So the idea here for this little blog series is to try to make some predictions. Predict some patterns, predict some of the weights we’ll see, etc. After being completely blindsided by the cancellation of Day 3, we’ll look back at some of how the Day 2 predictions went and rework our overall predictions for the winning weight and top 10 weights with only 3 days of competition now.
Day 2 in review
I must admit, I’m a little proud of the accuracy of my Day 2 predictions, and since I may never get this close again, I thought we’d take a look at how they went. At the start of Day 2, I predicted the cutline for the top 47 anglers to be somewhere around 32- pounds, 10- ounces. At the close of the scales yesterday, the actual Phoenix Boats Cutline settled in at 33- pounds, 1- ounce… off by 7 ounces. Gotta do better than that.
The prediction for the Day 2 lead was that one of the top 3 anglers would back up their Day 1 performance and lead with 56- pounds. Drew Cook did just that and eclipsed my prediction by 6- ounces, leading going into the final day now with 56- pounds, 9- ounces.
Predictions
I had still hoped we’d see the century mark broken this week, but now with a shortened competition I know that’s nearly impossible. I’m predicting a 3 day total winning weight of 79- pounds, 9- ounces. I believe Cook will finish the week out with around 23- pounds and seal the deal. But I also wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the 3 absolute hammers that are on his tail drop the biggest bag of the week on the scales and take it from him. John Cox in 4th place would need 33- plus to get the job done, making him the last but possibly even the most credible threat to Cook in my opinion.
Looking at the top 10 after 3 days, I still say we’ll be close to 20- pounds a day and the 59- pound mark I predicted yesterday. There are currently 15 anglers averaging 20- pounds a day or better after Day 2. And I believe between the off day and that number of guys in striking distance, we’ll see it take 59- pounds or maybe even a little more to finish in the top 10 here this week.