There’s a substantial chance that Kyle Welcher’s 45-7 margin of victory from the Pasquotank will be higher than this week’s winning weight at the Sabine, yet the winner’s paycheck will be the same. The number of points toward the Angler of the Year title will also be the same.
Perhaps most importantly, at least from this fan’s perspective, is that the outcome of the top spot is not a done deal.
In other words, Orange, Texas pizza places shouldn’t expect any orders from the competitors on the water tomorrow. The difference between 1st and 10th place is 3 pounds 10 ounces. The difference between 10th and 50th is 4-1. If they’re fishing on Saturday, they still have a chance to be hoisting the blue trophy on Sunday afternoon.
But unlike the Pasquotank, where we were trying to see how high Welcher could go, this time the leaderboard is effectively a limbo stick. Or maybe The Price is Right is the proper analogy. There’s a pretty good chance we’ll set some low weight records. How high can you go while still getting under a certain mark?
It’s a challenging fishery under the best of conditions, so over the next two days we’ll get to see what 50 of the best anglers in the world can drag out of the mud. I’ll be watching closely. In the meantime, here are my key takeaways from a day when tough sledding get tougher:
Not Quite a Nightmare — So far this year, AOY leader Jay Przekurat (25th, 15-14) has been living a dream, but today he fell off the pace a bit, with four fish for 5-2, which dropped him from 4th to 25th. “I felt like I was in a flipping coma for most of the day,” he said. He’s still within 4-11 of the lead, and just 1-1 out of the Top 10, but most importantly, he continues to lead the AOY race. Of those immediately behind him in the standings heading into this event, five other members of the Top 10 made the cut. Of those five, only Trey McKinney (12th, 16-14), Chris Johnston (10th, 16-15) and Kyoya Fujita (3rd, 19-11) would have gained points on him if the tournament ended today.
Schlapper the Southerner – Tournament leader Pat Schlapper may be from the great white north of Wisconsin, but his best Elite performances have all taken place in the south – 10th at Santee Cooper in 2022, 4th at Seminole in 2023, and 3rd at Toledo Bend last year. Now he’s in 1st heading into the turn in Orange, Texas. His best Northern Elite performance was 20th place at Lake Champlain in 2023.
Cut Weight – After Day 1, the cut weight was 7 pounds even, with five anglers tied at that mark. After today, Cliff Pace snuck into the cut with 9 fish for 12-14, an average of 6-7 per day. Thirteen anglers missed it by a pound or less.
Youngsters – Three of eight rookies and six of ten sophomores are inside the top fifty. Five members of the Top 10 are in their twenties.
Doubling Up on Double Digits – There were five bags of 10 pounds or more today, added onto yesterday’s seven. Cooper Gallant (2nd, 20-5) is the only one to accomplish the feat both days, and leader Pat Schlapper (1st, 20-9) is the only other angler to average over 10 pounds. Takumi Ito (15th, 16-7), Justin Hamner (21st, 16-1) and Jay Przekurat (25th, 15-14) are the only angler who’ve had double digit bags but are nevertheless outside of the Top 10.
International Division – The Top 10 continues to include anglers from four countries – an Australian, a Japanese angler, two Canadians and six Americans. It includes no one from Texas or Louisiana. Seven of nine international anglers will compete tomorrow and six of them are in the top 20. Meanwhile, three of seven Texans made the 50 cut, with Dakota Ebare (14th, 16-10) being the only one ranked higher than 42nd. None of the four Louisianans made the cut. Logan Latuso (55th, 12-7) came closest. He missed it by 7 ounces.
Pace for the High Water Mark – The all-time highest Elite Series winning weight at the Sabine was Chris Lane’s 50 pound haul in 2015. In order to exceed that weight, Schlapper will have to average 14-12 over each of the next two days.
