Fantasy: Depend on river specialists

The Sabine River should be a Fantasy Fishing competitor’s worst nightmare — long runs, wads of little fish, and long distances between them with nothing but prop-chewing obstacles to get in the way.

ORANGE, Texas — The Sabine River should be a Fantasy Fishing competitor’s worst nightmare — long runs, wads of little fish, and long distances between them with nothing but prop-chewing obstacles to get in the way. You might choose the best team on paper, but a lost lower unit can easily undo the efforts of your best angler. Another one might get bumped out of the Top 12 or Top 50 by someone else’s last-minute 4-pounder.

It’s not likely to be a Kentucky Lake or Guntersville slugfest where someone can milk a school for four days. Instead, it’ll take multiple spots, a variety of baits and — dare I say it — a little luck, to get the job done.

With that said, look at the Top 6 from the 2013 Sabine River Challenge and it’s clear that cream most often rises to the top. In first, with 49-6, was semi-local Todd Faircloth, a threat to win anywhere. In second was Dean Rojas, one of the greatest shallow-water anglers of the past 15 years, with two wins in nearby Louisiana on his résumé. In third and sixth were Terry Scroggins and Bobby Lane, two superlative Florida flippers. Ish Monroe, who honed his skills on the equally vast California Delta, was fourth, and Bill Lowen, the hull-scrapingest Ohio River rat who ever lived, was fifth. Surprises? Hardly.

Even though their presence at and near the top shouldn’t shock anyone, even the top dogs struggled. Only two pros had a limit all four days. Faircloth, the winner, did not. Three members of the Top 12 had a day where they only weighed in one fish. Each additional bite is going to be precious. With that in mind, pick anglers who tend to catch fish everywhere in addition to being river specialists. You want to pick pros who won’t falter when another 2-pounder will make a huge difference.

Bucket A

Probably Should Have Picked: Todd Faircloth

He’s a local, he’s a winner, he’s won here before. Unless he can’t get rid of the multiple illnesses that plagued him during the Classic, he should be near the top.

Almost Picked: Dean Rojas

Rojas was the runner-up to Faircloth in 2013, he’s coming off a great Classic, and he’s won twice in nearby Louisiana. He might not even have to share space with Alton Jones this time, a disagreement that produced one of the most riveting televised exchanges in B.A.S.S. history.

My Pick: Randall Tharp

Not sure if he’s ever been there, but the dude is an absolute hammer, especially in shallow grassy water. With a year of Elite Series competition under his belt, this could be the first volley in an Angler of the Year campaign.

Bucket B

Probably Should Have Picked: Kevin Short

The Arkansas River rat showed his moving water chops last year in Philly and he’s good at getting revenge — which he’ll need after a 77th-place finish on the Sabine in 2013.

Almost Picked: Mike Iaconelli

I don’t think he’ll put his boat on the bank this time, and I don’t think he’ll go the other way and become tentative, either. Nevertheless, the past two years he’s gotten off to slow starts in Elite competition, finishing 75th in 2014 and 83rd the year before at the Sabine. Maybe he likes the challenge of waiting until the last minute to qualify for the Classic.

My Pick: Bill Lowen

Finished fifth here last time, always seems to do well on ankle-deep water. Watch him ride a square bill or a Chatterbait to the Top 12.

Bucket C

Probably Should Have Picked: Ish Monroe

Finished fourth last time, and he’s probably anxious to start Elite Series competition because that’ll be his sole possible route to the Classic this year.

Almost Picked: Steve Kennedy

I shouldn’t admit this, but I root for him all the time. So entertaining to watch, so gifted, but up and down performance makes him a tough pick this early in the season.

My Pick: Stephen Browning

When in Rome … he’s an Arkansas River expert and didn’t have a great tournament here last time (49th) but he’s been on his game with two Red River Open wins since then.

Bucket D

Probably Should Have Picked: Tommy Biffle

The O.G. flipper just wins and while he finished a dismal 84th here last time, it looks like a jig fisherman’s paradise, which should suit him just fine.

Almost Picked: Billy McCaghren

Another Arkansas River machine, he finished 25th here last time but has only done that well in Elite Series competition once since then, 10th at the subsequent tournament on Falcon.

My Pick: Dennis Tietje

Except for mechanical problems on Day 1 last time, he might’ve been in the Top 5. He still made the Top 12. The closest thing to a local in the field, and after almost not requalifying for the Elite Series, he needs to get the job done where he has something of an advantage.

Bucket E

Probably Should Have Picked: Jordan Lee

Dating back to Derek Remitz’s win at Amistad, some rookie always seems to start off the season with a bang. Why not pick a Lee? And Jordan’s name comes first in the alphabet. Seriously, though, in 11 Bassmaster events he’s been in the Top 12 on five occasions, including a fourth in last year’s Central Open on the Arkansas River.

Almost Picked: Paul Mueller

Another Elite Series rookie who won’t be fazed by anything you throw at him. He doesn’t know that a Connecticut Yankee isn’t supposed to do well in Orange, Texas, but while he’s been exceptional in Classics and in B.A.S.S. Nation events, his limited record in the Opens is lackluster, so he’s still an enigma.

My Pick: Brent Ehrler

Getting Ehrler in the “E” bucket is like finding a $400 swimbait in the dollar lure bargain bin under a wad of “tourist style” pre-rigged worms. Even if you only fish the Sabine, where the lure will sink into foot-deep silt and mud, you can’t pass it up.