MOUNTAIN HOME, Ark. — It’s a case of weather or whether, but how that riddle plays out will determine much for the Nitro Boats Bassmaster Elite Qualifier at Norfork Lake presented by Bass Pro Shops.
Competition days will be Sept. 23-25 with daily takeoffs from Buzzard Roost Boat Dock at 7 a.m. CT and weigh-ins each day at the same location at 3 p.m.
Bassmaster competition returns to this White River fishery nearly 18 months after the 2025 Turtlebox Bassmaster Open presented by Battery Tender. That spring event found Norfork with a very different complexion than the lake currently displays, but notably, weather also impacted last year’s tournament, just in a manner opposite of what anglers will find in this first of three 2026 EQ events.
Bassmaster Opens pro Rick Pierce, who lives 3 miles from Norfork said his home lake has been feeling the effects of persistent regional drought conditions. A week prior to the tournament, Norfork stood at 553.76 feet, which is only slightly below normal summer level, but even at this level, the lake’s gonna be moody.
“We haven’t had much rain and it’s been a hot summer, so we’ve had a lot of evaporation,” Pierce said.
The tournament week forecast shows a much-awaited cooldown that should pull daytime highs from the upper 90s and low 100s into the mid-80s. That’ll make for more comfortable fishing conditions, but Pierce is concerned that it’s too little too late.
“The water temperature is cooling, but it’s not going to come down much in the next week,” he said. “By the time the tournament starts, we’re gonna see water in the 80s.”
Contrast that to the much cooler 2025 event at Norfork, when the forecasts for severe weather, including heavy thunderstorms, hail and possible tornadoes, prompted B.A.S.S. officials to cancel the event’s scheduled second and third days. Casey Scanlon, an Ozarks veteran from Eldon, Mo., who lead Day 1 with 18 pounds, 5 ounces was declared the winner.
About a week prior to the tournament, the long-range forcast showed little indication of signifiant rainfall. However, we’re inching into that time of year when the weather likes to pull little pranks on the fishing world.
“There’s no rain in the forecast, but we could get a dumping rainstorm and this thing could turn it on and it would be amazing,” Pierce said. “There are (several) creeks that feed the lake with some flow, but that flow has been down lately, so those creeks are pretty warm.
“A lot depends on what happens before the tournament. The temperatures in the mornings have been in the 70s so the lake is cooling a little bit, but we had 20 days of 100-degree heat, so it’s really just now starting too cool.”
Last year, Scanlon fished the mid-lake region and focused on the backs of major creeks where he knew the bigger fish would follow the rising water. He caught his fish on a 1/2-ounce spinnerbait and a 4-inch flipping tube.
Pierce said late September on Norfork Lake should find fish in the early stages of their fall transition. It’s still too soon to see the fish schooling on baitfish back in the creeks, but Pierce expects them to be pointing their noses in that direction.
Pierce said topwaters, spinnerbaits, and crankbaits should deliver during the morning bite, with drop shots and Texas-rigged lizards or worms a good bet during the warmer hours. Progressive Bassmaster Elite Series pro Austin Cranford, who placed 33rd in last year’s Open at Norfork amplified the topwater prediction.
“Guys will catch ’em on walkers, buzzbaits, and ploppers,” the Oklahoma pro said. “It’s gonna be hot, so there will be a thermocline and those fish can’t be very deep, so I feel they’re very susceptible to a topwater. They’re gonna be shallow because that’s where the (dissolved) oxygen is the highest.
“In the fall, you’re gonna catch them on bluffs, (private) docks, and riprap. Any wood in the water, there will be a fish on it.”
Pierce also notes that, if an angler can locate any decent current, a 3/4- to 1-ounce jig might deliver big smallmouth bites. A rain event before or during the tournament could deliver just enough flow to trigger this game-changing scenario.
“Generally, I would say that largemouth will be more dominant, but if the anglers get on top of one another, the smallmouth could play a role,” Pierce said. “But it’s gonna be a little early for smallmouth with the water temperatures.”
Another factor that’s sure to influence the tournament’s outcome will be the prohibition of forward facing sonar. The ability to monitor fish behavior in realtime would likely spread the field across more of the fishery, but without this technology, Pierce is looking for more crowding in key areas.
“Fall is normally difficult here and (without forward facing sonar), the areas that are strong are going to fish a little small,” Pierce said. “Someone could get into one of the non-primary areas and do well.”
Pierce said the area’s history of flooding will further limit the fishable area.
“Normally, we would have some river conditions where four or five anglers might find some river fish, but I don’t think those fish will exist in enough volume, because past flooding has pushed a lot of gravel bars around,” he said. “There will be some navigational issues up there with the low water and guys can (get stuck) if they’re not careful.”
Pierce estimates anglers will need a 12-pound daily average to make the final round. A winning three-day total could go high 30s to about 40.
“I think you’ll get a morning bite and then a late bite and that late bite is when you’ll get your bigger fish,” Cranford said. “There’s a ton of fish in Norfork, so everybody is gonna get bites.
“Whoever can figure out how to generate those big 3-pound bites all day, that’s gonna be the deal.”
Coverage of the Nitro Boats Bassmaster Elite Qualifier at Norfork Lake presented by Bass Pro Shops can be found on Bassmaster.com. Bassmaster LIVE will be available on Friday, Sept. 25 from 8-11 a.m. ET and Noon-3 p.m. on Bassmaster.com and Roku Sports Channel.
This event is being hosted by the City of Mountain Home, Arkansas.
