Bo knows: Semifinal Saturday thoughts from Bowman at St. Johns River 2025

What percentage of the time do Day 3 leaders win at the St. Johns River? Bassmaster's Steve Bowman knows the answer to that and much more in this installment of "Bo Knows".

John Garrett

I’ve learned through the years that I don’t have to know everything. I know a lot of folks would say that pretty much sums up my mental acuity. The older I get, the less I make sense.

I know there may be a lot of that in these next few lines. I know it comes with the territory, the bass fishing territory, where even Rick Clunn remains hungry to know things. I just know I don’t know anything compared to him.

But these are some things I do know. I know that Bill Lowen continues to lead going into the final day of the FXR Pro Fish Bassmaster Elite at St. Johns River with a 5-pound, 4-ounce cushion, down from 7-13 a day ago. I know on the St. Johns that’s not a cushion, more like a napkin or a piece of silk in between him and a potential wrecking ball.

I know no lead is ever comfortable in Florida.

I also know that in the previous nine Elite events on the St. Johns, the Day 3 leader has won six out of nine times. I know that’s a 67 percent likelihood. I know the largest deficit overcome on the final day was in 2019 by the aforementioned Clunn, who actually knows everything. I know Clunn was down 9-13 and ran past Chris Johnston to win his second Elite on the St. Johns.

I know I’ve mentioned that no lead is ever comfortable in Florida. I know that 67 percent likelihood is something to hang your yoga leggings on. But I know this is still Florida. I know Bill Lowen will likely have a fitful night of sleep tonight. I know in those dreams in Lowen’s mind, John Garrett is the boogey man.

Even without Lowen in the mix, I also know that John Garrett is one scary dude. I know he busted the first “dirty 30” bag of the season. I know if we weren’t headed to Okeechobee I would say it could be the last.

I know either way Garrett’s Day 3 was pretty special. I know Garrett has thrown a wrench in the standard idea of what most of us think about Florida fishing. I know he smashed a “dirty 30” with a deep diving crankbait. I know that’s not completely unheard of. But I also know there’s not a handful of deep diving crankbaits in the average St. Johns River bass boat. I know I’m referring to all of them.

I know from almost four decades of covering this crazy sport that is likely the first “dirty 30” caught on a deep-diving crankbait during an event when a good portion of the anglers are sight fishing. I know if it’s ever happened before, it was the only “dirty 30.”

I know there was a moment in time, when several people thought “what in the hell was he thinking?”

I know Garrett is a special angler. I know he will one day be regarded as one of greats next to anglers like Bill Lowen, Jason Christie, Jordan Lee, Larry Nixon etc. I know that makes the final day in this event an amazing showdown. I know, however it works out, it will be an incredible day.

I know the word “however” is a qualifier. I know it doesn’t matter what the weights wind up being. I know this final day battle will be amazing to watch.

I know I’m sitting on the edge of my seat, and Rick-Clunn hungry to know more.