Elite Analysis: Lake Fork – Day 1

“They’re snappin’ today.”

That’s how Texas transplant and Lake Fork enthusiast Chris Zaldain opened our broadcast today. He’d caught a 5-plus-pounder before his boat had fully coasted to a stop from the initial run, then quickly added an 8-pounder.

If that’s “snappin’,” then what we saw over the next few hours was – in the 1989 words of one-hit-wonder Young MC – stone cold munchin’.

Of course, many of the Top 10 don’t remember the erstwhile MTV superstar. They probably don’t even remember when MTV played actual music videos. The Bassmaster youth movement continued today – all gas, no brakes. There are four rookies in the Top 10, with 19-year-old Trey McKinney setting the pace in 4th, and no one who’s hit his 38th birthday sits inside that initial cut.

Indeed, we learned that 30 is the line of demarcation in all relevant matters – whether it’s age or how many pounds you weigh in.

So much for cold fronts having a negative impact on the fishing or Fork being overpressured. I’d really like to know what we would have seen with favorable conditions.

Here’s what I saw on the one of the greatest days of Elite Series competitions in recent memory:

The International Factor – Yesterday B.A.S.S. released their record-setting viewership and engagement numbers from the Elite Series event at Toledo Bend. Now we’re on track, for what I believe is the first time in the sport’s history, to have back-to-back international champions (yes, I know Taku is far from sealing the deal, but bear with me), with both hailing from Japan. For years, we’ve seen major sports from the NBA to the NFL to Major League Baseball place a hefty premium on international fandom as the route to growth and improving the on-field product. Anecdotally, I’ve been told that whenever Carl Jocumsen does well, B.A.S.S. sees a substantial viewership spike from Australia. While I’m not conceding that American interest in domestic professional fishing is tapped out, it has far less room to grow than interest from abroad. I’d love to know the Japanese viewership numbers from these first two events. Their growth may mean more than the already-publicized numbers viewed in a vacuum.

Shooting Your Age – In golf, it’s considered a big deal to “shoot your age” – in other words to earn a score lower than the number of years you’ve been on earth. In theory, it gets easier as you get older, and no one much under their mid-60s has a legit shot at achieving the feat. Is the fishing analogue to that catching a limit that weighs more than your age? If so, we have a bunch of qualifiers in this field today. Most notably, Taku Ito, who will turn 38 next month, “shot his age” with 39-1. So too did Stetson Blaylock (36 years old, 37 pounds 6 ounces) and four other members of the Top 10 – Trey McKinney, Justin Hamner, Wesley Gore and Kyle Patrick. McKinney was the greatest overachiever. The 19-year-old notched 33-11 for a differential of 14 pounds/years. That unofficial record may be one of the hardest to break in BASS history. Even those members of the Top 10 who missed didn’t miss by much – Kyle Norsetter, Matty Wong, Ben Milliken and Justin Atkins were all less than three pounds from joining the club – and at 32-plus-pounds apiece, that’s an achievement in itself.

Talkin’ ‘Bout My Generation – After one day, the top placing angler over the age of 50 is Mark Menendez in 22nd with 27-7. The oldest angler in the Top 10 is Ito, who will turn 38 next month.

Hemphill Gang II – Last week we were talking about Toledo Bend’s historic “Hemphill Gang” of the 1970s, which included noted pros such as Larry Nixon and Tommy Martin. This week we’re at the site of another breeding ground for pro greatness. A generation after Nixon and crew made their initial mark, in the 1990s pros including Takahiro Omori, Kelly Jordon and Dean Rojas moved to the Lake Fork area to hone their angling chops and eventually get ready for life on tour. Lakes have histories, they have cultures, and this week’s notch on the timeline will build upon that heritage.

Century Club Belt Madness – We almost certainly won’t topple the Century Belt record set at Falcon in 2012, when all of the top 12 achieved that feat, simply because only 10 anglers will get to compete all four days. Tenth place in that historic event was Casey Ashley with 113-3 and it took 120 pounds in that event to crack the top seven – that’s a 30-pound average. So, with 14 bags over 30, I’m saying there’s at least a chance we’ll match their top seven or ten, if not exceed them.

The Elias Record – When Paul Elias won at Falcon in 2008, he weighed in 132-8 over four days, an average of 33-02 per day. Right now, six anglers are at or above that mark. Leader Taku Ito “only” needs to average a little over 31 pounds a day to claim it for himself. It sounds easy from the removed distance of my computer, and years ago I said it would be less than likely, but lately I’ve learned not to doubt this crew when it comes to setting new standards.

Rollin’ on Twenties – Twenty pounds doesn’t buy what it used to. Former AOY Clark Wendlandt weighed exactly that amount today and he’s in 69th place.

Come and Take It – Texans fared comparatively poorly again today on their home state waters. Transplant Ben Milliken is their leader in 8th, and fellow transplant Chris Zaldain is in 47th. Amongst the natives, Keith Combs is on top in 12th. Including those three, five of eight are inside the cut, but the average placement for all of them is a surprisingly average 48th.

Smallest Fork Limit Today – Koby Krieger (88th) weighed five bass for 13-11.

Eyewear – Who has the best sunglasses: Chris Zaldain, Matt Robertson or Ben Milliken?

Easter Egg – Store this one somewhere in your cranium for a later date: Today John Cox told us that his 2024 boat will get shallower than his 2023 boat. While he didn’t have a great first day at Fork, at some point that factoid will be newsworthy.

Cut Weight Math – Last week the traditional “double the first day weight and add a pound” was off. The actual cut weight was very close to just doubling it. Today’s Top 50 cut weight is 21-11. If you double that, it comes to 43-6, which means that if you double it and add a pound ,you’re looking at 44-6 to fish on Saturday.

Double Digits – After the field failed to catch a single double-digit bass during last week’s Toledo Bend slamfest, I predicted in print that there’d be four this week. After today, it appears I severely underestimated – you should’ve bet the over.

Misery Loves Company – Which is worse: catching 30 pounds and not being in the Top 10 (that happened to four anglers today), or catching 17 pounds and not being in the top 80?

Fork Top 10s of the Past – The Elites have fished Fork every year since 2019, albeit during months other than March. Comparing cut weights across those events is a difficult task, because different field sizes meant that the cut was at a different place (e.g., 35th, 47th) each time. However, top tens are a better gauge of comparison. Throwing out the 2020 tournament, which was in the fall, the other three have had Day Two cuts at 43-04, 43-01 and 46-07. Our top ten could very reasonably be expected to blast by any and all of those numbers after an hour or two tomorrow.

More Valuable than Bitcoin – Taku stickers.

Some Things Never Change – It’s bizarre to hear an angler who weighed in over 20 pounds refer to the day as “a grind.”

Justin Hamner (5th, 33-5) — “I didn’t want to come off the water.”

Matty Wong (6th, 33-2) – “That was the best day of fishing I’ve ever had.”

Jason Christie (70th, 19-14) – “Good day on the Sabine. That’s terrible on Lake Fork.”

Gerald Swindle (97th, 8-0) – “I’ve got a heavyweight belt here, and I’ve got a belt with no britches on it.”

Bill Lowen (81st, 17-3) – “Once upon a time, 17 pounds was a good bag.”

And finally, from the “what planet are we living on?” files:  Kyoya Fujita (17th, 29-6) – “Very tough today for me.”