Bubble boys

The lack of drama in the Toyota Bassmaster Angler of the Year race is more than compensated for at the other end of this Sturgeon Bay measuring stick.

The lack of drama in the Toyota Bassmaster Angler of the Year race is more than compensated for at the other end of this Sturgeon Bay measuring stick. All the theatrics center on the final berths for the 2016 GEICO Bassmaster Classic from the AOY point standings. And it’s quite the spectacle.
The lack of drama in the Toyota Bassmaster Angler of the Year race is more than compensated for at the other end of this Sturgeon Bay measuring stick. All the theatrics center on the final berths for the 2016 GEICO Bassmaster Classic from the AOY point standings. And it’s quite the spectacle.
One minute you’re on solid ground...
One minute you’re on solid ground…
... the next minute you're free falling.
… the next minute you’re free falling.
Mike Iaconelli is the perfect example of how treacherous the footing can be around the 40th-place Classic cutoff mark. On Day 1, he came off the water with only four bass weighing only 11 pounds, 7 ounces Thursday, after experiencing a two-hour loss of fishing time due to mechanical problems.
Mike Iaconelli is the perfect example of how treacherous the footing can be around the 40th-place Classic cutoff mark. On Day 1, he came off the water with only four bass weighing only 11 pounds, 7 ounces Thursday, after experiencing a two-hour loss of fishing time due to mechanical problems.
Iaconelli entered the tournament 45th in AOY points, so anything less than a stellar day would drop him even lower, right? As Iaconelli boated to the service yard for further work on a balky oil pressure system, he got a text message from his wife, Becky, telling him that he was 27th in the tournament and had moved up to 38th in the unofficial AOY standings.
Iaconelli entered the tournament 45th in AOY points, so anything less than a stellar day would drop him even lower, right? As Iaconelli boated to the service yard for further work on a balky oil pressure system, he got a text message from his wife, Becky, telling him that he was 27th in the tournament and had moved up to 38th in the unofficial AOY standings.
“I’m like, ‘That’s not possible. Are you sure?’” Iaconelli recalled.
“I’m like, ‘That’s not possible. Are you sure?’” Iaconelli recalled.
So Iaconelli goes out trouble free on Friday, catches a nice 16-10 limit and moves up to 14th in the tournament standings, but remains 38th in the AOY standings -– still on the bubble.
So Iaconelli goes out trouble free on Friday, catches a nice 16-10 limit and moves up to 14th in the tournament standings, but remains 38th in the AOY standings -– still on the bubble.
His reaction from the previous day would be appropriate here too: That’s not possible. Are you sure?
His reaction from the previous day would be appropriate here too: That’s not possible. Are you sure?
Anything is possible surrounding these final Classic berths; the bumpy ride on the water is just as bumpy in the standings.
Anything is possible surrounding these final Classic berths; the bumpy ride on the water is just as bumpy in the standings.
Just not quite as wet.
Just not quite as wet.
Until the AOY points become official – on Sunday at the Day 3 weigh-in – the bubble boys are going to feel like they’re walking the edge of a cliff, in the dark.
Until the AOY points become official – on Sunday at the Day 3 weigh-in – the bubble boys are going to feel like they’re walking the edge of a cliff, in the dark.
“Fortunately, but unfortunately, that seems to be the way my season is going,” said Jonathon VanDam, who charged all the way from 52nd place after two days at Lake Havasu to make the Top 12 on the final day there.
“Fortunately, but unfortunately, that seems to be the way my season is going,” said Jonathon VanDam, who charged all the way from 52nd place after two days at Lake Havasu to make the Top 12 on the final day there.
He made a similar rescue of his season at Lake St. Clair three weeks ago just to qualify for the AOY Championship.
He made a similar rescue of his season at Lake St. Clair three weeks ago just to qualify for the AOY Championship.
VanDam will have to successfully navigate another cliffhanger to make the Classic.
