I spent the first day of the 2008 Bassmaster Classic at Lake Hartwell in Kelly Jordon’s boat. I don’t remember much of it because my eyeballs iced up and I couldn’t see 5 feet in front of me. If memory serves me correctly, it didn’t get above 37 or 38 degrees that day, and coupled with a nonstop and occasionally heavy rain, it made it just delightful to sit and watch someone else fish. My feet thawed out the following June.
I thought that would be the coldest day I’d ever spend in a bass boat. Then came the Grand Lake Classic of 2013. My map gave me no clue that Tulsa is actually in Alaska, but that’s what it felt like. It’s never a good day to be a bass blogger when they have to de-ice the boat ramp. Fortunately my boat driver brought a little propane heater on the water, which kept my blogging fingers fairly useful.
The Classic may be the toughest tournament of the year for Fantasy Fishing. Unlike regular season events, when you can usually rule out 10 or 20 guys as dead weight for one reason or another, here they’ve all come to play and they’ve shown that they can either win big or be consistently near the top of the heap.
Also, there are different incentives at play — many anglers will take risks they wouldn’t try during a “normal” tournament in order to come in first, which pays much, much more than second.
Furthermore, the spectator traffic is exponentially heavier, so anglers whom you’d normally expect to dominate may get taken out of the hunt by an overzealous flotilla. Therefore, you try to develop little rules to guide you — aphorisms along the lines of “never play cards with a guy who has the first name as a city.”
Unfortunately, the rules don’t seem to work anymore. My No. 1 rule for cold weather tournaments used to be “always bet on the fat guy.” You see, fat guys have that extra layer that prevents them from feeling the cold when it gets nasty outside. Additionally, the biscuits-and-gravy crew tend to move slowly and be particularly good with a jig, two qualities that are often useful when the water temps are frigid.
With the introduction of all sorts of high-tech clothing, anglers no longer feel the effects of wintry weather as much as they once did. Furthermore, it seems that about half the guys on tour are regularly pumping iron and downing protein shakes. There are simply fewer fat dudes out there than there used to be, and the skinny ones are so physically fit that the cold doesn’t bother them like it did back in the day.
In the spirit of this new age, my five picks are going to all run afoul of my previous “iron-clad” Fantasy Fishing rules:
Bucket A
Rule to Be Broken: Don’t Hit on the Bridesmaid
My Pick: Aaron Martens
Almost Picked: Todd Faircloth
There are guys who are always in the hunt, and then there are true closers, anglers who shut the door when opportunity presents itself. Both Martens and Faircloth have shown that they can dominate in Bassmaster competition with six and four wins, respectively. They’ve also fished 15 and 12 Classics, without a win to show for it. Faircloth finished 25th at the last Hartwell Classic. Martens finished ninth — not one of his quartet of runner-ups. That might lead you to say that he can’t close, but if he keeps his head screwed on straight and doesn’t forget a box of needed crankbaits or some other unforced error, this is his type of tournament to win. Expect something from his oddball list of discontinued garage baits to make a showing — and an impact.
Bucket B
Rule to Be Broken: Don’t Pick the Hometown Guy
My Pick: Casey Ashley
Almost Picked: Randall Tharp
Much has been made of the fact that Boyd Duckett and Randy Howell are the only anglers to have won Classics in the state where they reside. Indeed, the added pressure to win at home can be tough. Not only do you typically have an increased number of interviews and appearances during the wind-up to the tournament, but as you fish you know that you’re handing over every little secret spot you’ve ever found to the locals. If you win, it’s worth it. If you don’t, you’ve just spilled all of your candy in the movie theater lobby.
Ashley is going to be surrounded by spectators like never before, but he’s shown that he can win near home, emerging victorious during the 2011 Bassmaster Elite Series event on Lake Murray, and then again on Hartwell during the March 2014 FLW Tour event there. He is going to do well; the only question is how well.
Despite the fact that lots of players will pick him, there are lots of fan favorites in this bucket like Jason Christie, Chris Lane, Brandon Palaniuk and Gerald Swindle, so it won’t be quite the bandwagon pick as it would be in a larger field. This tournament may not seem to be directly in Tharp’s wheelhouse because it’s unlikely to be a flipping derby and there’s no grass. But he’s a certified winner, with an FLW Championship to his name as well as a runner-up finish. Watching him closely at the Classic last year, I saw that no amount of pressure or misfortune is going to get to him, and he finished 13th in last year’s FLW Tour event on Hartwell.
