The smallmouth waters of this Elite Series northern swing have been remarkably consistent, as you can see in the chart below which compares the Day 1 results from the St. Lawrence River, Lake Champlain and Lake St. Clair.
As a predictor of the Day 2/top 40 cut, doubling the Day 1 40th-place weight gives you a clue of varying accuracy. Usually, it’s a pound or two pounds less. But weather conditions make the cut weight a moving target from one fishery to the next. My guess for today’s cut weight would be 35 pounds, but that’s all it is, a semi-educated guess.
Notice also the average weight of all the bass brought to the scales on Day 1 in the last three tournaments. It’s remarkably consistent, but Lake St. Clair’s 3.53-pound average is best.
| Day 1 | St. Lawrence | Champlain | St. Clair |
| 1st place | 27-1 | 22-1 | 24-12 |
| 5th place | 24-2 | 19-13 | 21-11 |
| 10th place | 21-4 | 19-6 | 21-1 |
| 20th place | 19-6 | 18-6 | 19-12 |
| 30th place | 18-8 | 17-12 | 18-13 |
| 40th place | 17-8 | 17-2 | 18-1 |
| Ave. bass | 3.41 | 3.35 | 3.53 |
| Day 2 | St. Lawrence | Champlain | St. Clair |
| 40th place | 33-0 | 33-13 | ??-?? |