VanDam will have to successfully navigate another cliffhanger to make the Classic.
He’s 46th in AOY points, unofficially, going into the final day.
He’s 46th in AOY points, unofficially, going into the final day.
He likely needs to jump up 18 to 20 places for a chance to go to Tulsa.
He likely needs to jump up 18 to 20 places for a chance to go to Tulsa.
That translates into needing a 20-pound sack or better in the final, with some help from those above him.
That translates into needing a 20-pound sack or better in the final, with some help from those above him.
Todd Faircloth started this event in 40th and currently sits in 29th of the AOY points standings.
Todd Faircloth started this event in 40th and currently sits in 29th of the AOY points standings.
He’s done well enough to be sitting 4th place in the tournament with 33 pounds, 12 ounces.
He’s done well enough to be sitting 4th place in the tournament with 33 pounds, 12 ounces.
At this point, Faircloth is basically in the Classic. He would have to drop about 18 or 19 places in order for him to be back on the bubble.
At this point, Faircloth is basically in the Classic. He would have to drop about 18 or 19 places in order for him to be back on the bubble.
And that’s not likely. If catch rates stay the same for the final day, a 0 on Day 3 by Faircloth would put him in the mid to lower 20s of the event standings, which would still be high enough for him to qualify.
And that’s not likely. If catch rates stay the same for the final day, a 0 on Day 3 by Faircloth would put him in the mid to lower 20s of the event standings, which would still be high enough for him to qualify.
31st position goes to Josh Bertrand at 495 points. Bertrand came into the event at 37th in point standings and needed a 28th place finish to make it to the Classic.
31st position goes to Josh Bertrand at 495 points. Bertrand came into the event at 37th in point standings and needed a 28th place finish to make it to the Classic.
He’s done that and then some. He’s currently in 13th place in the event standings and likely only needs a small limit to ensure a trip to Tulsa.
He’s done that and then some. He’s currently in 13th place in the event standings and likely only needs a small limit to ensure a trip to Tulsa.
36th position is Marty Robinson with 482 points. Robinson came into the event needing a 28th place finish to make the Classic and to date he is right on pace.
36th position is Marty Robinson with 482 points. Robinson came into the event needing a 28th place finish to make the Classic and to date he is right on pace.
He currently sits in 26th place and has a small cushion.
He currently sits in 26th place and has a small cushion.
His luck seems to be improving each day. He caught 9 pounds on Day 1 and 11 on Day 2.
His luck seems to be improving each day. He caught 9 pounds on Day 1 and 11 on Day 2.
If he holds steady, and barring any incredible heroics in the field below him, Robinson should be in place to earn his third Classic berth.
If he holds steady, and barring any incredible heroics in the field below him, Robinson should be in place to earn his third Classic berth.
36th position is Brandon Lester at 481 points. Lester came into the event needing a 44th place finish to be in Classic contention.
36th position is Brandon Lester at 481 points. Lester came into the event needing a 44th place finish to be in Classic contention.
He’s currently in 43rd, but he has very little breathing room. The standings in that part of the event are separated by ounces and Lester has to be watching those behind him. He has very little room for many anglers to pass him in the standings.
He’s currently in 43rd, but he has very little breathing room. The standings in that part of the event are separated by ounces and Lester has to be watching those behind him. He has very little room for many anglers to pass him in the standings.
The tightest bunch of anglers is right at the 40th-place cutoff mark in the AOY standings. From 38th-place Mark Davis to 43rd-place Mark Menendez, six guys are separated by only five points.
The tightest bunch of anglers is right at the 40th-place cutoff mark in the AOY standings. From 38th-place Mark Davis to 43rd-place Mark Menendez, six guys are separated by only five points.
The list looks like this: 38th position Davis – 476 points. From Davis’ standpoint it would be hard to fall any further. He feels like he’s had a terrible event and actually felt like he had fallen out after catching only two fish on Day 2.
