A statistically unlikely win

Goose eggs happen, but adding no weight on a given tournament’s qualifying day typically nixes one’s hopes of a final-round berth. But say you make it to the last day, what are your chances of winning?

 

Admittedly, after starting Championship Saturday at the Basspro.com Bassmaster Central Open on the Arkansas River with the dooming scenario rattling around in his head, William Young did not consider probability in his favor — at least not until Tournament Director Chris Bowes announce his 21-pound, 6-ounce total had earned the first place co-angler trophy.

By the numbers, the competitor from Livingston, Texas led Day 1 with 10 pounds 11 ounces, blanked on day two, but then mirrored his opening effort with another 10-11.

“I was really nervous coming in today, knowing that I had zeroed and knowing that these other co-anglers were going to catch ‘em today,” Young said. “My pro and I were talking numbers all day. That weight surprised me, for sure.”

Young said his improbable achievement hinged on flawless final round fishing.

“Everything went the way I needed it to,” Young said. “I didn’t miss any fish, I set the hook on everything that bit and I was luck to get everything in the boat. 

“I was down this morning, but my boater (Jonn Garrett) told me ‘We’re going to be on ‘em.’ After getting one fish, two fish in the boat, I started getting my positive attitude back and realized it was possible. We caught fish all day.”