ORANGE, Texas — A five-bass limit averaging 10 pounds a day would have put you in tall cotton the last time the Bassmaster Elite Series came to the Sabine River in 2013.
It's predicted to be déjà vu when the four-day Bassmaster Elite at Sabine River Presented by STARK Cultural Venues begins here Thursday.
"I would be happy as a lark with 8 to 10 pounds a day," said Chad Morgenthaler.
Mark Davis was in sixth place after three days in '13 with a total of 30 pounds, 3 ounces.
"I still think 30 pounds will have you fishing on Sunday again this time," said Greg Hackney, referring to the top 12 cut that takes place after Saturday's weigh-in.
There are two key differences between the past and the present: high, muddy water this year and the experience gained last time in this vast waterway connected by intercoastal canals.
Those will likely cancel each other out.
"Before, there was a lot of figuring out where (the bass) lived," Hackney said. "Now a lot of these guys know right where to go. So now the crowds will probably be worse in the good areas.
"Unless somebody makes one of those heroic boat rides, it'll be hard for me to believe that anyone will have some place all to themselves within an hour of here."
The high, muddy water might eliminate some of the attempts at "heroic boat rides."
"The stuff that's coming down the river is rough," Morgenthaler said. "That's something I don't think anybody figured on. There's some pretty hefty stuff floating down the ol' Sabine right now. You can't see it because (the water) looks like chocolate milk. It's full of logs.
"Somebody will not have a good day [Thursday], I promise you."
It took only 5 pounds a day to make the top 50 cut in 2013. Todd Faircloth won that tournament with a total of 49 pounds, 6 ounces.
Of the top 12 anglers who fished four straight days, only two had a five-bass limit every day — Ish Monroe and Bill Lowen, who finished fourth and fifth, respectively. Monroe's four-day total was exactly 40 pounds – 10 pounds a day.
The problem with catching a limit each day on the Sabine River system isn't catching bass, it's catching 14-inch minimum-length bass.
"It's hard to catch a 14-incher," Morgenthaler said.
"I think there's a possibility for some guys not catching a keeper for two days."
It was a zero on Day 3 that haunted Crochet the last time. He caught a limit weighing 13-0 the first day and a limit weighing 12-0 the second day, which put him in third place both days. Then he zeroed on Saturday and didn't make the top 12 cut, finishing 14th.
"I don't know if that area ran out of fish, but I needed another area just to survive," Crochet said. "This year I've got a couple of other areas that might not stand alone, but they complement my key area.
"That's important, I think, having one good area and something else for later in the tournament where you can finish it off."
Dennis Tietje of Roanoke, La., has more experience on these waters than anyone else in the 113-angler field. He has been fishing local tournaments on the Sabine River system since he was 18 years old, and Tietje is now 50.
In '13, Tietje suffered a mechanical failure on Day 1, had only an hour to fish and finished with one 2-pound, 14-ounce bass. But with two full days after that, Tietje rallied to make the top 12 with limits weighing 13-5 and 11-8 on Friday and Saturday.
"You're just not going to be able to have a bad day and recoup," Tietje said.
That includes not just mechanical breakdowns, but mental mistakes, too.
"The winner might fish in four different areas," Tietje said.
"Every one of these rivers has a magic moment when the fish turn on. Just knowing when your fish are done in one area is crucial."