The list looks like this: 38th position Davis – 476 points. From Davis’ standpoint it would be hard to fall any further. He feels like he’s had a terrible event and actually felt like he had fallen out after catching only two fish on Day 2.
Davis needs to improve to feel good about his chances, while hoping those around him are the ones stumbling. A 13- to 15-pound stringer would give him that warm and fuzzy feeling.
Davis needs to improve to feel good about his chances, while hoping those around him are the ones stumbling. A 13- to 15-pound stringer would give him that warm and fuzzy feeling.
In 39th position is Billy McCaghren – 475 points. McCaghren had his stumble on Day 1, failing to catch a limit and dropping him in the neighborhood he currently is in. A limit on Day 2 helped keep him in the Classic. But in order to stay there he needs that limit on the final day and it needs to be in double digits.
In 39th position is Billy McCaghren – 475 points. McCaghren had his stumble on Day 1, failing to catch a limit and dropping him in the neighborhood he currently is in. A limit on Day 2 helped keep him in the Classic. But in order to stay there he needs that limit on the final day and it needs to be in double digits.
40th position, Gerald Swindle – 475 points. There’s been nothing stellar about Swindle’s performance in this event. But that goes for the entire field.
40th position, Gerald Swindle – 475 points. There’s been nothing stellar about Swindle’s performance in this event. But that goes for the entire field.
Still Swindle has been able to hang right on the edge.
Still Swindle has been able to hang right on the edge.
He’s currently the last man in on the AOY standings. But he knows that is shaky ground.
He’s currently the last man in on the AOY standings. But he knows that is shaky ground.
He sits in 28th place in the event standings with 20 pounds, 15 ounces. If every one continues to struggle, he likely needs a 12- to 15-pound stringer to breathe easy.
He sits in 28th place in the event standings with 20 pounds, 15 ounces. If every one continues to struggle, he likely needs a 12- to 15-pound stringer to breathe easy.
41st position is Ish Monroe – 474 points. Ish Monroe has done everything right so far, but his future isn’t completely in his hands. Many folks believed there was no way he could make the Classic coming into the AOY Championship without a win here.
41st position is Ish Monroe – 474 points. Ish Monroe has done everything right so far, but his future isn’t completely in his hands. Many folks believed there was no way he could make the Classic coming into the AOY Championship without a win here.
He’s just one spot away from making the Classic by sitting in 7th place here. While the points to make it has fallen from 480 to 475 after two days, many believe it will eventually return to 480.
He’s just one spot away from making the Classic by sitting in 7th place here. While the points to make it has fallen from 480 to 475 after two days, many believe it will eventually return to 480.
If that’s the case, Monroe needs to finish in the top two of this event or get a lot of help from those underneath him.
If that’s the case, Monroe needs to finish in the top two of this event or get a lot of help from those underneath him.
Currently he is about 8 pounds off the pace of missing that second place mark. But he’s been consistent all week and consistency counts in events like these.
Currently he is about 8 pounds off the pace of missing that second place mark. But he’s been consistent all week and consistency counts in events like these.
42nd position goes to Brandon Card at 472 points. If Card fails to make the Classic he will look back to Day 1 when he failed to catch a keeper.
42nd position goes to Brandon Card at 472 points. If Card fails to make the Classic he will look back to Day 1 when he failed to catch a keeper.
But he bounced back on Day 2 with a 13-13 stringer that put him a position to get back into the Classic mix. He likely needs to catch that and more on Day 3 to move into the Classic.
But he bounced back on Day 2 with a 13-13 stringer that put him a position to get back into the Classic mix. He likely needs to catch that and more on Day 3 to move into the Classic.
43rd position is Mark Menendez – 471 points. Like Ish Monroe, Menendez came into this event with a mountain to climb. And like Monroe he’s scaling toward the top at a rapid pace.
