LUFKIN, Texas — Imagine two-day leader Brent Ehrler’s surprise when he caught 24 pounds, 3 ounces on Day 3 – his biggest bag of the tournament – and dropped to second place. Ehrler and Brandon Palaniuk have been separated by less than a pound since Day 1. As we go into the final day, the margin is a mere two ounces.
“You can go out and have an amazing day, and you still don’t have enough,” Ehrler said. “It’s an unreal fishery.”
Sam Rayburn Reservoir has produced jaw-dropping highlights the previous three days of the Toyota Bassmaster Texas Fest benefiting the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. However, the best may be yet to come. It will be in the form of a Sunday two-man shootout. Palaniuk and Ehrler have separated themselves from the rest of the Top 12 final by over 10 pounds.
“It’s not one of those tournaments where if I go catch 18 or 19 pounds, I might be able to win it,” Palaniuk said. “I have to go shoot for 25 to 30 pounds because that’s what it’s going to take. We’re two ounces apart, and we’ve each averaged about 24 pounds a day.”
Palaniuk’s three-day total of 72-0 is exactly that – a 24-pound average. The two leaders aren’t fishing close to each other, but they do have the common bond of having deep schools of big bass and shallow spots as well. Instead of zigging or zagging – sticking with one pattern, Palaniuk and Ehler have zig-zagged all three days. But it’s those deep schools that are the difference makers.
Ehrler predicted from the start that the winner of this tournament would discover deep schools to exploit. Every angler in this 109-man field probably looked for that, knowing bass are transitioning to their summertime habitat. Only Ehrler and Palaniuk have had consistent success deep.
“The fish are going that way,” Ehrler said. “They have the cover to stay shallow, but they want to be deep. You know those fish are going to be unpressured. So if a guy has a deep spot to himself, he’s going to do well.
“I don’t know how Brandon’s fishing. I’m assuming he’s catching some deep. He’s caught big fish every day. He’s on the right fish to win this thing.”
Yes, he is. Palaniuk said his deepest bass Friday was caught at a depth of 27 feet. Ehrler has the big bass of the tournament, a 9-1 caught on Day 1. Palaniuk might have lost the big bass of the week Friday. It was just out of reach when it broke his line.
“It was not a very good day of execution, but I’ve lost them every day,” Palaniuk said. “(Friday) was just the day that I got them all the way to the boat and they broke off, came off, for whatever reason.
“That one big one might have been the biggest of the tournament. I don’t know how big it was, but it was quite a bit larger than the 8-4 I caught the first day. Heartbreaking.”
And, possibly, expensive as well. The angler catching the big bass in this event will take home a $50,000 Toyota pickup truck.
“I know I’m going to lose some,” Palaniuk said. “I’m okay with it, but it’s really hard to swallow. I will not forget that fish until (Sunday) is over, and I’ll either forget about it, or I won’t.”
Obviously, with only two ounces separating the leaders, that bass could end up being a difference-maker. But it might not make any difference at all. Ehrler noted that nothing has come easily for him this week, and pointed to the day Randy Howell endured Friday. Howell caught 23-15 and 19-13 the first two days and was in fourth place. He caught only 11-1 Friday and dropped to 20th.
“The way I’m fishing for the most part is real finicky,” Ehrler said. “But it has worked out so far every day.”
Here’s the reason why neither angler is likely to struggle Sunday: They’ve both got areas still to be fully explored. For instance, Ehrler went to a spot late Friday and caught a 6-pounder that helped him close what had been a 3-pound, 5-ounce Palaniuk lead.
“I didn’t want anybody to see me,” Ehrler said. “That gave me 24 pounds, and I thought for sure that would give me the lead, so I got out of there. I might go there earlier Sunday.”
Palaniuk has a couple of spots where he found big fish in practice, but because of the steady, double-digit southerly winds during the first three days of the tournament he hasn’t returned. The wind is predicted to be light Sunday.
“I’ll definitely start and make the same rotation I’ve made the last three days,” Palaniuk said. “If that school is biting, I’m going to sit there and beat on them until there’s not a single (sonar) dot left under there. But if they’re not, then I’ll run the stuff I haven’t run in three days.”
Think about all that: Ehrler with a spot he hadn’t fished all week, then caught a 6-pounder and left Friday; Palaniuk with an area he hasn’t fully exploited yet, and a backup plan that he’s left undisturbed all week.
It’s unlikely that either angler will falter Sunday. This is going to be a good ol’ Sunday shootout with a $100,000 first place prize and an automatic Bassmaster Classic berth at stake.