Classic Analysis – Knoxville – Day 1

Trigeminal neuralgia, a chronic pain disorder affecting the trigeminal nerve, which carries sensation from the face to the brain, was previously known as “Fothergill’s Disease,” as it was first described by prominent English physician John Fothergill. 

Right now, lots of bass pros are feeling a different chronic pain disorder spread by a different Fothergill. It’s not clear if there’s a cure.

When it comes to Classic week, the reigning champ is not letting off the gas. His mojo certainly wasn’t lessened or spooked by any fear of Friday the 13th as he’s now led the last three Bassmaster Classic competition days and threatens to go back-to-back.

But it wasn’t easy, at least not in the morning. 

“I’m not going to lie,” he told his cameraman. “I was mentally down in the dumps a little bit.”

Only one of the five fish he weighed in today came before noon, and that one missed the witching hour by a mere 2 minutes. But around 1:30 he went on a ridiculous tear and culled up to 21 pounds 8 ounces. Meanwhile, just a few flips of a dice bait away, there was Elite rookie Fisher Anaya, who showed no Classic jitters whatsoever. He just caught bass after bass after bass. 

As soon as Fothergill went on his tear, Anaya counterpunched with a giant of his own, a 4 ½ pound smallmouth.

“I hate to burn ‘em down today because I don’t think nobody’s found ‘em,” Anaya said, similarly unaware of what was going on nearby. He culled up to 20-15, just 9 ounces back. Any other Day 1 in Knoxville Classic history, he’d be the lead dog, but even in second he still has more than a puncher’s chance of inflicting some pain of his own.

Can you call it a heavyweight fight if one of the contestants looks like he only weighs a buckten? 

Put them face to face, and the two young pros – one the most recent Classic winner, the other the most recent Elite champ – would look like David vs Goliath. But this is less of a one-on-one fight, more of a round robin tournament. There are three more pros over 19 pounds and another trio over 18. 

The reports were right, it’s going to be a slugfest. We still haven’t seen a 6-pounder, let alone anything approaching the 10 that Alex Redwine caught when scouting.

Here’s what I saw, heard and thought as the spread of Fothergill’s Disease continued with scattered patches of resistance:

Easton Fothergill — “It’s amazing how one little clue can completely flip flop your day.”

Setting the Pace – Will we see the biggest winning weight of the three Knoxville Classics, as many predicted? In 2019, Ott DeFoe won here with 49-3, an average of a little over 16-6 a day. Four years later, Jeff Gustafson won with 42-7 overall, a little over 14-2 a day. Today 16-6 would’ve been 12th and 14-2 is the cut weight. Barring them letting out the drain plug on the Tennessee River, I’d say you could bet the farm on 50-plus, and I wouldn’t rule out 60.

Cut Weight Math – In both 2019 and 2023, 25th place after Day 1 was 9-4. In 2019, the cut weight went up after Day 2. Doubling 9-4 would’ve been 18-8, but it took 20-1 to fish on Sunday. Four years later, the cut weight was only 16 pounds – that’s 2 ½ pounds less than double the Day 1 mark. Today there are three anglers tied at the cut line with 14-2. Double that and you’ve got 28-4, and lots of us expect the bite to get better as the conditions improve and the anglers get dialed in again.

Fisher Anaya – “It’s all right to be dumb when you land ‘em.” He boat flipped a solid largemouth around 12:30, his first green fish of the day, which put him at an estimated 18-6.

Twenties and Teens  In 2019 there were two 20-pound bags, topped by Chris Zaldain’s Day 2 catch of 21-12. In 2023, there were none – Jeff Gustafson had the only two bags over 17 pounds and topped out at 18-8. Today, Easton Fothergill led off the top of the first with 21-8 and Fisher Anaya swept in late with another over 20. Gussy’s 18-8 would have been good for 9th today. The difference among the tournaments is even more pronounced further down the leaderboard. In 2019, there were a total of 13 bags over 16 pounds, and in 2023 there were four of them – 17 in six days of competition. Today alone there were 14. 

Justin Hamner (21st, 14-10), who was challenged by the muddy water – “Still not a fan of orange, go figure. Roll Tide.”

First Time Success – Five of the top ten in the standings are fishing their first Classic – Fisher Anaya, Dylan Nutt, Paul Marks, Yui Aoki and Dakota Ebare. 

