What will the Top 12 cut-weight be?

I don’t recall an Elite Series tournament where the anglers have been so accurate in their forecasts. Their predictions the day before a tournament are usually about as accurate as a 10-day weather forecast.

But let’s give credit where credit is due. On Wednesday, Justin Lucas said, “I don’t think it’s going to take 20 pounds a day to get (a top 50 check after two days), but I won’t be surprised if it’s 19-something.”

It took a two-day total of 38-11 to make the Top 50, in other words, 19 pounds, 5.5 ounces, a day.

On Wednesday, Brandon Palaniuk guessed it would take 21 pounds a day to make the Top 12 cut, in other words, 63 pounds.

Both of those predictions seemed outlandish at the time. We won’t know the exact accuracy of Palaniuk’s estimate until the weigh-in concludes this afternoon. But three tournament days on the St. Lawrence River have proven them to be astonishingly on the money.