43rd position is Mark Menendez – 471 points. Like Ish Monroe, Menendez came into this event with a mountain to climb. And like Monroe he’s scaling toward the top at a rapid pace.
He sits in 11th in the event with 28-15 and has been extremely consistent, but he will likely need to add to his two-day average of 14 pounds and change and move into the top two or three anglers to breathe easily.
He sits in 11th in the event with 28-15 and has been extremely consistent, but he will likely need to add to his two-day average of 14 pounds and change and move into the top two or three anglers to breathe easily.
45th position is Brandon Coulter with 463 points. Coulter came into this event in 39th in the AOY standings needing a 25th place finish to get into Classic contention.
45th position is Brandon Coulter with 463 points. Coulter came into this event in 39th in the AOY standings needing a 25th place finish to get into Classic contention.
At this point, he’s missed the mark considerably. He currently sits in 42nd in the event standings, with a two-day total of 13-15.
At this point, he’s missed the mark considerably. He currently sits in 42nd in the event standings, with a two-day total of 13-15.
He’s yet to catch a limit, but his Day 2 weight does give him some encouragement. He only caught one fish, but it weighed 5 pounds, 4 ounces.
He’s yet to catch a limit, but his Day 2 weight does give him some encouragement. He only caught one fish, but it weighed 5 pounds, 4 ounces.
He’s going to need more of those on Day 3 to catch enough to jump him into the Classic.
He’s going to need more of those on Day 3 to catch enough to jump him into the Classic.
47th position is Scott Rook at 460 points. Rook has to be the most nervous of the entire field. He came into the event at 38th in AOY points, needing a 25th place finish for a lock into the Classic.
47th position is Scott Rook at 460 points. Rook has to be the most nervous of the entire field. He came into the event at 38th in AOY points, needing a 25th place finish for a lock into the Classic.
However, Rook has struggled. He’s in 45th in the event standings at the moment with a total of 12 pounds, 1 ounce. He’s yet to catch a limit in the event.
However, Rook has struggled. He’s in 45th in the event standings at the moment with a total of 12 pounds, 1 ounce. He’s yet to catch a limit in the event.
It’s likely he will need to catch somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 pounds on the final day to have a chance to consider being in the Classic.
It’s likely he will need to catch somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 pounds on the final day to have a chance to consider being in the Classic.
In 48th position is Jeff Kriet. Kriet came into the event in the position he sits in (48th) needing a 6th place or better to get into Classic contention.
In 48th position is Jeff Kriet. Kriet came into the event in the position he sits in (48th) needing a 6th place or better to get into Classic contention.
He slid near the brink of Classic qualification at the last event, from 35th place in the AOY standings to his current position, after an 84th place finish at St. Clair.
He slid near the brink of Classic qualification at the last event, from 35th place in the AOY standings to his current position, after an 84th place finish at St. Clair.
The Oklahoma native has qualified for eight Classics, but has yet to make one in his home state.
The Oklahoma native has qualified for eight Classics, but has yet to make one in his home state.
His only chance to make it to Tulsa this year is to produce one of the largest stringers of the event, but it’s a mark he thinks is possible.
His only chance to make it to Tulsa this year is to produce one of the largest stringers of the event, but it’s a mark he thinks is possible.
There are way too many scenarios possible to even determine likely odds for these guys making the Classic because the volatility in the standings extends both above and below them.
There are way too many scenarios possible to even determine likely odds for these guys making the Classic because the volatility in the standings extends both above and below them.
Just keep this in mind: If Mike Iaconelli can catch only 11-7 one day and move up in the unofficial AOY standings, then catch 16-10 the next day and not move at all, anything can happen on Sunday when these final Classic berths are officially determined.
Just keep this in mind: If Mike Iaconelli can catch only 11-7 one day and move up in the unofficial AOY standings, then catch 16-10 the next day and not move at all, anything can happen on Sunday when these final Classic berths are officially determined.