Facts on this year’s AOY Championship

One-third to the way through the Angler of the Year Championship but remarkably little has changed.

Yes, it's true that we're one-third of the way through the AOY Championship, but remarkably little has changed in the way of the AOY race. Greg Hackney still leads. Todd Faircloth and Aaron Martens have switched spots in the standings, but they still trail Hackney, and Hackney still controls his own destiny. If he can move into 15th place or better — just two rungs up the ladder from where he is after Day 1 — no one can catch him. He'll be the 2014 Toyota Bassmaster Angler of the Year.

Twenty anglers moved up in the AOY standings yesterday. Andy Montgomery made the biggest move. He had been 45th (outside the Classic cut) and now he's 36th (inside the cut. He did it behind a 5-bass limit weighing 21-2 that put him in 7th place in the tournament. Others moving in a positive direction include Ott DeFoe (was 32nd; now 24th), Chris Lane (was 17th; now 10th), Brandon Lester (was 33rd; now 26th), Brian Snowden (was 42nd; now 35th) and TIm Horton (was 44th; now 37th). DeFoe and Lane were already guaranteed Classic spots. Lester was in pretty solid shape before competition began. Snowden and Horton can put themselves in the Classic with good performances in the next two rounds.

Twenty-two anglers moved down in the AOY standings yesterday. Alton Jones took the biggest and toughest fall. As the winner of the 2008 Classic on Lake Hartwell (site of the 2015 championship), no one wants to go back any more than Jones, but he stumbled in the first round with a small limit weighing 14-8 that put him in 40th place. That might not have been so bad except for the fact that the "wrong" anglers did well. And by "wrong" I mean the guys who were positioned around and behind Jones and who could push him down the ranks. He fell from 39th (likely the last man in the Classic) to 46th — well outside the cut. He needs a couple of solid days to get back in the mix. Other anglers who struggled mightily include Jason Christie (was 11th; now 17th), Morizo Shimizu (was 23rd; now 29th), Bill Lowen (was 27th; now 33rd), Bernie Schultz (was 36th; now 42nd) and Takahiro Omori (was 37th; now 43rd). Christie already has a spot in the Classic following his Elite win this season. Shimizu and Lowen are safe; they're going to the Classic unless the unimaginable happens. But Schultz and Omori need to right their respective ships or watch their seasons end badly in Michigan.

We're a third of the way through the AOY Championship, but there are still six anglers with a mathematical chance to win AOY: Greg Hackney (748 points), Todd Faircloth (738), Aaron Martens (729), Jacob Powroznik (721), Mark Davis (707) and Keith Combs (699). Because there are no cuts in this event, no one's points are locked in until it's all over, and on Bays de Noc disaster is always just around the corner or on the crest of the next roller. If the leader breaks down and can't get to the weigh-in one day, he's dead and all five of the other anglers will pass him. Absent disaster, though, it's a tough tournament to create separation in. Almost everyone will have a limit every day. A great catch is full of 4 pounders (20 pounds would put you in 13th). A "bad" catch is full of 3 pounders (15 pounds would put you in 38th). It's nearly a perfect bell curve, and moving left or right on this bell curve is going to be difficult once you've established a position with your Day 1 catch.

Greg Hackney

– finished second (behind Gerald Swindle) in 2004; also second in FLW AOY that year

– would be first Louisiana resident to win AOY

– would make biggest jump from last year's AOY standings of any contender (he was 45th in 2013)

– would be fourth angler to win AOY with both B.A.S.S. and FLW (Denny Brauer, Kevin VanDam and Jay Yelas are the others)

Aaron Martens

– won in 2005 and 2013

– would be first to win back-to-back AOYs since Kevin VanDam (2008-11); Roland Martin (1971-73, 1978-79, 1984-85) and Guido Hibdon (1990-91) also won back-to-back

– runs his streak of Top 25 AOY finishes to 11 (2004-14) — seventh longest in history (Rick Clunn holds the record with 28)

Todd Faircloth

– finished second (behind Kevin VanDam) in 2008

– would be first Texas resident to win AOY since 2003 (Jay Yelas)