Pace for the Low Water Mark – The lowest Elite Series winning weight on the Sabine is Jason Christie’s 43-15 in 2022. If he were to win with less than that, Schlapper would have to average 11-11 or less per day. When Kevin Short set the all-time Elite Series record for lowest winning weight at Ft. Madison, Iowa in 2009, he totaled 43-3. Schlapper (and, of course, the rest of the field) are behind that pace right now. Double Schlapper’s two-day weight and you only get 41-2. Short rose from 18th to 8th, to 6th and eventually to 1st, but never weighed a 12 pound bag. He did, however, stay consistent. His lone bag under 10 pounds was his Day 3 catch of 9-8.
No Repeats – None of the past Sabine champions will compete here tomorrow. Defending champ Brock Mosley missed the cut by 2 ounces. Five of the Top 10 have prior Elite wins. As noted above, Schlapper’s best Elite finish to date was 3rd at Toledo Bend. Gallant’s best previous Elite finish was 4th at St. Clair in 2023.
Jamie Hartman (76th, 10-5) – “When you get 70 guys in a dirty bathtub up there, not everyone’s coming out clean.”
Big Movers – On the strength of his tournament-best (so far) limit of 12-9, John Crews rose from 73rd to 4th. KJ Queen was in 72nd yesterday and his now in 8th.
Taku 2.0 – Today we learned from one of the fans’ favorite anglers about his new identity: “Takumi Next Generation.” This one flips 65 pound braid and a one ounce weight. “Usually I don’t like baitcasting but I like it,” he said. Jordan Lee has been tutoring him in heavy line tactics.
Is that a stick in your pocket or are you just happy to see me? – A little bit after 10:30, Pat Schlapper went deep in the brush to retrieve his lure. It took him five minutes to notice that he’d come back with a stick in his pocket – his cameraman had to point it out. He’s truly lucky it was not one of the Sabine’s many snakes.
Austin Felix (22nd, 16-1) — “We might be able to 8-pound ‘em to death.”
Turtle’s Consistency – By making the cut, Bill Lowen (26th, 15-10) has now finished in the top 50 in all six Elite Series tournaments this year. The last time he did that was a streak that spanned 13 Elites from 2018 to 2020, plus a Classic and two AOY championships. He started off his Elite Series career in 2006 with four straight money finishes and six of the first seven.
Limits Matter – There were 69 limits yesterday and 62 today, with 45 anglers weighing in five bass each day. Carl Jocumsen (7th, 9 bass for 17-3) is the only angler in the Top 10 who did not weigh in a limit both days. Nevertheless, he rose from 9th to 7th today. Seven anglers fell short of the cut by a pound or less and didn’t fill out their limits at least one of the two days.
Stetson Blaylock – “You’ve gotta have five to make the dance tomorrow,” he said shortly after he caught his first fish, a line-burner, at 7:07am. He was in 2nd yesterday, 13 ounces out of the lead and caught a midget limit of 5-14 today to fall to 5th, but he’s still within spitting distance — just 3-6 out of the lead. Or, if you’re a glass half empty type, he’s just 4 ounces inside the Top 10.
Milliken’s Late Morning Quail Egg Snack – Made me think of my good friend James Overstreet. He downed those suckers by the dozen, truly living up to Milliken’s mantra that “One’s never enough.” I look forward to seeing J.O. in the Hall of Fame someday.
Brandon Palaniuk (100th, 5-2) talking about his Day 1 Blank — “Nobody thought that I just didn’t catch a bass.” He got offers of boats, texts asking if he’d broken down, questions about his whereabouts and so on after he failed to cross the stage. When you’re one of the most consistent and top-performing anglers of the recent era, it’s hard for many fans to believe that you’re capable of putting up a goose egg like the rest of us. He caught five bass for 5-2 today, and while it didn’t move him up substantially, it did help him gain a few valuable points toward getting back to the Bassmaster Classic.
Semi-Relevant Bum Phillips quote of the day – “The harder we played, the behinder we got,” the Orange, Texas native once said. Realistically, though, anyone who made the top 50 this week still has at least an outside shot at the win. You’re only unreasonably behind if you give up hope.
And, for the record, the Pittsburgh Classic was a top five for me out of the 20 I’ve attended as a member of the media.
