Fantasy: Not quite desperation, but close

With the season sliding toward its eventual end, those of us who need to make a move in Bassmaster Fantasy Fishing will have to take some risks just like the anglers will.

After an eight-week break from Elite Series competition, the Elite field will head to smallmouth country at the end of July, looking for big brown bass and — for some — a chance to turn their seasons around. There are still three regular-season events left, so there’s still room for major shuffling in the standings.

This is a tournament where everybody should catch fish or else be threatened with the loss of their tour card. When the Elites were in Waddington in 2013, 17 pounds a day over the first two days didn’t get you paid, and 15 pounds a day was good for only 80th place. I don’t believe that anyone will match winner Brandon Palaniuk’s winning weight of 88-12, largely because Lake Ontario is off limits. If anything, that restriction will pack the weights even closer together. Every ounce is going to be critical.

With the season sliding toward its eventual end, those of us who need to make a move in Bassmaster Fantasy Fishing will have to take some risks just like the anglers will. After a disastrous set of picks at Kentucky Lake, I slid back to somewhere in the 80th percentile. Accordingly, I’m going to bet on those with something to prove — and a track record of being able to do it.

Bucket A: DeFoe

Popular Pick: Aaron Martens

It’s tough to go against Aaron Martens on a venue where drop shotting is likely to play a major role, and unlike the two guys ahead of him in the AOY race, he’s won the title before. But at nearly 30 percent ownership at the time of this writing, picking him won’t help me make a move.

Almost Picked: Edwin Evers

I have no idea if Edwin Evers’ Kentucky Lake momentum will be sapped by an eight-week layoff, and he’s a proven stud on the smallmouth factories, so it’s tough to let Evers slide, especially since he finished 25th here last time.

My Pick: Ott DeFoe

After a dismal start to the season at the Sabine and Guntersville, the Talented Mr. DeFoe has slid up to 15th place in the AOY standings. With a low ownership percentage, a penchant for smallmouth, exceptional versatility and a third-place finish here in 2013, expect him to excel.

Bucket B: Schultz

Popular Pick: Mike Iaconelli

Mike Iaconelli and Northern smallmouth present an obvious synergy not lost on many fans, but he finished 63rd here last time. He’s a threat from coast to coast, but his high ownership percentage makes him a tough sell for someone like me who needs to make up ground.

Almost Picked: Jonathon VanDam

Jonathon VanDam is currently a Classic bubble boy after missing the big show last year for the first time since 2012. He finished second here to Palaniuk in 2013 and was raised on a diet of brown fish.

My Pick: Bernie Schultz

The Florida veteran’s success with smallmouth from faraway latitudes is well-documented, yet few Fantasy Fishing players seem prepared to bet on Bernie Schultz. Take the risk and hope he turns in a characteristic performance. Three of his last four Elite Series Top 12s have been in smallmouth territory, and another one could help him get to his ninth Classic appearance and first since 2009.

Bucket C: Bertrand

Popular Pick: Brandon Palaniuk

No surprise that Wonder is taking in huge swaths of Fantasy Fishing voters, but the waters Palaniuk fished last time around will be off limits. That doesn’t mean he won’t do well, but even if he does, it’s not the type of pick that’ll separate you from the pack.

Almost Picked: Brett Hite

Brett Hite whacked ’em at Hartwell, Guntersville and Kentucky Lake, but it has nevertheless been an under-the-radar season for the Arizona pro, largely because it hasn’t included a win or two like last year’s campaign.

My Pick: Josh Bertrand

The young Arizona pro earned his last Sunday appearance here in 2013. He’s had two bombs and three good showings this season, but as we move into the drop shot portion of the campaign (is that roughly equivalent to the talent portion of Miss America?), expect him to have at least one high finish — and I’m betting that this will be the one.

Bucket D: Faircloth

Popular Pick: Casey Ashley

Classic winner Casey Ashley is gathering large numbers of votes, despite the fact that he’s not known primarily as a smallmouth guru. Also, he finished 79th here in 2013.

Almost Picked: Jared Lintner

Jared Lintner’s five finishes this year all have a different number at the front of them, and four of them are on the wrong side of 50, yet he’s shown the ability to go on hot streaks over the course of the year, as he did last year when he strung together 13th-, 18th-, 12th- and 11th-place finishes. He finished 32nd here in 2013, and if he wants to get back to the Classic in 2015, he’ll have to finish there or better to position himself for that to happen.

My Pick: Todd Faircloth

Despite a comparatively high ownership percentage, I consider Todd Faircloth a value pick any time he appears in the next-to-last bucket. He’s currently in 76th in the AOY race, in genuine danger of missing the Classic for the first time since 2006. With a proven track record on smallmouth (despite a 59th-place finish here in 2013), I expect him to at least make a run at keeping his streak alive.

Bucket E: Hawk

Popular Pick: Paul Mueller

Rookie Paul Mueller has found the Elite Series to be an unforgiving environment, with only one finish better than 50th place. Lots of fans are betting on his Northern smallmouth expertise to come into play as he tries to show that he can compete week in, week out at this level.

Almost Picked: Chad Pipkens

Chad Pipkens finished 10th here last time, with three Top 12s (one Elite, two Opens) since then, all north of the Mason-Dixon line. Two of them were on the Great Lakes, including a win. This season has been a disaster, though, as he’s yet to better the 41st-place finish he earned in February’s Hartwell Classic.

My Pick: Kevin Hawk

Kevin Hawk may be looking forward to this one more than anyone else in the field. The former Forrest Wood Cup winner struggled on his new home lake of Guntersville earlier this season, but he finished ninth here in 2013. He hasn’t earned a check in Elite Series competition yet this year. If he’s going to turn the season around and ensure a spot in the 2016 Elite Series, it’s likely to happen on a venue that features quality fish in deep, clear water.