– had best start of any contender — second at Seminole

– has never ranked worse than seventh in this year's AOY race

Jacob Powroznik

– would be first Virginia resident to win AOY

– would be first rookie to win since Tim Horton in 2000

– was second in FLW AOY in 2012 and third in 2008 and 2013

Keith Combs

– would be first Texas resident to win AOY since 2003 (Jay Yelas)

– had worst start of any contender — 69th at Seminole

Mark Davis

– won in 1995, 1998 and 2001

– would be oldest angler ever to win AOY (51 in October); Roland Martin was 45 in 1985

– another AOY would rank him third all-time behind Roland Martin (9) and Kevin VanDam (7)

– would be first four-time winner since Kevin VanDam reached four in 2008

– has never ranked worse than seventh in this year's AOY race

It's looking more and more like the top 39 anglers in the AOY standings will earn 2015 Classic berths. Here's how it shakes out: (1) The top 29 are guaranteed spots in the Classic; (2) anglers can double-qualify by being in that top points group and winning the Classic, an Elite event or an Open; (3) if an Opens angler wins a tournament but did not fish all of the events in that division, the Classic spot that would have been his reverts to the Elite Series AOY standings.

Now let's put some names and faces to that background information after Day 1 of the AOY Championship. The top 29 anglers gives us everyone from Greg Hackney to Morizo Shimizu. Within that group there are six double qualifiers (Hackney, Jacob Powroznik, Chris Lane, Jason Christie, Ott DeFoe and Michael Iaconelli. That carries us down six more places in the standings to 35th. But wait, three of those six anglers are double qualified (Brett Hite, Randy Howell and Mike McClelland). So that moves us down three more spots to 38th. Then factor in the recent Central Open won by Mark Tyler. Since Tyler didn't fish the preceding Central Opens, the Classic spot that could have been his goes to the Elite Series and 39th place.

So, if you're following along at home (or even from the road, like me), it means that Kevin Short is currently the last man in and Chris Zaldain is the first man out. They're separated by five points, and by the end of the day tomorrow either or both may be well inside or outside the cut as the "Escanaba Shuffle" continues.

With a decent finish here in Escanaba, Kevin Short can do the unthinkable — qualify for the Bassmaster Classic despite having missed a tournament this season. When his Arkansas home was destroyed by a tornado, Short missed the Toledo Bend event. Still, he's put together a solid season that has him on the verge of qualifying for  this Classic. The only other times that has happened in Elite history was when Randy Howell, Alton Jones and Kevin VanDam did it in 2006 after all being disqualified at Santee Cooper.

If you're an angler near the bottom of the field in the AOY race coming into the Championship, you'd like to see it take place on the Sabine River or Table Rock Lake or Lake Amistad — almost anywhere really except on one of the finest smallmouth bass fisheries in the world.

Why? One word — "separation."

Separation is how you create distance in the standings between yourself and other anglers. Separation is what you need to make up big chunks of ground on the tournament trail. And separation is very difficult to come by at Bays de Noc.

You see lots of separation at fisheries that have one of two qualities, and if they have both you'll see fireworks — huge separation in the standings.

The two qualities that give you separation are tough fishing and big bass. If you have one, you get good separation. If you have both, you get crazy separation where an angler can win by 10 or 15 pounds and 20 pounds may separate first from 12th going into the finals.

But when the fishing's good and the bass are more or less the same size, separation is hard to come by. At Bays de Noc, the fishing is very good. Forty-five of the 50 anglers caught a limit in the first round. And the bass are more or less the same size. They average 3.5 pounds. The guys catching 4 pounders are in the top 12. The guys catching 3 pounders are in the bottom 12. Everyone else is in the middle. Three pounds separates 22 places in the middle of the standings. It's hard to break out in a situation like that.

And that makes it extra tough for those anglers with their backs against the wall. There's little or nothing they can do to create the critical separation they need. It's a recipe made to order for the anglers who just need to hang in there, bag their 15 pounds and wait for their ticket to the Classic (of course, that's easier said than done). But if you're chasing after AOY or one of the final Classic spots, your battle is being fought uphill … in the dark and using hand-to-hand combat.