Elite Analysis: Mississippi River – Day 2

For a bunch of Elite Series pros, today marked the end of their 2022 quest.

Johnston had an audience watching his performance.

Even more than baseball, tournament fishing is a sport consisting of long periods of inactivity punctuated by brief moments of chaos. Waiting is the sport’s one consistent attribute: We wait for the season to start, and then we wait for it to draw to a close and in between, there are all sorts of inflection points – everything from waiting to see if an angler will fill out a limit to whether he’ll get to fish another day.

For a bunch of Elite Series pros, today marked the end of their 2022 quest. Most of them can turn their attention to other things. Not all, though. Classic berths and season-ending awards still remain to be shaken out, so there’s more waiting on horizon, including at the top of the race.

Every day, we’ll see one more card revealed, maybe two.

Just don’t wait too long to weigh in. The shad or crawfish one of your fish spits up could be a difference-maker. First-place pro Chris Johnston has 31-14, second is an ounce behind, and third is an ounce behind that.

As we wait for Day Three, here’s what I think I saw and heard on a rainy Saturday from La Crosse, with a few hat tips to the late Tom Petty:

Make Me Wanna Live Like I Wanna Live Now – Keith Combs has inexplicably suffered through a few bad years, including rough finishes in places where he’s historically done well. La Crosse has been mostly good to him over his Elite career, with three checks on four attempts. This week promises to be something bigger, as today he dropped a Texas-sized 17-07 bag on the scales and enters Day Three two ounces out of the lead. If he can turn his current 3rd place standing into a win, it’ll remove the stink of a season that’s been his worst – putting him back in the Classic for the first time since 2020. “I’m all in,” he said. Indeed, sometimes an angler needs a break – his Day One spot got blown out and his backup area produced the big sack. 

Don’t Let This Go Too Far– The last time Combs came close to winning an Elite Series tournament was last July at Champlain, where he ultimately finished 2nd. The winner was none other than Bryan Schmitt, who beat him by 8 ounces. Somehow I doubt that Combs is thinking about revenge at all – and he’s probably not even thinking about the $100,000 top prize as much as the spot in next year’s Classic. Today’s leader Chris Johnston came in 12th in that event.

Don’t Let it Get to You – I’ve sat through storm delays and fog delays as an angler and as a member of the media – at everything from local derbies to the Bassmaster Classic – and I can tell you that discretion is almost always the better part of valor. Nevertheless, whether it’s 10 minutes or 3 hours, a delay of any kind plays tricks on even the most seasoned anglers’ minds. They might miss a shad spawn or a good tide, or as in La Crosse a chance to lock through to another pool. No matter what it condenses the game plan and reduces the room for error. Anglers were already on edge that things would change today due to altered water conditions, but sitting there had to be painful.

All It Ever Got Me Was Down – No one wants to back into the title, or miss out on it because he didn’t have a chance to improve his position while his competition made a move. Both Brandon Lester and Brandon Palaniuk (as well as Chris Johnston, of course) will fish again tomorrow, but there’s no guarantee that they’ll all still be fishing when the race is ultimately decided. We’ve seen some blowout AOY races over the years, but I’ll always remember 2005.

When Aaron Martens won the AOY title that year, he clinched it in the season-ending tournament at Table Rock. Martens earned it, entering the final day in 6th, and needing to finish no worse than 4th to claim the trophy. Meanwhile, his closest competition, Marty Stone, did not make the cut to fish the final day and had to watch helplessly as A-Mart rose to second, knowing there was nothing he could do to gain more points and help himself.

One More Yard – Palaniuk made the cut by just over a pound, driven by a reported 2-12 that he caught at 2:09 pm and a reported 1-04 limit filler that he landed at 3:27. Earlier, at around 1:30, we watched him on LIVE trying to determine if a near-keeper would hit the legal mark. It fell short by somewhere between 1/8 and ¼ of an ounce. That vertically-challenged (horizontally-challenged?) bass threatened to have more historical significance in the bass world than his pea-sized brain could ever imagine. Ultimately, he became a footnote. As Kyle Welcher explained on stage, “The difference between a 2-pounder and a 3-pounder is like half an inch long, but they’re like 10 inches around.”

Take It On Faith – Yesterday’s cut weight was an even 12 pounds, so based on past precedent one could reasonably expect it to take 25 pounds to make the cut. For the second straight tournament, the field missed that mark. Tyler River made it in with 23-09, and John Cox missed it with that same amount.

Fear My Heart – Carl Jocumsen fell one fish short of a limit, weighing in four fish for 7-15 and falling from 21st to 56th. With more casts left to go this week and then in the Opens, there appears to still be a chance he’ll join Kenta Kimura and Jay Prezekurat as first-time qualifiers through the Elite Series. He would, of course, become the first qualifier from Australia.

The Haves, The Have-Nots, and the Sorta-Have-Nots — “If I’ve caught one, I’ve caught a hundred,” said Matt Herren, who fell from 2nd place to 16th as he added 10-13 to his Day One catch of 16-08. That’s what’s so crazy about this sport. Brandon Palaniuk – one of the greatest and most consistent anglers in the recent history of the sport — likely would’ve given his most expensive glide bait at several points today for a couple of those fish Herren dismissed as insufficient and unhelpful. Eventually, he filled out his limit, but it was touch and go for a long time. Despite catching fewer fish, he ended up with a pound more than Herren today. Only your best five count.

Mount Grassmore – If Schmitt wins this week, do you have to consider him the best shallow water grass fisherman today, or at least in the conversation? He’s won three Toyota Series tournaments on the Potomac, one on the Upper Chesapeake, and one on the James River. Those are in his backyard – but he’s also won an FLW here on the Upper Mississippi, a Toyota on Toho, and both an Open and an Elite on Champlain. All of those have a green backdrop in common.

Big Bags – Yesterday Schmitt had the only bag over 17 pounds. There were four more over 16 pounds and an additional five over 15. Today a 3-pound or heavier average was slightly tougher to come by. Combs was the only pro to top 17 pounds. Scott Martin and Seth Feider both got over the 16-pound mark and five more surpassed 15. Johnston is the only angler who has topped 15 pounds each day. Five have weighed in 14-plus each day.

Gamesmanship – “All the pressure’s on Palaniuk. It’s not on me,” Brandon Lester said on stage.

Veteran Success – Of the massive 15-member Elite Series rookie class of 2011, only two remain on the Senior Circuit – AOY contender Brandon Palaniuk, and Keith Combs, currently tied for the lead in this event. Some experienced success along the way, like Ott DeFoe, who won the Rookie of the Year title that season as well as a subsequent Classic, while others are hard to remember a decade-plus later. I follow this sport about as closely as anyone this side of Ronnie Moore and there were two I wouldn’t recognize in a police lineup.

Yer So Bad — “You’re a bit of a drama queen,” Dave Mercer told Palaniuk onstage. Earlier in the day, Mercer told the LIVE audience that Palaniuk “runs on a pair of tires that are about to blow.”