Elite Analysis – Day 1 St. Lawrence River

Do you get a discount on Century Belts if you buy them in bulk?

Asking for a friend.

With apologies to the Texans in the audience, it appears that these days everything is bigger in New York.

Last week in an Open on Erie, 114 of 173 anglers topped 20 pounds on Day 1. That’s nearly two-thirds of them. By comparison, today on the St. Lawrence, over 90 percent of the field (90 of 98) hit or exceeded that same mark. 

The real differentiator, however, is the number of bags in the 25-pound class. On Day 1 at Erie, there were four that weighed 25 pounds or more. Today there were a ridiculous 25 of them. It was almost painful to see anglers come to the stage with an otherwise-great 23 pounds and leave dejected, like someone had shot their dog.

And in a true apples-to-bowling-balls comparison, looking back at the famous 2008 Lone Star Shootout at Falcon – where the all-time four-day weight record was set – there were 48 bags of 25 pounds or more on Day 1, but “only” 80 of 20 or more. 

That was a tournament where I distinctly remember Trip Weldon instructing anglers not to weigh their biggest bass for the big fish award unless it clearly exceeded 10 pounds. 

There are likely no 10-pounders in this system.

It wasn’t necessarily easy at Falcon, but it’s far easier to amass a 25- or 30-pound bag on a lake loaded with sevens, eights, and nines. That ain’t the St. Lawrence. This is the land of fours and fives, and if you’re lucky, a six or two.

It was a tiring weigh-in just to watch, so I can’t imagine how the wave-addled anglers are feeling. Here’s what I took away from Day 1 of what promises to be a record-setting event:

What’s In a Name? – Many of us figured there would be two people with the same last name at or near the top of the leaderboard. We just assumed that name would be Johnston. Instead, Tucker Smith and Bryant Smith (no relation) are in first and second with 27-5 and 27-4, respectively.

Cut Weight Math – After Day 1, 50th place is 23-7, which projects to a two-day cut weight of 46-14. The most it has taken here in the past was 41-0, in 2022. Each of the past two events here has taken 40-14. There are 10 anglers a pound or less outside of the cut and an incredible 18 anglers a pound or less ahead of 50th. Expect quite a bit of movement, some relief, and more than a little disappointment tomorrow.

Fisher Anaya (9th, 26-1) – “I probably didn’t burn 2 gallons of gas all day today.” At times it looked like he was in an indoor swimming pool while others were crabbing in the Bering Sea. Perhaps more importantly, with 26-1, he opened up a substantial (albeit potentially temporary) lead in the Rookie of the Year Race on Caleb Hudson.

Century Belts – Right now we’re on track for 25 Century Belts this week, except for the fact that some anglers on pace may not get to fish a fourth day. The Century Belt smallmouth era began here in 2022 and continued through two more events, for a total of eight of them, with the most coming in 2022. There were four that year. It was the same year that Patrick Walters set the BASS record for four days of smallmouths with 105-0. Both of those numbers could and possibly should fall this week.

Dave Mercer – “If you’re wondering if you are seasick, you are seasick.”

Team Canada – All five Canadian pros are in the top 30, led by Evan Kung in 4th. Cory Johnston is in 4th, Gussy is in 25th, Cooper Gallant is in 26th, and Chris Johnston is in 30th

Surging – Three of four Surge Squad members caught 26 pounds or more and are inside the top 8. Paul Marks, the straggler and the lone member of the group to win this year, is in 29th with over 24 pounds.

Trey McKinney (6th, 26-8) — “There’s a fine line between dumb and stupid and we’re right in there.” He was fighting a smallmouth that would help him cull out a 4-pounder and bring him up to 25 pounds – amidst waves that made keeping his footing a challenge.

Seth Feider – “I’m kind of scared to see where I’ll be at the end of weigh-in.” He had just dropped 23 pounds on the scales and sat in fourth out of four. By the end of the show,w he’d dropped to 56th. Sometimes fear is justified.

Fashion Question – Just as you can buy a replica of Kobe’s Lower Merion jersey or Deion’s North Fort Myers tear-away, do you think someday kids will buy an Iaconelli Top Rod Bassmasters throwback?

Palaniuk’s Time Warp – “I feel like I’m stuck in 2013 weights and everyone else is catching 2026 weights.” Indeed, when BP won here in 2013, he averaged 22-3 a day. That daily weight would have been good for 66th today, edging out the 22-2 that Palaniuk actually caught.

G-g-g-giants – Alabama pros Kyle Welcher (11th, 25-11) and Steve Kennedy (39th, 23-13) tied for Phoenix Boats Big Bass with twin 6-15 smallmouths. Kennedy reported that it was his personal best brown bass. The prior one came from the same spot. “I had a 6-2 big fish in a tournament here 10, 15 or 20 years ago,” he said. He also caught a big largemouth today – one of the few weighed in – that ate a glide bait. The biggest smallmouth in Bassmaster history was Paul Mueller’s 7-13, caught on this system in 2020.

The Golden Ticket – The “win and you’re in” nature of this tournament means different things to different anglers. The guys on the bubble hope that if they can’t win it themselves, at least someone already qualified should win and push the Classic cut further down the AOY leaderboard. For anglers who have no chance of making the big show other than through the EQs, it’s all or nothing. Right now, the only members of the top 10 looking to take advantage of that would seem to be Evan Kung and Brad Whatley. Tucker Smith, David Mullins and Emil Wagner are all just inside or barely outside of the Classic cut. Everyone else is safely inside.

Cliff Pace (87th, 20-8) – “I feel like I spent the last 8 hours getting pressure washed.”

The Contrarian – As others looked forward to tomorrow’s more welcoming conditions, Wes Logan (16th, 25-6) seemed to hope for more of the same. “They really seemed to bite well when the wind blew,” he reported. 

Not Seen at Weigh-In – Lieutenant Dan, the Andrea Gail, Captain Jack Sparrow. Neither Leo DiCaprio nor Kate Winslet.

No One’s Walkup Music – The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald

It’s going to be a late night for the service crews. Here’s hoping they packed lots of extra everything.

What’s really crazy about today’s weights is that many of the anglers did it with the proverbial one arm tied behind their backs. They couldn’t run around. It took longer to get to their preferred spots. They couldn’t even fish some places at all. Tomorrow, with the cuffs off, we may see a couple of 30-pound bags.