What will the cut-weight be?

This will be a make-or-break weigh-in for some Elite Series anglers. When the field is cut to the top 50 for Saturday's competition, it will mark the end of the 2018 season for several anglers who came into this event with a reasonable chance to qualify for the Toyota Angler of the Year Championship next month at Georgia's Lake Chatuge.

What will be the cut-weight today? I'm going to guess 39-3, based on history. Last year here 50th place on Day 1 was 18-0. The Day 2 50th place cut-weight was 34-13. So the formula was double 18-0, which is 36-0, and subtract 1 pounds, 3 ounces.

This year 50th place on Day 1 was 20-3. Double that and you get 40-6. Subtract 1 pound, 3 ounces and you have 39-3. Obviously, there's nothing scientific about this.

Whatever the cut-weight is, you can bet someone will make it and someone will miss it be a single ounce, if not in a tiebreaker. That seldom varies in any tournament dominated by smallmouth bass, where there's less variation between the weight of the fish than there is in a largemouth bass event.