Elite Analysis – Day 3 Santee Cooper

Can anyone catch Chris Johnston and Brandon Palaniuk at Santee Cooper? Are Century Belts all but guaranteed on Championship Sunday? Pete Robbins breaks down the two-man race, giant bags and the storylines still keeping hope alive in this edition of Elite Analysis.

The 2026 Yokohama Tire Bassmaster Elite at Santee Cooper Lakes seems to be a two-man race, but none of the other eight anglers still competing seem to have fully gotten the message.

“It’s a long shot but it is a shot,” said Drew Cook (3rd, 72-1). He’s over 10 pounds out of the lead, and 7 pounds behind second, but other than making sure that his polarized glasses are clean he has few worries.

Indeed, 40 anglers were eliminated today after 49 got sent home yesterday, and for some of them the disappointment wasn’t that they didn’t maximize their payday, but rather that they won’t get to fish on what we’ve repeatedly been told may soon be the best bass lake in the country.

“If you’re not around ‘em, just go to the next pocket because 30 pounds is living in it,” said local son Patrick Walters (28th, 52-0). 

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Yes I am. 

On a day when Chris Johnston anointed himself the third leader in three days with an ill-timed dunk into the waters of Lake Marion, we learned that there are plenty of thirties left, and no one would be entirely shocked if a 35 or 40 lit up the scales. It just seems to be getting better.

Here’s what I saw, heard, thought, jotted down and dreamed as we make our way toward Championship Sunday: 

Path to Sainthood – Prior to this week, the Johnstons have both been inside the top 10 at regular season Elite Series tournaments nine times. Five of those were at the St. Lawrence River. Oddly enough, saints seem to be their thing, as three of the other four were at St. Clair and the St. Johns. I suppose “Santee” is close enough to count.

Minnesota Wild – Bob Downey (6th, 67-5): “Yesterday I was just gripping the stick a little too tight as they say in hockey.” He rebounded from a 19-2 day with 24-7, his best limit of the tournament so far.

The Cut to 10 – Tenth place qualifier Kyle Welcher weighed in 62-9 over three days, an average of nearly 20-14 per day. Kyle Norsetter was the first man out with 62-1.

A Dirty Dozen – There were 12 bags over 20 pounds today among our remaining 50 anglers, including five over 25 pounds.

Straight Twenties – Four anglers have weighed in at least 20 pounds each of the first three days. Leader Chris Johnston and Drew Cook are the only two who’ve weighed over 21 per day. Kyle Welcher is the only angler in the top 10 who didn’t have at least two limits of 20 or more. Three anglers who had two bags of 20 pounds or more failed to make the top 10cut.

Century Belt Efforts – Nothing is guaranteed in this sport, but it seems very likely that we’ll have at least one, if not two, Century Belts this week. Chris Johnston has 82-13, an average of approximately 27-10 per day. A bag that weighs 17-3 will get it done. Brandon Palaniuk has 79-11 and therefore needs 20-5 to earn his second. He’s averaging over 26 pounds a day and matching today’s 20-11 (his smallest catch so far) would get it done. Drew Cook and Cory Johnston have an outside shot, needing 27-15 and 29-9, respectively.

Home Team – Tough week for the South Carolinians in the field, with only two of five making the cut to Saturday and none finishing higher than 23rd. Their average finish was a middling 47th.

Coike Chris Johnston — “This lure is my whole tournament….It’s kind of like an A-Rig when it first came out.”

Famous Marions – Marion Barry (“Mayor for Life”), Marion Ross (“Mrs. C”), Marion Robert Morrison (IYKYK).

Ups and Downs – Drew Cook and Tucker Smith (8th, 63-2) are the only members of the top 10 whose weights have gone up each day. None of them have had their weights decrease each day.

Bests and Worsts – Five members of the top 10 had their best day of the week today: Chris Johnston, Drew Cook, Justin Hamner, Bob Downey and Tucker Smith. Three had their worst day so far: Brandon Palaniuk, Pat Schlapper and Greg Hackney.

