GUNTERSVILLE, Ala. — Chris Lane didn't make the cut for Day 3 at the Diet Mountain Dew Bassmaster Elite at Lake Guntersville. But he lives on this lake, and he has fished it five days this week. So Lane can make as good an educated guess as anyone in predicting how this four-day event will end Sunday.
"This tournament will go down to the last hour," Lane said.
Mike Iaconelli, who stayed in first place for the third day, agreed. Late has been great for several anglers at the top of the leaderboard. And until Saturday, it had been so for Iaconelli.
"I've caught big ones every day except today in the last hour," said Iaconelli, who had a five-bass limit weighing 16 pounds, 7 ounces to give him a three-day total of 69-8. "The first day, my two biggest fish came in the last hour, 15 minutes apart."
That's when Iaconelli weighed 28-2, which remains the biggest bag of the tournament.
"I believe you get bigger pushes when the conditions get like this," said Iaconelli, noting the calm conditions at Lake Guntersville during the weigh-in, unlike the white caps produced by a gusting north wind all morning.
Jason Christie is another firm believer in the final hour theory for Sunday. Christie had a limit weighing 9 pounds at 2 p.m. He finished with 23-10 and is in fourth place, 4-1 behind Iaconelli.
"Every day they bit later for me," Christie said. "I honestly believe it will be won in the final hour tomorrow."
Christie also discovered something at the end of the day that might pay off on Sunday.
"At two o'clock, when I got two good ones, I thought, 'I know (the lure) they'll really bite, and they're all in my truck.' I think I can catch 'em tomorrow. I think. You never know about this pond."
Christie is the only angler in the 12-man final that has caught a bigger bag than he did the day before on all three days. He went from 22nd place with 20-7 on Day 1 to 14th place with 21-6 on Day 2 to fourth place with 23-10 Saturday.
It's remarkably close to what he did last May when Christie won the Elite Series event at Arkansas' Lake Dardanelle, when he went from 26th to 10th to fourth then first.
But everyone in the Top 12 has a legitimate chance to win Sunday. Recent history at Lake Guntersville is proof. You only have to remember Randy Howell's Bassmaster Classic victory in February 2013, when he was in 11th place, exactly 9 pounds out of first place going into the final, when he caught 29-2 and won it.
Brent Ehrler is in 12th place entering this final, 8-15 behind Iaconelli. Based on his long FLW history of success, it would hardly be a shocker if he came back and won this event.
Everyone knows that Lake Guntersville has the bass population to produce a big comeback. Paul Mueller had a 32-3 bag on Day 2 of the Classic when he finished second by one pound to Howell.
"I've caught 29 pounds before in a tournament here," said David Walker, who is in third, only 2-4 behind Iaconelli. "It's very easily done. There's enough 6-pounders in here to make that happen."
The most likely candidate to knock Iaconelli out of first place on the final day is Skeet Reese. His 25-1 total was the big bag Saturday. Reese also had 24-15 on Day 1.
Reese may have found some sort of magic big bass spot Saturday.
"I caught a 7-pounder there the first day," he said. "I caught a 6-something today on the exact same spot. I like that spot."
Reese acknowledged that the wind helped him Saturday, while it hurt anglers like Iaconelli and David Walker.
"The wind today set up well for how I was fishing," he said. "(Sunday) will be slick. That will be a tougher bite for me. I'll have to change up a little bit. The morning might be crucial."
Illustrating the point, Reese and Iaconelli spent much of the day near each other in Seibold Creek. While Reese was thriving, Iaconelli was dying. Iaconelli resorted to his second-least favorite technique – Carolina rigging – to salvage his day.
"My least favorite is a jigging spoon," Iaconelli said. "A Carolina rig would be next and after that would be sight fishing. Those are my bottom three."
Iaconelli had caught fish in the same area on different baits each of the first two days. When none of those lures produced a bite in the first hour-and-a-half, he realized it was time for a drastic change.
"I'm making good decisions," Iaconelli said. "I made a good decision on a tough day to pull out that Carolina rig. That was one of the 25 rods in my rod locker that I never wanted to touch.
"Had I not pulled out a Carolina rig, I would have weighed like 11 pounds or something."
So the final day at Lake Guntersville boils down to this:
1) If the two-day leader, who had 28-2 backed by 24-15, can struggle like Iaconelli did Saturday on a lake where 30-pound bags aren't unusual, anything could happen Sunday.
2) And when it does, it's most likely to happen in the final hour.