Fantasy: Pick like you’re 8 years old

Sometimes the numbers mean nothing. The stats are merely history and not a predictor of things to come.

My 8-year-old whooped me pretty good in the Chesapeake Bay event by picking her favorite anglers. It worked. Maybe that’s what we need to do for St. Clair!

In the last event, I said Evers and momentum; Maggie said Lucas and fairness. Advantage: Fairness.

I said Ike with history and local flavor; Maggie said Palaniuk because she likes him. Advantage: Liking a guy.

I said Rook with history and consistency; Maggie said Shimizu because you can’t help but pull for the guy and his million-dollar laugh. Advantage: Big Mama.

I said Pipkens with consistency plus momentum; Maggie agreed. Draw.

Maggie said pick the Aussie because he is fun to listen to, while I said K-Pink who will be fishing free and easy with no pressure. Advantage: Accent.

When the dust settled, she had smoked me 1,159 points to my paltry 859. Lesson: Sometimes, you should listen to the kids. Sometimes the numbers mean nothing. The stats are merely history and not a predictor of things to come.

Either way, what my family and I have developed this season is a stronger following for some great guys and the joy of following the sport that others may not understand. If Maggie looks at me and says “Big Mama” in the Morizo voice or Sam catches a fish and screams “never give up!,” some people might think we are nuts. But we love it.

So, along with my children’s insights, here are my picks for Lake St. Clair:

Bucket A: Powroznik

If you are protecting a lead while still trying to move forward, there is no way anyone could fault you for an Aaron Martens pick right now. I am surprised he is only at 35 percent at the time of this writing.

Kevin VanDam is second at 24 percent, and as a fan favorite and local, it would be hard to argue against a pick for him.

Because I am in the Top 5 percent but still a mile back of the Top 25 leaders in Bassmaster Fantasy Fishing, I am going with Jacob Powroznik. He has a relatively low ownership at 4 percent, and he is comfortable chasing smallmouth bass. I fully expect him to make a run at the Top 12 and possibly have a Bassmaster LIVE camera in his boat on Days 3 and 4. If he manages to do that, I’ll surpass most of the players in Bucket A.

Maggie is taking Edwin Evers. Sam was leaning toward Martens, but he settled on VanDam.

Bucket B: Shimizu

Chris Lane won here last time, but I am not sure if his pattern will produce again. Still, he is a solid pick. Mark Davis and Josh Bertrand are also solid values.

I am going to take the guy who I really want to pull for and who I also think has a legitimate shot at winning or at least finishing in the Top 12. My family is made up of Morizo Shimizu fans, and I also like the value he brings with momentum, history and only 7 percent of the field picking him.

Maggie is also sticking with Shimizu. Sam wants Ott DeFoe in this one.

Bucket C: Pipkens

Young up-and-comers — Jonathon VanDam, Chad Pipkens and Seth Feider — with smallmouth wisdom and experience beyond their years are in Bucket C. Wily veterans like Mike Iaconelli, Todd Faircloth and Shaw Grigsby are also in here. With the percentages scattered, it seems others are not sure which way to go either.

I will side with momentum and knowledge and take Chad Pipkens. This is possibly the biggest no-brainer in the all the buckets. I am confident with Pipkens.

Faircloth would be a dark horse at this time, but he is a favorite of mine and he is fishing better as of late.

Maggie says: “I’m taking Chad.” Sam said he would take Ike.

Bucket D: Kreiger

This bucket has anglers with smallmouth knowledge from Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota (originally) and Connecticut. So what am I going to do?

I am going with Florida angler Koby Kreiger. He has a history of success on this water. Not many people even realize that, but I’m not afraid to tell you my real picks.

Other good options, in order, are Fletcher Shryock, Takahiro Omori, Carl Jocumsen and Nate Wellman.

Maggie initially took Randall Tharp but then scanned down farther and said, “No, make that Carl,” referring to Carl Jocumsen. Sam says Casey Ashley is a safe pick here.

Bucket E: Clunn

I did the most head-scratching in this bucket. I looked at the numbers. I looked at the history. I looked at the favorites.

I picked Kotaro Kiriyama until I looked at the momentum — back-to-back 105th- and 106th-place finishes. He has a history of success on this body of water, but something is just not adding up here.

Instead, I am taking my daughters advice, and it looks like Rick Clunn deserves my pick. He has had an off year by anyone’s standards, but his history speaks for itself.

Kevin Hawk and Cliff Prince may be good options as well; they may have the best chance to turn things around and cash a check.

Maggie is going with Hawk, and Sam is going with the crowd and taking Cliff Pace.

Best of luck to you, and if you are not watching Bassmaster LIVE during the events, you are missing out.