Elite Analysis: Mississippi River – Day 1 

Welcome back to La Crosse, home of combat fishing and tight weights. 

Welcome back to La Crosse, home of combat fishing and tight weights. 

I have nothing against the St. Lawrence or Oahe – indeed, those venues produced two great tournaments – but after hundreds of hours of necks-craned-over pros dropping soft plastics on fish they saw as pixels first, it was really nice to get back to a shallow water slugfest. I’m sure some fish were caught on a Ned Rig or a dropshot, but there was a lot of power fishing and a lot of variety.

There’s still likely to be a lot of jockeying for position, because in a derby where the vast majority of the field weighs a limit, and there’s no true giant fish potential, a few ounces here and a few ounces there will make a great difference.

Here’s what I saw on an amazing first day:

Live By the Frog, Die By the Frog – Cody Huff said “We’ve been playing cat and mouse with a few that really suck at their job and apparently don’t like to eat your bait.” Gerald Swindle, who caught his fish today on a Terminator Frog, admitted that if you commit to it, “You’re going to do some cussing.” It’s part of the game – a chance at big fish corresponds proportionally to a chance at heartbreak. 

Duckweed – It wasn’t just the frog bite, it was the type of frog bite. This day was exciting because so much of the action occurred in duckweed. Over the years we’ve seen frog bites in lily pads, hydrilla, milfoil, pennywort and other forms of vegetation, but I don’t think there’s any other kind of salad that produces such distinct frog trails and blowup holes, as well as so many strikes where most of the bass is above the waterline.

What’s the Cut – Oahe was one of the rare Elite Series tournaments where the cut weight was lower than the traditional (2X+1) formula. After Day One here, 47th place is exactly 12 pounds so the formula means it should take 25 to progress to Sunday. 

Playing the Dozens – Tyler River told Dave Mercer that he “thought 12 a day was going to make the cut.” As noted above, he was correct, at least with regard to Day One. Fourteen anglers weighed in between 12-0 and 12-14. Another 14 weighed in between 13-01 and 13-14. Another nine are between 14-01 and 14-15. That means over 40 percent of the field is between 12 and 15 pounds. Flip it the other way, and there are 20 anglers between 10 pounds and 11-15, just one good bite or a few ounces per fish out of the cut. 

BP Gets Wild – Brandon Palaniuk is far from an automaton – we’ve seen him get animated on occasion during his decade-plus on the Elite Series – but he’s not one to let emotion get the better of him. That’s why it was so exciting to see him nearly hyperventilate after catching a swimbait fish that bit on the front end of a figure eight a little before noon today. After the stumble in South Dakota, he could’ve retreated into a shell or otherwise become guarded, but today he was an open book. He even dropped a “rad” into his post-catch verbal rampage. If he holds onto 35th place, it would be his second worst event of the year, but it would allow him to earn his second AOY trophy. Brandon Lester, who entered in second, sits in 12th, and appears unlikely to go down quietly.

The Hail Mary Bracket – We still don’t know how far down the Elite Series standings they’ll go to take Bassmaster Classic qualifiers. Right now, Brandon Lester, Kenta Kimura, Lee Livesay and Jason Christie seem likely to double-qualify, so we’re looking to go at least 44 deep. Jason Williamson entered La Crosse in 44th with 438 points. My best guess is that anyone entering 60th or lower is highly unlikely to qualify on points. Several anglers who entered in the fifties are near the top of the leaderboard, including tournament leader Bryan Schmitt, but Matt Herren currently seems to be most likely gain from a win. He entered in 78th in AOY and sits in 2nd in this tournament, a pound and two ounces behind Schmitt. Alex Redwine, who entered in 82nd place in AOY and now sits in 15th) and Keith Combs (81st, 16th), are also in striking range of salvaging a tough season.

Songs – Jay Przekurat’s walk-up polka finally music made sense. If he’s tired of accordions next year, he might turn to a different Wisconsin artist or group. Natives of the state include Les Paul, Liberace, Steve Miller, Garbage and the Violent Femmes. 

Plundering from Even Further North – The Wisconsin anglers struggled today. Jay Przekurat, Caleb Kuphall, Pat Schlapper and Bob Downey had 13-01, 12-13, 11-09 and 10-06, respectively. That puts them in 33rd, 35th, 50th and 65th (two barely inside the cut, two barely outside). That’s an average of 46th. Meanwhile, the three Canadians in the field, Jeff Gustafson, Chris Johnston and Cory Johnston, are in 4th, 4th (tied with 16-04) and 43rd. That’s an average of 17th.

When in Rome – “I think I’m going to round up a Spotted Cow and some cheese curds and regroup for tomorrow.” Matt Arey, currently in 9th with 15-08.

Not-So-Tough Times – By my count, we made it 56 anglers on Day One before we heard someone say, “It was a grind out there today.” Notably, it was Bill Lowen, who has built a career on excelling when times are tough. [Note: I did hear Stetson Blaylock say it was a “challenge” prior to Lowen’s cliché, but I don’t think that’s nearly as serious as a “grind”]. Koby Krieger, who weighed in about 20 places after Lowen, also used the “G word.”

Not in Ohio Anymore – Despite Lowen’s statement, it certainly wasn’t tough for every Midwesterner out there today. Fellow Ohio River rat Alex Redwine took a liking to the Upper Mississippi: “It’s almost like the Ohio River but there’s grass and there’s fish here,” he said. He’s currently 15th with 14-07.

Redwine’s Surge – Redwine, who will turn 23 tomorrow, struggled early in his Elite career, failing to finish in the top 50 in the first six tournaments. That included four finishes of 79th or worse. Since heading north, however, he’s come alive, finishing 26th at the St. Lawrence, 29th at Oahe, and he sits in 15th today. It would be a great birthday present to make another cut – and an even better one to make a substantial move up the scorecard.