Triple Lindy – Other than Chris Johnston, the most famous Canadian swimmer would have to be Penny Oleksiak, the most decorated Canadian Olympian in any sport with seven Olympic medals. She was an Olympic gold medalist in the 100 meter freestyle in 2016 in Rio and she medaled across multiple events and multiple Olympic Games (2016, 2020, 2024). A Speedo is not particularly conducive to multiple visible sponsor logos.

Speaking of Olympians – Kyle Norsetter’s daughter Harper is heavily into training for the high jump this week. After her dad got a long awaited “boom shaka laka” for Thursday’s Phoenix Boats Big Bass of the Day, then lost the tournament-long award yesterday, he reclaimed it today with a massive 9-14 Santee bass today. Hearing that her father had weighed in a massive 28-14 bag and then the big fish, young Harper went into overdrive onstage, jackrabbiting in place as the crowd cheered.

Dave Mercer — “Leads are as unstable as my high school girlfriend.”

Future Hall of Famers – The 2006 Elite Series event at Santee Cooper included 15 eventual members of the Bass Fishing Hall of Fame, including Mike Iaconelli. When Takahiro Omori is inducted this September that number will rise to 16. This week’s field – for reasons related to recency rather than the quality of the contenders – features only one: Ike. But look forward 20 more years and some of these guys will likewise be in the Hall. There are some obvious choices based on past performance, but perhaps one or more of the lesser-known young guns will be there, too. 

John Garrett (22nd, 54-1) – “I just picked up a vibrating jig, a Thunder Cricket, and turned my brain off.”

Family Pack – Best four bags for the Johnston brothers through three days: 32-8, 29-6, 29-2 and 23-9 for a total of 114-9. Best two for Chris: 58-8. Best two for Cory: 56-1.

Past History – This week’s top 10 have fished a total of 25 prior Elite Series events on Santee Cooper, with 17 cuts, nine top tens and two wins. Brandon Palaniuk has never missed an Elitetop 10 here. He’s one of three in this group who have never missed the 50 cut – the others are Drew Cook and Kyle Welcher. This is the first one for Bob Downey.

Losing Fish on Coikes – Anglers have now had access to urchin baits for a while and awareness of them for slightly less time, but we’ve seen several key fish losses this week from top competitors utilizing them. It makes me wonder whether they’ve had to rush them into the field without proper testing. Are the losses just part of the game or do they result from a short-term failure to dial in ideal rigging and terminal tackle?

Justin Hamner (5th, 67-14) – “It was so random but that tells you how good this place is.” He weighed in 28-15 today, the day’s second largest limit, beating his prior best of the tournament by over 5 pounds.

All Hat, No Cattle – On Thursday, Joey “The Cowboy” Cifuentes (49th, 40-12) wore his signature cowboy hat and weighed in 14-7. Yesterday he forgot it and weighed in 20-12, which put him inside the cut. Today he went back to his traditional look and struggled to catch two bass for 5-9. Maybe it’s time for a permanent switch?

Mercer on Pat Schlapper’s (7th, 66-4) Idiosyncratic Televised Performance – “When you catch a bass, the voices in your head come out of your mouth.”

Poor Estimator – Shane LeHew (13th, 59-8): “I was kind of afraid that I was going to zero.” He dropped 25-9 on the scales to rise to lucky 13th

Words That Rhyme with Coike – I can’t find any.

Not a Coike in Sight – Primary winning baits in Elite Series events here in 2022 and 2023: Big Bite Baits Fighting Frog and Yum Wooly Bug.

Santees Coast to Coast – Three US states have a city or town named “Santee” – South Carolina, Nebraska and California.

I’ve got a drawer full of Coikes at home, including some in a not-for-general-sale color made specifically for Lake Biwa. Make me an offer – I’m looking to buy a house at Santee Cooper.

Back at it tomorrow with our remaining 10 anglers – several of whom may be measured for belts sooner rather than later.