Fantasy: Take a gamble in the end

Because none of the pros have a home lake advantage, it's best to choose low-percentage anglers who will give players a chance to beat the crowd.

With one event left to go in the Elite Series season, I’m ahead of 91.9 percent of the other Bassmaster Fantasy Fishing players worldwide. That sounds pretty darn good — until you realize that puts me in about 8 billionth place (actually, just a little past 2,000th, which for practical purposes might as well be higher).

I suppose it’s mathematically possible that I could pass them if they all pick a slate of losers for the Escanaba rodeo, but it seems highly unlikely. You’ll have to get the likes of Stephen Hawking or Ken Duke to crunch the numbers on that.

In the meantime, I’m going to just try to move as far up the ladder as I can. Being in the 95th percentile would be great, but 85th isn’t all that atrocious (and they pay the same!), so it makes sense for me to take some risks. Unfortunately, that’s harder to do with 10-man buckets than with 20-man buckets. Still, it likely means I have to avoid the pros with a more than 30 percent ownership rate like the plague.

I suppose I could cement my “opposite day” strategy by conspicuously avoiding local favorites, but that won’t be a hard row for anyone to hoe: All four home state Elite Series anglers failed to make the 50-cut. As a side note, while researching this column I learned that there is serious debate about whether people from Michigan should be called “Michiganders” or “Michiganians.” Fortunately for the B.A.S.S. writers (but unfortunately for home state fans) there will be no need to come down on one side or the other because Kevin VanDam, Nate Wellman, Chad Pipkens and Jonathon VanDam all missed the Top 50 by relatively small margins.

To put that into perspective, there will be more anglers from Idaho — one — in the field than will be from Michigan.

There will also be more anglers from other far-flung locales. I count six current or past Californians, three Arizonans and two pros from Japan (although one now calls Texas home).

The other thing that makes this one tough is that these guys have all been catching them — whether all season long or for a portion thereof. There’s no dead weight in this group, no list of guys who’d seem to have no chance against their colleagues. My goal is to avoid the anglers picked by a high percentage of Fantasy Fishing players, and if I can find a low-ownership bargain, so much the better. With that in mind, here are my picks:

Bucket A

Picked: Jared Lintner

Almost Picked: Todd Faircloth

Todd Faircloth is like a blue chip stock. There may be an occasional hiccup, but in the long term he’ll rarely disappoint you, and he catches them everywhere, from Florida to Texas to the Great Lakes.

Still, if I’m going to make a move, I need to make a low-ownership choice, and Jared Lintner has had a quietly remarkable season, with five finishes between fifth and 18th. You may wonder what I’m doing picking a Californian for a Great Lakes tournament, but check out this pic I received from his wife, Keri — a youthful Jared putting a hurting on the toothy critters shows that he’s been stealthily pre-fishing for 35 years.

Bucket B

Picked: Justin Lucas

Almost Picked: Jason Christie

Justin Lucas is another Californian — well, at least a former Californian, although his current home in Alabama isn’t much closer to northern Michigan. Lucas is on pace to make his first Classic this year and hasn’t missed a check since Toledo Bend the first week of May. Besides, he qualified for the Elites out of the Northern Opens, with ninth-, 23rd- and 30th-place finishes last year.

Despite a previous Open win on St. Clair, Jason Christie’s ownership percentage is just a little too high to really help me at this point in the season.

Bucket C

Picked: Mike McClelland

Almost Picked: Mike Iaconelli

Obviously a lot of fans are banking on Brandon Palaniuk to bring home the trophy, and certainly he’s a master of Northern smallmouths. So is Mike Iaconelli. Moreover, like Lucas, Ike hasn’t missed an Elite check since Toledo Bend, and has finished in the Top 6 in three of his past five Elite Series tournaments, with a 19th at Cayuga as well.

Still, I’ve got to go with a single-digit ownership guy, and I’m banking on McClelland. I just somehow feel that he’ll make something happen with the jerkbait while others are getting it done with soft plastics, and he might have that bite to himself.

Bucket D

Picked: Kevin Short

Almost Picked: Bernie Schultz

As I recently implied on Bassmaster.com, Kevin Short may have spent more time on Bay de Noc than any other man in this field. Normally, that doesn’t give you a huge advantage in the Elites: After all, the magazines and websites are littered with stories of hometown favorites who failed miserably in tournaments in which they were able to sleep in their own beds.

It will give Short a slight advantage in terms of navigation, as he won’t have to spend precious practice time learning where he can/can’t run, but that’s about it. Nevertheless, after I pointedly did not pick him for the Delaware, he gave me a serious case of the stink eye, so I’m sticking with him as long as he continues to fish like he did in Philly and at Cayuga. He’s on the Classic bubble, too, and I’m sure he’d give just about anything to get back to Hartwell, the site of his first Classic appearance.

Bernie Schultz has also been on a tear of late. The eight-time Classic qualifier may need to move up a few spots to get in the big dance, which he hasn’t visited since 2009. He also typically does quite well in the North country, so it was tough for me to pass him up.

Bucket E

Picked: Jeff Kriet

Almost Picked: Steve Kennedy

Like Short, Steve Kennedy has vacationed in Escanaba on multiple occasions and knows his way around, so I want to pick him, and I may regret not doing so. On the other hand, Kennedy, like Ish Monroe and Tommy Biffle, is Fantasy Fishing kryptonite to me — just as likely to come in 90th (or in this case 50th) as he is to win.

I know I said above that it was in my best interest to gamble, but with roughly equal ownership percentages, I’m going with Jeff Kriet. He’ll be there with his traveling buddy McClelland, so count me as going all-in on Peepaw and the Squirrel. Kriet will need a high finish to move into the Classic field out of 41st place. Certainly all of them will be motivated to get to Hartwell, but it would likely be extra special for Kriet because the South Carolina impoundment sets up well for his style of fishing. He finished sixth there in 2008.

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Be sure to set your lineup by the time the pros launch on Sept. 18.