Predictable Pundits?

By Pete Robbins

Now that B.A.S.S. has released the 2012 Elite Series schedule, it’s time to start the wholly unrewarding and generally fruitless process of predicting how the season will play out. While I can’t tell you what’s going to happen, I can provide some certainty when I say that as the season progresses you’ll likely see some or all of the following pre-tournament analysis from the supposed experts (I’m not an expert in anything, but that doesn’t mean I won’t write one or more of the following gems):

Bassmaster Classic, Red River, La. Feb. 24-26

There could be more foggy starts like here in the 2009 Classic won by Skeet Reese, who was a bit miffed no one had picked him pre-tournament. The picture should clear up, especially since recent history shows bass experts it’s easier to get the winner right. Who will win?The pundits say … 

“It’s hard not to choose KVD here. I mean, he’s never won a B.A.S.S. event on the Red River but that probably just makes him mad at the place, and you don’t want to get Superman mad. At the same time, he feels at home in the state of Louisiana, having won two Classics here already, and he’s the best at getting up for big events.”

St. Johns River, Fla., March 15-18

Easy Edwin Evers might be a good choice to repeat. He used a push pole and bush trimmer to find some fish last season, but don’t expect him to haul in another 8-pound, 13-ounce game-changer. Who will win? The pundits say … 

“They said KVD couldn’t win in Florida, but he proved us all wrong in 2008 when he won an Elite Series event on Kissimmee. He showed that wasn’t a fluke last year, when he finished fourth at the Harris Chain and 11^th on the St. Johns. Top 12s are good … for most anglers … but they just make KVD mad. Look for him to get even by winning this event fishing for post-spawn fish while others look for bedding bass.”

Lake Okeechobee, Fla., March 22-25

Home boys Chris and Bobby Lane would be good bets as they finished 1-2 in the 2010 Southern Open on the Big O, one of the bodies of water they cut their teeth on. But who will the light shine on? The pundits say … 

 “Okeechobee is one of the storied lakes in the history of bass fishing, but none of KVD’s 20 BASS wins come from the big Florida bowl. His resume will be seen as suspect by some if he can’t add a win here before he retires. He finished 35^th here in 1991, and 53^rd in 2003, earning $1,550 and $2,100, respectively. KVD can afford to light his fireplace with paltry checks like that. It’ll take six figures to capture his interest, and believe me, when he gets mad, that’s when he really gets interested.”

Bull Shoals Lake, Ark. April 19-22

On oxygen full-time, 74-year-old Dee Thomas, who brought flippin’ into the vernacular, won’t be able to defend his 1975 title on Bull Shoals. His protégée, Gary Klein, who won on the Arkansas impound in 1988, has a chance, but the experts have other things in mind. Who will win?The pundits say … 

 “KVD reported in his Bassmaster.com blog that the VanDam family used to vacation at Bull Shoals when he was a kid. Do you think that family really ever relaxes? I’m sure they spent hundreds of hours planting brushpiles and other underwater structure. The rest of the field may look for the bass up on the bank, but look for Kevin to remember some limbs he tied together in 1983 and seine 100 pounds of confused Ozarks bass into the boat for the victory.”

Douglas Lake, Tenn., May 3-6

Local Bobby Douglas took an Open title on the trying mountain lake in June as homies swept the top three. A number of Elites fared fairly well, like rookie sensation Ott DeFoe, who is also from Tennessee, but others found the home-field advantage simply too much. DeFoe is a solid pick, but are you feeling a trend here yet? Who will win? The pundits say … 

“The last time the tour came to Douglas was the 2001 Megabucks event, won by Rick Clunn. Kevin VanDam finished 65^th, behind 43 guys who don’t even fish the Elite Series. Do you think that makes him mad? You’re damn skippy it does. Do you know that he’s only won one B.A.S.S. event in Tennessee? This one could be a slaughter.”

Toledo Bend Reservoir, La. June 7-10

B.A.S.S. heads back on the Bayou where Dean Rojas flexed his muscles and edged G-Man by an ounce and David Walker by 13 ounces, but don’t expect a repeat as the event is two months later than last year. Who will win? Who else? The pundits say … 

“This is likely to be the first exclusively post-spawn event of the 2012 season and who’s better when it comes to getting out on offshore ledges and humps and cranking a big Series Five crankbait than Kevin VanDam? In three BASS events on the big Texas / Louisiana lake, he’s finished 22^nd, 37^th and 33^rd, always in the money but never in contention to win. But with a new time of year on the schedule and a five-tournament winning streak in jeopardy, he’ll have no choice but to win.”

Mississippi River, Wis., June 21-24

Could Rick Clunn get another B.A.S.S. win out of La Crosse, like he did in 1983, or will river specialist Kevin Short again solve the Mississippi, like he did in 2009 out of Fort Madision, Iowa?  KVD actually had a zero on Day Three in the latest Elite event on the Mississippi. Who’s going to be brushing his hair down for a trophy photo? The pundits say … 

“Do you know why KVD will win this one going away? Smallmouths. Or largemouths. Gotta hedge our bets, although I’m 99.44 percent certain that spotted bass won’t come into play. He’s the best at catching either of those other two, and he’s a northerner, so this one should be right in his wheelhouse.”

Mystery Lake,  June 28-July 1, 2012

One can only fathom that this body of water will be within driving range of the previous event since it’s one of those back-to-backs. Other than that, it’s anybody’s guess, or maybe not. Who has the knowing grin?The pundits say … 

 “Do you really think anything is a mystery to KVD at this point? Go ahead and ask him: Why is the sky blue? How does string theory work? How would you solve the unemployment crisis? He knows all the answers and all you do is risk making him mad. He figured out where the mystery tournament would be held before he even knew there would be a mystery tournament and he sunk 12 brushpiles there in 1997 in a 6-hour break between sponsor appearances. It’ll be a tight battle, but he’ll eke out the win by a few ounces.”

Oneida Lake, N.Y., August 23-26

Chad Griffin won the last time an Elite event was here. This year the event is being held in conjunction with the New York State Fair, and the Toyota Tundra Bassmaster Angler of the Year will be decided. We can’t stop now. Who gets the high fives?The pundits say … 

“By this point in the season, the fact that he only has eight wins (the Classic plus seven Elite Series tournaments) probably has KVD steaming mad. He’s seen the likes of Tommy Biffle, Dean Rojas and Chad Griffin win here before, while his mantle has exactly zero trophies with the word ‘Oneida’ on it. That has to make him not just mad, but almost homicidal. Look for him to win this one going away, catching enough fish the first two days to stay in bed on days three and four and still win.”