Fantasy: All about that grass

Absent a tornado or some other natural disaster, this one is going to be an absolute slugfest.

I achieved a pretty miserable Bassmaster Fantasy Fishing showing at the Sabine, with my team led by Dennis Tietje’s back-from-the-dead 33rd-place showing, while “sure things” like Day 1 stud Bill Lowen, super-flipper Randall Tharp and not-a-real-rookie Brent Ehrler came up short.

Unlike the Sabine, where you’d expect local knowledge to play a major role, Guntersville is more or less an even playing field at this level. That’s not to say that the Alabama natives and transplants won’t have some slight advantages, just that this fishery might be the best-known entity on tour. It’s relatively easy to run, the fish are patternable, and if more than 10 members of the field have not been there before, I’ll eat a deep diving crankbait.

Absent a tornado or some other natural disaster, this one is going to be an absolute slugfest. Again, that’s different than the Sabine, where less than 12 pounds earned an angler the right to fish on Saturday for cash. At Guntersville, 12 pounds after two days will almost certainly provide you with a trip to work the Expo on Saturday, if not a meeting with a career counselor.

That doesn’t mean this one will be any easier to pick, though. It’s just as hard to win one of these as it is to win a grind-’em-out nailbiter. An angler who manages to add a kicker or two each day to a steady supply of 3- to 4-pound fish will distinguish himself.

He’ll also have to make peace with the Big G’s grass. There are certainly still some fish around the Spring Creek bridge, but I highly doubt that the winning string will come from that spot as it did at last year’s Classic.

Moreover, the fish will likely be doing a lot of different things, so someone who finds some sight fish to go with a few heavy prespawners will be better prepared for four days of combat on this heavily fished pond.

Here are my picks.

Bucket A: Lane, Lucas, Faircloth

Local Pick: Chris Lane

Chris Lane lives there now, he’s clearly fishing well, and he’s a grassmaster. Tough to pass up that combination. He’ll also be heavily picked. I need to buck some trends if I’m going to make up ground.

Almost Picked: Justin Lucas

Like Lane, Justin Lucas moved to Guntersville, and he’s coming off a Top 10 finish at the Sabine. He hasn’t finished out of the money in eight straight B.A.S.S. events. Should still be a value pick, too, because he’s not as well-known to the masses as many of the other members of Bucket A are.

My Pick: Todd Faircloth

Todd Faircloth is incredibly consistent with the chops to close out a win, and a legendary master of the East Texas grass. Seventh place at last year’s Classic on Guntersville, 11th place here in 2009, 21st in 2007, 15th in 2006. Thirteen Top 10 finishes in the past three years of competition (plus one event this year), with three runner-up finishes and two wins. A quiet killer.

Bucket B: Swindle, R. Lane, Iaconelli

Local Pick: Gerald Swindle

Gerald Swindle has spent tons of time on Guntersville, and he started off the year fine on the Sabine. He’s performed reasonably well in past B.A.S.S. events on Guntersville, but he hasn’t made a run at winning one here since 2006.

Almost Picked: Russ Lane

Russ Lane finished fifth in the 2010 Elite Series tournament on Guntersville, came in 10th at BASSfest at Chickamauga last year. He’d be a dark horse of sorts, only because Cliff Pace, Mike Iaconelli, Gerald Swindle, Randy Howell and Tommy Biffle will eat up ownership percentages in this bracket, so if he did make a run at victory, he’d be worth a lot.

My Pick: Mike Iaconelli

Iaconelli won here in 2006 and finished fourth in 2009, but he had a dismal Classic here in 2014. I’m willing to rule that latter performance out, owing to the fact that Classics have a different set of incentives than regular-season events. He’s had some other poor finishes on Guntersville, but he’s started this regular season strong, as opposed to 2013 and 2014, and I expect that momentum to continue as he challenges for an AOY title.

