Can you win this one in the river?

WADDINGTON, N.Y. — Brandon Palaniuk isn’t one of those anglers with a lot on the line at this final Elite Series tournament of the season. He’s fifth in Angler of the Year points, too far back to catch Seth Feider for the AOY title. Palaniuk’sBassmaster Classic berth for 2022 is clinched.

About noon Wednesday, after a slow day of practice Monday on Lake Ontario and a decent practice day Tuesday on the St. Lawrence River, Palaniuk had an epiphany. 

“B.P. don’t fish for second,” he thought, before putting his boat on the trailer and dropping it in Lake Ontario. “I’m going to go allin at the lake. I’ve got nothing to lose.”

Who else will make that decision, when the four-day Farmers Insurance Bassmaster Elite at the St. Lawrence River begins Thursday at 7 a.m.? Daily weigh-ins begin at 3 p.m. Both will take place at Whitaker Park.

Palaniuk has done this before. In 2013 he won the Elite Series tournament at Waddington by making the 85-mile run to Lake Ontario four days in a row and totaling 88 pounds, 12 ounces. He was the only angler in the field who risked that long run to the lake every day. However, there are plenty of other anglers who will probably join him on that journey this year. There’s an automatic Bassmaster Classic berth for the winner of this tournament. It’s the only way some of these anglers are going to make it. Plus, everyone saw what’s possible in Lake Ontario last year when the tournament went out of Clayton, and Chris Johnston won with 97 pounds, 8 ounces of smallmouth bass.

“I don’t know what I’m going to do yet,” said Scott Canterbury, the 2019 Elite Series Angler of the Year. “I’d like to fish the lake, but it depends on the wind. I’m in a situation where I need to win to make the Classic.

“The way to win is going to the lake. I’m just not on them that good out there. I caught some big ones, really big. I caught a 6-pounder. I just can’t catch ‘em fast enough to chance that. I need to have four or five hours to fish.”

If the wind is blowing and you have to take your time getting to Lake Ontario due to rough water, you might have only three hours to fish before it would be time to head back to Waddington.

Seth Feider is definitely not going to Lake Ontario. He’s got a 55-point AOY lead over second-place Patrick Walters and a 69-point lead over third-place Chris Johnston. 

“I lied to you last week,” said Feider, referring to a comment he made before the tournament at Lake Champlain, when he had a 48-point lead going into it. “I told you I’d be a lot less nervous if I had that lead with one tournament left. I’ve got a bigger lead now with one tournament left and I’m more nervous than I was then.”

There are too many risks involved for Feider to make the long run, so he’s going to stay close in the St. Lawrence River. He’s done well here in the past, finishing no lower than 34th in five previous Elite Series events at the St. Lawrence River – four of them out of Waddington. However, he’s not encouraged after practice.

“It’s fishing way different,” Feider said. “There’s no current. The fish are super scattered – one here, one there. The fish here are just not grouped up yet. The guys in the lake will catch ‘em. That’s the place to be, it’s just not for me.”

You know the two anglers with the best chance to catch Feiderin AOY points – Patrick Walters and Chris Johnston – will be going to Lake Ontario.

“A big part of fishing is knowing your weakness,” Walters said. “Drifting in the river is a weakness for me. I haven’t made a cut here yet because I tried to drift in the river.”

Walters finished 47th last year at Clayton and 57th two years ago at Waddington.

As for Johnston, he became the first Canadian to win at Elite Series tournament when he almost topped 100 pounds over four days – all spent on Lake Ontario. He and his brother, Cory, are probably as comfortable fishing rough water as any two anglers on the Elite Series.

There is so much on the line this week – up and down the list of 94 anglers in this field. There’s a tight battle for Rookie of the Year, where KJ Queen leads Bryan New by 24 points and Matt Robertson by 27 points. Some anglers are on the Classic cut-line and need a strong tournament here. Other anglers need every point possible to ensure re-qualifying for the Elite Series next week. And, again, there’s the automatic Classic berth for the winner of this tournament. 

Do I stay or do I go? That’ll likely be the question of the night for many of these anglers. Do I take the risk of the long run to Lake Ontario, or do I stay in the St. Lawrence River and play it safe?