Elite Analysis – Day 1 Pasquotank River

Bassmaster writer Pete Robbins gives a detailed analysis of Day 1 of the St. Croix Bassmaster Elite at Pasquotank River.

About a quarter of the way into the weigh-in, Bassmaster emcee Dave Mercer was tired of the repetition.

“Let me guess,” he said to Brad Whatley (78th, 8 pounds). “It was rough.”

Yes, the weather, and in particular the wind, was the story of Day One for the Elites on the Pasquotank River. Many anglers made long runs, across large, open expanses of water, to get to their desired fishing spots. On the way, or the way back, some of them speared waves, tore off trolling motors, and possibly got the wind knocked out of them by walls of water. There’s a good chance they’ll do it again tomorrow.

That’s the price you pay to compete in the big leagues, on big water. It also shows the strategic side of the game, as we’ve seen on other long-run destinations like the Great Lakes, the Louisiana Delta, the California Delta and the Sabine River. Indeed, bass fishing is often as much a matter of algebra as it is of casting and winding. You’ve got eight hours to get the job done. Do you stay closer and get more fishing time in arguably worse areas, or sacrifice time and potentially vertebrae to get to someplace better? And if you know it’s going to be rough, do you cut that already-truncated time down even more to ensure that you and your catch get back alive and in one piece?

Kyle Welcher, leading by nearly 7 pounds after Day One, may run away with this one. His poker playing days indicate he probably has the math chops to game plan it out. Still, there are multiple single points of failure in a four day derby on a new body of water, particularly one this big, that could be his undoing. When the 2025 season is over, the ability or failure to capitalize during this week may prove to be a turning point for a remarkable number of anglers.

Here’s what I saw, heard, thought and dreamed on a rough day one at the Pasquotank:

Cut Weight Math – 50th place belongs to Scott Canterbury, who weighed in four bass for 11-7. He was one of three anglers in the top 50 who did not have a limit today, the others being past Classic winners Randy Howell (35th, 13-3) and Mike Iaconelli (38th, 12-13). That failure to capture number five could prove extremely costly as the weights are quite tight. Indeed, based on past formulas, we’d expect the cut weight to be somewhere between 23 and 24 pounds, but one or two big bites will go a long way here. There are seven anglers less than a pound ahead of Canterbury and nine within a pound of him on the backside.

Reverse Sandbagging – Based on the pre-tournament reports, the time of year, and the lack of badmouthing from the pros, like many of you I expected the weights to be higher. Yes, Welcher’s 30 pound bag is impressive, and there were two more over 23, but none over 20 beyond that. Indeed, the real money and the real chance for moving forward lies in the next tier of anglers, those in the mid-teens. There were nine anglers who weighed between 150 and 15-15, and another eight between 16-1 and 16-4.

Dangerous Quotes – Other than hearing from the service crews that “We’ve run out of bolts, duct tape and parts,” Elite anglers heard the second worst possible quote from leader Welcher: “I’ve got a little bit of a clue now.” If 30 pounds is the front end of getting a clue, this could be an awesome performance.

Back on Track – After his magical AOY season of 2023, Welcher struggled last year and did not make a single Day Four appearance. His best Elite finish was 14th at Fork. In Florida this year he was 69th at the St. Johns and 34th at Okeechobee. Despite the AOY title, he’s yet to win a Bassmaster event. He was 2nd to Jason Christie in the 2022 Classic on Hartwell and came in 3rd in a 2019 Open on the Harris Chain. His best Elite finishes were 5th at Guntersville in 2020 and 5th again at the St. Lawrence in 2023.

Four for Four – Including his winning effort at the Classic, Easton Fothergill (2nd, 23-13) has now weighed in at least 22-10 in his last four days of Bassmaster competition. The lowest he’s been ranked during that time was 3rd, his position after Day One at Ray Roberts. He didn’t hit 20 pounds total in either of his first two Elite events. Maybe he was sandbagging, giving the other contenders in the ROY and AOY races a head start?

Magic and Bird – With Fothergill in 2nd and last year’s ROY Trey McKinney in 3rd (23-7), shortly after they finished 1st and 2nd in the Classic, it just feels like this is going to be a battle we’ll see for years to come, with them jockeying for wins and potentially building one of the sport’s greatest rivalries.

The Wright Brothers Division – Of the six Elite Series anglers who currently call North Carolina home, only Shane LeHew (17th, 16-1) and Jake Whitaker (39th, 12-12) are currently inside the cut. The other four are all in 80th or worse. Two former North Carolinians, Randy Howell and Bryan New, find themselves on opposite sides of the cut, in 35th and 92nd, respectively.

International Division – Cory Johnston (33rd, 13-6) is the only Canadian angler inside the 50 cut right now. All three Japanese anglers, and the one Australian, are also inside the cut.

Jason Christie (81st, 7-3)  – “Whenever you make those long runs, you’re committed. I was committed.”

Soundalike – Dan Pasqua tanked 20 homers for the Chicago White Sox in 1988 en route to 117 career dingers.

What is Going on In Tennessee Pet Stores? – David Mullins (44th, 12-3) of Mt. Carmel, Tennessee, admitted to Mercer that he has a pet raccoon named Cowboy. He tried to explain it away by saying, “When I got married, I inherited it.” Not to be outdone, the next angler to weigh in, Buddy Gross of Chattanooga, said “I had one when I was in high school.” Her name was Sheila.

I Can’t Believe I Threw Up in Front of Dean Wormer – In what is (as far as I can recall) a BASS Live first, today we watched Easton Fothergill catch and release a flounder. If you’re an aspiring FlounderMaster, take note that they’re hitting dropshots.

Tommy Sanders — “What’s so great about Dismal?”

Fruit Bat Fashion – Kyle Patrick’s inadvertently inside-out shorts.

The Harbor of Hospitality – Famous people originally from Elizabeth City, NC, include Luther “Wimpy” Lassiter, world-renowned nine-ball pool player, jazz drummer Max Roach and NSA whistleblower and leaker Edward Snowden.

And sorry, but I have to include some of the many quotations about the conditions….

Drew Benton – “I’m gonna need some ibuprofen or a good chiropractor.”

Chris Zaldain – “My camera equipment, I exploded that in the first five minutes.”

Brandon Palaniuk – “I’m pretty sure on the way back I saw the sky more than I saw the water.”

Randy Howell – “I feel like I’m certified to be a Navy seal now.”

Keith Combs – “I was questioning my sanity but catching that big one makes it worthwhile.” He made the long run to the Alligator River and brought back the big fish of the day, an 8-02.