Bucket C: Tharp, Combs, VanDam

Local Pick: Randall Tharp

Despite the current Florida mailing address, Randall Tharp called Alabama home for a long time and turned in an exceptional performance at the 2014 Classic on Guntersville. Not sure what happened to him on the Sabine, where I expected that he’d be strong. Maybe the big fish mojo that carries him elsewhere doesn’t work when plain keepers are scarce.

Almost Picked: Keith Combs

Like Faircloth, Keith Combs is a beast in the grass and does a lot of things well. Had a middling Classic in 2014, as well as a tough showing on Chickamauga, just up the road. I may regret not picking either Tharp or Combs when I see the photo of one of them standing with a Guntersville Century Club belt.

My Pick: Kevin VanDam

Normally I’m hesitant to pick Superman, especially on the Tennessee River, where Kevin VanDam has been especially dominant. When the vast majority of your competitors choose him, that’s a tough sell. This year, though, he might be a value pick in Bucket C, coming off a trying 2014 season and a middle-of-the-pack showing at the Sabine, especially with guys like Jacob Powroznik, Ott DeFoe, Skeet Reese, Tharp and Combs in his bucket. He was second at Chickamauga last year, just one of 14 Top 10 B.A.S.S. finishes on the Tennessee River chain in his career.

Bucket D: Morgenthaler, Jordon, Ehrler

Local Pick: Chad Morgenthaler

Huh? How is an Illinois native building a house in Missouri a local? Well, during Chad Morgenthaler’s past several years of “homelessness,” he has spent a lot of time with his fifth wheel parked on Guntersville’s shores. He’s most comfortable flipping grass, as his two Florida wins indicate. He made a strong showing on the first two days of last year’s Classic, and was the runner-up to Powroznik last year at Toledo Bend in a tournament that played out fairly similar to the way in which I expect this one to happen.

Almost Picked: Kelly Jordon

A risky bet because Kelly Jordon’s performance in recent years has not been up to historical KJ standards, but at some point he’s going to bust a giant string. The Texas grass expert and sight fisherman extraordinaire won a Tour event here 13 years ago during almost exactly the same week, but I’m not ready to pull the trigger on him until I see some return to form.

My Pick: Brent Ehrler

Brent Ehrler disappointed many Fantasy Fishing geeks (myself included) at the Sabine. I’m hoping that’ll lead some people to drop him, as will the false perception that he’s a finesse guy. He’s won flipping and he’s fished plenty of grass lakes, from California to Florida, stopping in Alabama more times than he can recall. I highly doubt he’ll be in the vicinity of 87th place any time again this year.

Bucket E: Kennedy, Roumbanis, Evers

Local Pick: Steve Kennedy

The fan in me wants Steve Kennedy to win again. The actuary in me runs from his inconsistent performances. His 91st-place finish at the Sabine does not bode well, but it would be just like him to bounce back with a minimal-practice wire-to-wire victory. Since finishing third here in 2006, he has not again challenged for a win.

Almost Picked: Fred Roumbanis

Fred Roumbanis is another excellent grass angler and big bass expert, as evidenced by the monster he caught here during the 2014 Classic. After a horrible start at the Sabine, he’ll need to bounce back fast. He was 10th here in 2010, but his prior Elite finishes were middling at best.

My Pick: Edwin Evers

It’s odd to me to see an eight-time B.A.S.S. winner, still in the prime of his career, in Bucket E. While Evers has never won a Bassmaster event on the Tennessee River, he was third in last year’s Classic, 19th in 2010, 36th in 2007, seventh in 2006 and third in 2005. He’s steady all year long, but the 94th-place finish at the Sabine notwithstanding, he’s especially good during the spawn.

Those are five pretty vanilla picks, all guys who typically have heavy ownership percentages, not a true dark horse in the bunch. I can live with that this early in the year because the buckets are not distributed according to long-term trends but rather on the basis of recent history. There’s probably a way to exploit that market inefficiency, and I hope that I can take advantage of it.