Texas Fest: Lake Fork predictions

QUITMAN, Texas — Things are amiss at Lake Fork. The water is higher than normal. Muddy too. Heavy rainfall is in the forecast. The bass are in a postspawn funk, otherwise known as that narrow window of time before those fish school up on their summer haunts. Two weeks early or late after the last full moon, and before the next when the bite is insane. And all of it just in time for the highly anticipated Toyota Texas Fest benefitting the Texas Parks & Wildlife Department.

In reality, the above would hold true for any other lake except this one—the crown jewel in the TPWD trophy bass management program. We know it as Toyota ShareLunker and this was where it all began. Lake Fork tops the list of producing entries and there is no end in sight.

Pre-tournament reports indicated the bite was on for four-plus pounders, with bass nearing double digits being caught in fair numbers. Do some rough math and you can easily come up with a four-day winning weight of over 100 pounds. The B.A.S.S. Century Club will no doubt gain new members.

You can see winning weight predictions in the photo gallery devoted to the topic. But how’s this one? Lee Livesay, who last year guided 300-plus days on the lake, predicted a winning weight of 120 pounds in Mike Suchan’s popular Daily Limit column.

Are things really amiss at Lake Fork? That depends on who you ask. The truth will be known next Monday. Until then here is what some of the nonresident contestants had to say about their practice.

Brandon Lester: “I came here expecting it to be an offshore bite, but I don’t think it will unless it progresses during the tournament. I spent a lot of time idling and looking offshore and only caught one in about 12 feet of water. If it’s won offshore it could be on a bar in about five- or six-feet of water. I saw a lot of fish guarding fry and some late spawners. Some are just easing around recovering from the spawn. Another key factor is going to be the shad spawn, which is very prominent. You will probably see BASSTrakk really light up early in the morning. I have only seen it in a few places, but it’s going to be important to get an early boat number and be on those key areas. It can get right in a hurry.”

Mark Menendez: Practice was typical Lake Fork in that on any given cast you become a hero. It’s going to take big numbers, and there are a lot of fish still in shallow water. Today I caught a ten pounder and it was as arbitrary as anything. There is a big luck factor involved this week, because there is so much pressure on the shorelines. Get on the right rotation in front of someone and you can come in with 35 pounds. Get in the wrong rotation, behind someone, and you can come up with 15 pounds. If a big fish comes into shallow water it’s going to get caught, and you never know who that might be.

Chris Zaldain: Practice was fun. I know we talk about the cliché all the time about a lake fishing small it’ll be a factor this week. Our guys are dispersing evenly throughout the lake, but you’ve also got to add the licensed guides and then the recreational fishermen coming in this weekend. As for me, I am going for five big bites a day, nothing more, nothing less. I’m not throwing anything shorter than six inches, mostly nine. If the fish are in front of your lure, they eat it. There is no finessing to it.

Scott Canterbury: I was expecting to catch them out deep and did not. I am going to tie on a spinnerbait and see what happens. All it takes is two or three big bites and you’ll have 25-plus pounds, which is silly. The shad spawn is going to be a big deal unless the weather messes it up. Thunderstorms and heavy rain are in the forecast, and that can shut them down. They don’t pull up shallow to feed.

Todd Auten: I’m not finding any fish out deep. It’s a lot of beating the banks. There are still a lot of fish on beds. Others are in the postspawn funk. They want to leave but the water temperature hasn’t gotten warm enough for them to do it. It’s going to be a grind. That means covering a lot of water. I don’t think it’ll be as good as it usually is, but the thing here is when you set the hook you don’t know how much it weighs. It could be a ten pounder.