Experience Sometimes Doesn’t Pay Off – None of the four anglers competing in the Classic for the 10th time, or more, is in the top 30. Of the 22 anglers fishing this week who also participated in the 2023 Classic, only seven are inside the top 25. All three anglers in the field who competed in both the 2019 and 2023 Classics are outside the top 25, and two of them are 52nd or worse.

It’s a Small World – Today, Taku Ito (23rd, 14-4) reported finding “small smallmouth Disneyland.” Tomorrow he hopes to find “biggest smallmouth Disneyland.” I hear the lines are shorter there.

International Contenders  With three Canadians and three Japanese anglers in the field, there still remains a chance we’ll have a second Japanese Classic winner, a second Canadian winner, and/or second consecutive international winner in Knoxville Classics, but they’ll have someheavy lifting to do. The top Canadian angler today was reigning two-time AOY Chris Johnston(T12th, 16-5), while the top Japanese contender was Yui Aoki (7th, 18-11), who qualified by winning an Open at Kentucky Lake. That’s where the first major win from a Japanese pro occurred: Norio Tanabe in 1993. Tanabe finished 6th in the 2000 Classic in Chicago and has been a major influence on Elite champion Takumi Ito.

Tommy Sanders – “It’s hard to have three days where you don’t have a tough day.” Last year Fothergill topped 22 pounds every day. When Gustafson won here in 2023, he fell victim to the dreaded “tough day” on Sunday but managed to hold onto the lead he’d established over two days to claim the win.

Sad Reality – This morning featured perfect weather for a Kenora Dinner Jacket.

Dirt Devils  Some fans have described the battle between “traditional fishing” and “scoping” as an existential war between good and evil. Today the guys who presumably went old school – noted river rats and shallow water fiends like Bryan Schmitt (51st, 5-9), Bill Lowen (36th, 12-0), Brock Mosley (29th, 13-14), John Cox (34th, 12-10), Brandon Lester (52nd, 5-8) and John Crews(50th, 6-1) all seemed to struggle. Actually, Lowen, Mosley and Cox had decent weights by historical Knoxville standards, and they’re not out of the hunt, their catches just got obscured by better performances above them.

Back in Style – Butt seats.

Dissenting Opinion from 2023 Classic Winner Jeff Gustafson – “I feel like kind of a loser if I have a butt seat up there.”

Davy Hite on Easton Fothergill’s afternoon heroics — “The defending world champion giggling is bad news for the rest of the field.”

More Fashion – If Trey McKinney (11th, 16-10), Tripp Berlinsky (12th, 16-5) or Fisher Anaya(2nd, 20-15) take over the role of youngest Classic champ in history, they should be forced to wear Stanley Mitchell’s iconic two-tone embroidered down vest for the remainder of the tournament season.

Chris Miller (53rd, 5-4) – “I picked a bad day to suck.”

Best Promotion for a Signature Product for an Angler Not Competing (Non-Coike Divison)– Mark Rose Carolina Rig Rod.

Best Zona/Sanders Sports Reference of the Day – Danny Almonte

Fab Four – Today’s catch included largemouths, smallmouths, spots and meanmouths.

Zona on the Coike – “Dude, if I see that swimming in my lake, I’m never swimming in that lake again.”

Historical Fact – Fort Loudoun was named for John Campbell, 4th Earl of Loudoun, commander of British forces in North America in the mid-18th century. We have three Japanese anglers in the field this week, along with three from Canada and one born in Denmark, but none from the UK.

Noted Sandbagger Patrick Walters (3rd, 19-10) – “I just lie to myself. That way when you do weigh ‘em, it makes you happy.” I’ve given Fothergill and Anaya lots of attention in this column, and rightfully so, but they better keep their eyes open for a charging Walters, one of the best closers in the sport.

What’s in a Name? – As a member of the media I’m not supposed to cheer for any particular angler, but I’d like to have Dylan Nutt win just to hear what sort of borderline-NSFW victory call would come out of Dave Mercer’s mouth.

What Tomorrow Holds – Chamber of Commerce weather, high of about 70, with light winds. That could make it easier for the scopers to stay locked on fish. It could also cause more fish to move shallow, setting things up for a “traditional” angler. Don’t expect Fothergill or Anaya to slip much, but someone with one of those rumored 25-pound bags – or back-to-back twenties, could make it a horse race.