th place weight of 16-7 led me to predict a cut weight of 33-14 (two times the first day cut, plus a pound). That formula fell short. Two times the Day One cut mark (32-14) would’ve been closer, as it ended up being 32-10.

Double Twenties – Eight anglers caught 20 or more pounds each of the first two days, with Trey McKinney (12th) being the only one outside of the top ten. Chris Johnston (6th, 45-7) weighed in 18-15 yesterday, which means he has the smallest bag so far of anyone in the top ten. Four anglers have weighed in 22 or more pounds each day, with Walters being the lone outlier in the top five.

Playing With House Money – After weighing in 8-14, less than half of his first day’s catch, Scott Martin was blunt onstage: “Thank goodness for that Open, right?” He won the season-opening event at Okeechobee and has effectively already qualified for the 2025 Bassmaster Classic.

Big Water – Hunter Shryock on Toledo Bend: “Even when they say it’s calm, it’s still blowing.”

Here’s Looking at You – Expert sight fisherman Jacob Powroznik, pointing to his eyes: “Hopefully I get to use these forward-facing sonars next week.”

The Bank Did Not Pay Today — Jason Williamson: “I’m living proof that a country redneck’s just not good at Livescoping.”

Check Chaser  –  Drew Cook: “My new son is on a formula that’s $60 a can so we need to make every cut we can.” He uncharacteristically missed the cut by exactly a pound this week.

Dubious Distinction – It seemed as if no fewer than a dozen pros declared themselves the “Bubble Boy” from the stage. It was closer than expected, with three anglers tied at 32-10 for that last spot. Rookie Timothy Dube won by virtue of the tiebreaker, thanks to his 21-11 bag today. He’d been in 93rd place after Day One,  and edged out Steve Kennedy and Jason Williamson.