Speculation on the AOY/Classic race

Baseball has the magic number, which shows how many wins a team needs to clinch a playoff spot. In fishing it’s harder to project at times, but here is an attempt to clear up some situations.

The projected Top 50 points cut after Tenkiller is somewhere in the region of 511 points. Tyler Rivet holds that spot going into the event with 455 points. That means the projected number is factoring in his average finish thus far into a points total, an expectation of a 45th place finish. Obviously, if all the bubble anglers and cut guys are in the Top 20 it’ll balloon that number.

With 511 being the expected point total for the 50th spot, it means the Top 35 in points are safe from falling outside the Top 50 in points and missing the AOY Championship (unless they zero in this event). The Classic cutline of 42nd place is expected to fall around 534, give or take a few.

There are a select few below 50th still in contention to make it to Lake St. Clair next week. Jesse Tacoronte (58th) seems to be the lowest with a chance to sneak into the Top 50. There is a gap from Tacoronte to Steve Kennedy (59th) of 15 points which pushes Kennedy on the outskirts. Tacoronte would need an 18th place finish or better to hit the 511 point total, but with 8 anglers ahead of him he would have to overcome their finishes as well with some help from anglers inside the cut.

On the flip side; you get 26 points for last place as long as you catch a bass (otherwise it’s zero). The trio of Paul Mueller, Skylar Hamilton and Cliff Prince need minimum points to clinch a spot to AOY next week. But being just above the Classic cutline, they’d need more to stay in contention for the Top 42 in points.