No way to pick a winner

It can happen anywhere to anybody — one of those Kentucky Lake bass bursts that can turn around a day that appeared to be a bust.

PARIS, Tenn. — It can happen anywhere to anybody — one of those Kentucky Lake bass bursts that can turn around a day that appeared to be a bust. That’s what all 12 finalists are hoping for heading into the final day of the Zippo BASSfest Elite on Kentucky Lake presented by A.R.E. Truck Caps.

But there’s no way to predict if that will happen, much less where or when. Making it even more difficult, the heavy current that was flowing through Kentucky Lake on Days 1 and 2 slowed to a crawl on Day 4 and is expected to remain that way Sunday. The Tennessee Valley Authority reduced the water released from the dam from 50,000 cubic feet per second to 29,000 cfs Thursday afternoon and is expected to keep it there through Monday.

“That’s just enough,” said Derek Remitz, who is in second place, 2 pounds, 9 ounces behind leader Edwin Evers’ three-day total of 72-4. “As long as you’ve got something. That’s the main thing, especially with as much pressure as these fish are getting.”

It has been a different angler every day that has managed to find a school of big bass and post a big number on the weigh-in scales. Friday it was Remitz. His five-bass limit of 28-1 is the heaviest in the tournament so far. Saturday it was Fred Roumbanis, who finished with 26-15 and moved from 13th place to fourth. He trails Evers by just over 4 pounds.

Brandon Lester is the picture of consistency with bags of 22-14, 22-5 and 24-5. But he had to change techniques and fishing holes Saturday to post his best day so far. Lester trails Evers by less than 3 pounds.

It will probably take 25 pounds or more to win this event, which carries a Bassmaster Classic berth for the victor in addition to a six-figure check.

“I’ll have to have at least 25 pounds because Edwin will have 21 or 22 at the minimum,” Remitz said. “If I caught 26 pounds tomorrow, I’d feel comfortable, but not safe because you just don’t know. Everybody is a threat.”

Brett Hite is definitely a threat. He’s in fifth place, 3 pounds, 9 ounces behind Evers, and he’s got a spot that has been highly productive in a minimum amount of time spent there the first three days.

“I’d say 27 pounds would be a pretty strong number,” Hite said. “If you come in with that you’ll have a pretty good shot to win because it’s still pretty close.”

But there’s simply no predicting who will find the mother lode on Sunday – the bass school that gets fired up and contains some 6- or 7-pounders in it.

Timmy Horton has experienced the ups and downs of that. Horton has caught plenty of fish every day, relying almost exclusively on a deep-running crankbait. Horton had 27-1 on Day 2, which moved him up to fourth place. But he had “only” 18-9 Saturday and fell back to ninth, 6-7 behind Evers.

“I’m catching a lot of 4-pounders,” Horton said Thursday. “The whole key is getting a couple of those big bites. For whatever reason, I caught more fish the first day (when he finished with 20-3). I could not catch a 5-pounder the first day. I caught a hundred 3 3/4s, literally.”

Either you can’t get a school to fire in the first place, or you do and you can’t catch a game-changer in the bunch. And there’s always the chance that the school of bass you’ve found one day will disappear the next.

Randy Howell is the perfect example. Howell found a big school in the final hours of practice Tuesday.

“It was a really big school,” Howell said. “I made two casts and caught two five-pounders. They were just thick. I could feel my crankbait bumping into them.”

When Howell went back on Day 1 there was nothing there. He came back three more times that day – nothing. And he came back four times on Day 2 – nothing. The only reason Howell was fishing Saturday is because he won the Second Chance event Friday at Lake Barkley. Howell decided to check them one more time.

“It was every cast,” he said. “They were all good ones too. In that little flurry there I caught them all in a row on a hair jig.”

Howell caught 7 bass in less than 15 minutes that weighed a total of over 25 pounds. After culling, he had almost what he’d finish with Saturday, which was 22-13.

It’s stories like Howell’s and all the others that hammer home the point: Almost anyone could win this tournament Sunday.