Bucket C
Rule to Be Broken: Don’t Pick the Skinny Water Expert
My Pick: Bill Lowen
Almost Picked: Cliff Crochet
It’s tough to win a late winter/early spring tournament up shallow. Even if there’s a pile of bass in the skinny water, one little cold snap and the little green boogers go scurrying back to deeper areas. Additionally, the heavy boat traffic tends to muddy up shallow areas. You may not have a single spectator, but when the leader’s followers go by, they mess up your water. When Denny Brauer won in 1998, he combated this by finding an area behind a shallow bar, where other boats could not go without idling, but there’s no guarantee anyone else will be able to do the same.
If anyone can, it’ll be Lowen, who’s made a career out of fishing ankle-deep when everyone else is jigging spoons or videogaming drop shots in 60 feet of water. The rapidly maturing Crochet can do many things beyond the frogging technique for which he’s best known, and he’s unlikely to have a big following on Day 1. Besides, he’d likely deliver the greatest champion’s speech in Classic history; you’ve got to root for that. Also, he’s likely to be picked by a much lower percentage of players than favorites like Mike Iaconelli, Mike McClelland or Edwin Evers, so if he does well, you’ll gain some valuable distance from the rest of the field.
Bucket D
Rule to Be Broken: Don’t Pick the Sentimental Favorite
My Pick: Kevin Short
Almost Picked: Paul Mueller
Normally it’s not a good idea to pick someone for sentimental reasons, but both Short and Mueller have shown that they’re closers. After a tornado demolished his home last year, Short missed a tournament and then fished like a man possessed the rest of the season to make it here. I’m sure he would’ve liked even more tournaments on the schedule to keep that momentum going. He’s a closer, with five Bassmaster wins to his credit, and while he pulled off a middling (22nd place) finish at the 2008 Hartwell Classic, this pond lends itself to many things he’s good at, including throwing a jig and jerkbait, as well as cranking shallow up the river.
Mueller, who came within a pound of being the second angler to win the Classic by qualifying through the B.A.S.S. Nation, seems low-key, but now that he’s on the radar, the Classic experience may be a little busier for him. Had I not been set on breaking rules, I likely would’ve picked Ott DeFoe or Brian Snowden, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either won, but at this point a Short victory would make for a better story.
Bucket E
Rule to Be Broken: Don’t Pick a Classic Rookie
My Pick: Shin Fukae
Almost Picked: David Kilgore
As every veteran pro will tell you, the Classic’s demands are unlike those at any other tournament. You’re shuffled around from event to event, forced to dress up in a coat and tie, and scheduled down to the last minute, when all you want to be doing is working on tackle and thinking about the next day. Accordingly, even if a rookie has his game together, there’s an ankle weight pulling him down a bit.
The last rookie to win the Classic was Boyd Duckett in 2007, and before that it was David Fritts in 1993. Normally, we don’t know much about the Classic first-timers, but this year this bucket is stacked, with the likes of Jacob Wheeler — winner of the BFL All-American and the Forrest Wood Cup — filling out its ranks. Even B.A.S.S. Nation anglers like Coby Carden and Jeff Lugar have been to the big dance before.
Kilgore has proven himself to be a consistent winner, a latter-day Jeff Coble, able to win at the Tour level but choosing not to go there full-time. He performed admirably at last year’s home state Classic, finishing eighth.
Still, my pick has to be Fukae, who has substantial experience with winning, and also at Hartwell, where he’s finished 45th, 21st and 58th in FLW competition. Not lights out, but that’s a lot of time on the water. More importantly, he’s a proven winner. While you may think of him as a finesse-only angler, unable to bring in the big weights necessary to be competitive in slugfests, remember that his Bassmaster Open win came on Champlain, and while his first FLW win was on Beaver Lake, the next two were on Okeechobee and Champlain. Because of his perceived English language deficit, he may not have many followers on tournament day (except, almost certainly, a Japanese camera crew or two), and that will work to his advantage.