GUNTERSVILLE, Ala. — The list of anglers who have won the recent regular-season Bassmaster Elite Series events here looks like a Who's Who of the sport: Skeet Reese in 2010, Aaron Martens in 2009, Kevin VanDam in 2007 and Mike Iaconelli in 2006.
But those four tournaments were held in late April or early May, when Lake Guntersville's bass population was schooled up in post-spawn mode. This year's Diet Mtn Dew Bassmaster Elite at Lake Guntersville will present a different playing field when the four-day event begins Thursday.
"There are fish up on the bank, and there are fish in between," said Skeet Reese, who won in 2010 with 100 pounds, 13 ounces, and finished second to Martens in '09 with 104-4.
"When we've been here in the past and when I won in 2010, the fish were concentrated."
One observer counted as Reese caught 25 bass on 28 casts in '09, when Martens won it with 107-8.
So will it take 100-plus pounds to win again, on what is arguably the best bass fishing lake in America?
"The numbers are here," Reese said. "The quality is here. Whether they are too spread out or not is the question."
Aaron Martens will be surprised if it takes triple digits to win.
"We're not breaking 100 pounds," he said. "I really don't think so. It's going to be tough. I think we hit it on a bad week. There's still a lot of fish out."
But opinions vary widely among the Elite Series anglers about what the winning total will be – ranging from the low 80s to 100 pounds-plus.
"It ought to take 100 pounds," said Kevin VanDam. "If it was going to be slick and sunny, like today, it would be really good because the sight-fishermen would catch plenty of big ones. But it's not going to be like that for four days.
"There will be some big bags caught every day, it's just going to be hard to be consistent. It will still take somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 pounds to win. You can catch 'em a lot of different ways right now."
And for that reason, Mike Iaconelli predicts it will be won by someone doing something a little different every day.
"I think you're going to see a guy junk fish and win," he said. "I really do. It's setting up to be that type of event, and it's changing daily."
Iaconelli noted that in practice Monday, when he roamed quite a bit of this 70,000-acre impoundment, he was seeing water surface temperatures right at 60 degrees consistently. Late Wednesday morning in the last practice hours, it was in the 65- to 67-degree range.
"That's a huge jump in 2 ½ days," he said. "The fish are constantly moving. That's why I think the winner is going to junk fish, and the guys that do well are going to fish on the fly a little bit.
"I don't think there are any giant groups out there, like there would be earlier in the year or later – that needle in a haystack. You're going to have to be smart, move and adjust with the fish.
"I'd rather be out there with a crankbait, throwing at one spot. But I just don't think you'll be able to do that this week. It's going to make for an interesting tournament."
That might be the only sure thing on the eve of this event: It's going to be interesting.