Analyzing the 2024 Elite fisheries

The 2024 season breaks tradition and begins in Texas, not Florida and on the St. Johns River.

Change is coming to the 2024 Bassmaster Elite Series season with a uniquely challenging lineup of fisheries, all scheduled to create playing fields that test the mettle of bass fishing’s most elite anglers. 

What immediately stands out is where the season begins in February. For the first time in years, it begins in Texas, not Florida. There’s a lot to like about that change, as we might see record-breaking and big bass weights for two consecutive weeks. 

The usual Florida double-header happens in April, and there’s a summertime twofer in the lower South that includes a first-time visit in Alabama at Smith Lake, and a return to Wheeler Lake. The season ends with the much-anticipated Northern Swing in New York. 

Here’s a rundown of the fisheries with an analysis of what we might expect to see. 

Toledo Bend, Feb. 22-25

History: The Elite Series last visited the 185,000-acre impoundment on the borders of Texas and Louisiana in 2017 and 2014, with both events in May and April, respectively. Conversely, the St. Croix Bassmaster Opens were there during February in 2019 and 2023. Winning weights for the three-day competitions were 40-2 in 2019 and 77-14 last year. 

Analysis: If last year’s outcome is any indication of what’s to come, the potential for a Century Club winner is a possiblity. New Elite and 2023 Toledo Bend winner Ben Milliken scored a Day 1 limit of 29-8, with 20-pound weights extending to 17th place. Milliken ran away with the win, adding limits weighing 26-15 and 21-7 on Days 2 and 3 despite much tougher fishing. All three spawning phases were underway, with Milliken targeting gizzard shad pushing up on shallow points. A Carolina rig, inline swimbait and glidebait were his top lures. 

Lake Fork, Feb. 29-March 3

History: The Elites never visited a prime month for Toyota ShareLunker season at Lake Fork until now. An appropriate follow-up to the potential smash-fest at Toledo Bend will play out the next week in Texas at the lake where trophy bass fishery management began. 

Analysis: Lake Fork produced a remarkable 18 ShareLunker entries (largemouth weighing more than 10 pounds) during the tournament timeframe in 2022 and 2023. A planned drawdown for dam repairs was underway when the Elites last visited Lake Fork in 2022. Even so, Texas Parks and Wildlife biologists wisely conducted low-water habitat improvement projects to spark year-class recruitment when the level came back up. As of last November, the lake was over 90% full. Without a doubt, this derby could be one of the most anticipated of the season, if not in years. 

Harris Chain, April 11-14

History: Nearest to the tournament timeframe was the February 2022 Elite tournament won by Buddy Gross with a winning weight of 77-11. With the spawning cycle in full swing, Gross wisely chose to let the fish come to his area, a breakline bordered by deeper water used by the migrating bass to chase bait. 

Analysis: Unlike anywhere else, the spawning cycle in Florida lasts several or more months, depending on the severity of winter cold fronts occurring from January through late March. That’s also why multiple spawns can happen on the same lake. While it’s too soon to predict the winter weather factor, average daily weights in the 20-pound range are doable here.

St. Johns River, April 18-21

History: With exception of recent years, the Elites historically fished the St. Johns River during March. A late March 2014 Elite on the St. Johns yielded a winning weigh of 90-13, an indicator of what could play out in 2024. 

Analysis: As noted previously, how the winter played out in north Florida will dictate how much the spawning cycle factors into the tournament. The weather is more likely to be more stable by April, as compared to the previous February events, which should also eliminate the possibility of postponed competition days. 

Lake Murray, May 9-12

History: Drew Benton won the 2023 Elite in late April on Lake Murray with 87 pounds, while nine anglers weighed 80 pounds or more. The great catches weren’t limited to the top end, as 10th through 50th were separated by less than 6 pounds going into Semifinal Saturday. Benton began Championship Sunday 4-15 out of first and in 10th place, and he ultimately set a new mark for best bag of the tournament with 26-7. Benton’s strategy revolved around sight fishing for spawning bass. 

Analysis: Murray produced a winning weight of 61-3 in a May 2011 tournament where the early morning, low-light bite was crucial to success. The three-hour catch window collapsed as the sun heated up the clear water and the temperatures climbed into the 80s. Remnants of the blueback herring spawn could be in play, along with late-spawning largemouth. Runoff from spring rains could produce favorable dingy conditions in the Saluda River on the upper lake.

Wheeler Lake, June 13-16

History: The winning weight for a mid-June 2012 Elite on Wheeler Lake was 63-10. The northern Alabama section of the Tennessee River is renowned for its summertime ledge fishing, and that’s where the tournament was won. 

Analysis: Expect more of the same in 2024 with a new twist. The main river channel ledges will be crowded, even more so now with the advantages provided by forward-facing sonar. The outlier is the current produced by power generation. Ledge fishing is supreme when the current is moving as the bass relate to isolated bottom objects, while the fish scatter and suspend in the water column on slack current. 

Smith Lake, June 27-30

History: There will be no fishing history with this one. The Elites have never been to Smith Lake (nor the Opens) in late June. 

Analysis: Smith is a deep, clear, highland lake like none other encountered by the Elites and especially in summer. By then, largemouth, but mostly spotted bass, suspend over 50 feet of water at times. Searching for deep schools of bass will likely be in play. So will navigating through the summertime recreational boat traffic on the 21,000-acre lake that is the deepest in the state of Alabama.  

Lake Champlain, Aug. 8-11

History: Last year, Kyoya Fujita won with 86-12 while the Top 10 all had weights surpassing 80 pounds. Day 2 was postponed due to severe weather with the Top 10 fishing on Monday; wind hampered boat positioning and navigation throughout the tournament. 

Analysis: Which will it be for the win: largemouth, smallmouth or both? In 2023 it was all smallmouth as the anglers scoped the fish in deeper water, using drop shots to bring them in. In 2021 it was three-quarters smallmouth and the remainder largemouth. What makes smallmouth most attractive are the massive schools that gather over offshore reefs and other bottom irregularities. The strike zone is concentrated in a smaller area, and using the tools of the trade enable anglers to dial into the numbers and quality. And of course, the anglers look forward to the annual Northern Swing just for the world-class smallmouth fishing. 

St. Lawrence River, Aug. 15-18

History: Once again, the 2023 tournament played out not in the river but in eastern Lake Ontario, which produced the heaviest winning weight in Bassmaster history. Patrick Walters became the first Elite angler to earn Century Club honors for both largemouth and now smallmouth, amassing a winning weight of 105 pounds. The top four weighed more than 100 pounds: Walters, Chris Johnston, Kyoya Fujita and Taku Ito, while the remaining Top 10 anglers were in the mid-90s. 

Analysis: Forward-facing sonar leveled the playing field with drop shots ranking as the top lures for catching smallmouth from the rocky reefs and other near-shore areas offering bottom irregularities and protection from the wind. We can certainly expect more of the same in 2024.