Fantasy Fishing: Heavy favorites and sneaky picks

Written by

Pete Robbins

As the 2023 Bassmaster Elite Series season approaches its conclusion, it’s time for the competitors to put up and shut up, and at the turn they’re hitting a venue that most of them have fished before – Lake St. Clair. The giant bowl-like fishery, which spans Michigan and Canada, has been on major tournament schedules for nearly three decades.

You might think that would make picking your Rapala Bassmaster Fantasy Fishing team easier. Indeed, as of the time of this writing, there seems to be some consensus about tournament favorites. All five brackets have at least one angler commanding more than 30% of the vote, and two drawing at least 56% of it. That means we have all sorts of onesie-twosies commanding single digits. They may be there for a reason, but they also might be fantastic value picks.

Therein lies the rub with Fantasy Fishing: Top picks usually get there for a reason. When they succeed, lots of their fans ride on their coattails. When they fail, it can crush a roster for an event, or even for an entire season.

Do we bet on anglers based on how they’re fishing now, how they’ve performed in the past, or what we expect them to become? Or is it less of a science and more of an art? At times, it seems like pure guesswork. We all want to be the guy who picked an unknown commodity, but we don’t want to miss out on a sure thing.

With that as a framework, I’ve locked in on three of those high-percentage picks, one who should be in that category and a sentimental favorite. In case you don’t like any or all of them, or want to bet on a low ownership percentage thoroughbred, I’ve also added my “sneaky picks” for your edification and amusement.

BUCKET A: PALANIUK

My pick: Despite the fact that it would seemingly fit some of his many strengths, Brandon Palaniuk‘s finishes on St. Clair have worsened in three tries, going from second to 29th to 61st, but he recently announced on social media that his wife Tiffanie is pregnant with child number two. He’s not out of the AOY race, but sitting in 19th it would be a tough hill to climb with limited runway in front of him. A win or even a Top 10 would move him in that direction.

Sneaky pick: John Cox is known as a shallow water, minimal electronics largemouth guy, exactly the type of angler who should be preemptively ruled out on St. Clair. He finished third here in 2020 doing his own thing, and at 28 points out of the AOY lead he could make for a compelling storyline headed into the tail end of the season.

BUCKET B: CHRIS JOHNSTON

My pick: You can’t go up north and fail to pick at least one Johnston. If you do, you’d better have a compelling reason for it. I’m sticking with high-percentage pick Chris Johnston, who finished sixth here in 2020.

Sneaky pick: Clark Wendlandt first competed on St. Clair in a Top 100 in 1994, before a decent number of his current competitors were born. In his AOY season of 2020 he finished sixth, so that long history and recent success makes him another value pick.

BUCKET C: CHRISTIE

My pick: With Gussy and Cory Johnston in his bracket, I guess it’s not a surprise that Jason Christie hasn’t drawn more ownership, especially since he’s having a fairly atypical year. Nevertheless, he’s won twice on St. Clair — in 2012 and 2017 — and also came in seventh in 2015. He claims not to be watching the points, but he needs to move up to slide into a home state Classic in 2024.

Sneaky pick: This one’s not truly a surprise, since Cooper Gallant has almost the same ownership percentage as Christie, but he’s still something of an unknown as an Elite. With the hammers listed above in the same bracket, he may be a slightly risky pick, but he’s shown an ability to win on smallmouth waters. No one should be surprised if he competes for the top spot here.

BUCKET D: ITO

My pick: Given his early career success, it seemed like Taku Ito would be a lock not only for fan favorite, but also for a Classic berth from now until the end of time. Unfortunately, he finds himself unexpectedly in 81st place. The Classic isn’t completely out of reach, but it’ll take multiple top performances in multiple Smallmouth Disneylands to extend his qualifying streak to four.

Sneaky pick: I don’t believe we’ve seen what Josh Douglas can do on tour yet, particularly in smallmouth country. The Mille Lacs veteran has a chance to make a statement in this event, and anyone picking him if and when he does so will look prescient.

BUCKET E: NIXON

My pick: Like Wendlandt, The General Larry Nixon has been fishing Bassmaster events on St. Clair since 1994, earning a victory in 1999 and a sixth-place finish in 2001. His return to Bassmaster events hasn’t gone quite as anticipated, but the seasoned vet knows more about forward-facing sonar than you’d expect, and he can make a little worm dance like nobody’s business.

Sneaky pick: Alex Weatherell is another relatively unknown commodity who finally showed his Elite mettle with an eighth-place finish at the Sabine River. Now that the tour is moving from the South to the North, we can reasonably expect to see the Connecticut pro rise out of the depths of Bucket E.