The Grand factors

Successful fishing is all about adapting to the conditions you are faced with. It’s the same with tournament fishing, but then it becomes more about those who adapt the quickest, and who makes the best decisions at the right moments. The two biggest factors that anglers must overcome are weather and water conditions. Sounds simple, right?

In theory, understanding bass’s seasonal movements are based on current water temps, weather patterns and forage abundance is the key to finding the bass. Most fanatics would agree: Finding them is the hard part, and catching them is the fun part. The catching part begins with pattern establishment, and that comes with flexibility. Sure, everyone has a certain way to catch fish that they prefer over other presentations, but if you’re trying to force feed the fish simply because that’s how you like to catch them, don’t plan on cashing a lot of checks.

The biggest factors that the 2016 Classic contenders must overcome to remain in contention are water visibility, water temperature, forage abundance and fishing pressure and boat traffic. Let’s break each of those three factors down and hopefully isolate how the winning decisions get made.

Water Visibility

Winter has been funky across the nation this year; nobody would argue that—thank you El Niño. It was much warmer, which translates to lots of rain. With Oklahoma’s rich agricultural roots, especially around Grand Lake, the extensive runoff can easily turn the water into chocolate milk. Once it turns that way, it takes a while for the system to filter through the silt.

The Classic anglers have to adapt to stained water, which if it were a little warmer the fish would likely be in ultra-shallow water and very easy to catch. But, we’re not on the water temps yet; we’ll get to that later. The fish are in a prespawn mode and are in the process of moving into shallow water.

“I lost quite a few fish during the day, and some were pretty big, too,” said Aaron Martens during the first day of competition on Grand Lake. “It’s been pretty frustrating, but I think it’s because they can’t see the bait very well, and that might mean a slower presentation might be better. But, I’m also occasionally getting hung up in the rocks, which will roll the point of the hook over, and they’re not as sharp. So I put new hooks on and filled a limit—you’ve got to adapt.”

The water won’t likely clear up very much by Sunday, but with the warm sun, low winds and increasing nightly lows the water temps should increase.

Water Temperatures

The magic number is about 52 degrees. When the overall lake temperature warms up from the upper 40s—where it’s at now—into the lower 50s, Grand Lake is going to go to pop.

“I know for a fact that Grand Lake is on the verge of busting loose,” said Brandon Palainuk of Rathdrum, Idaho. “It could happen Saturday, it could happen Sunday, it might not happen until Wednesday or Thursday of next week, but it’s going to happen soon. It’s going to come down to being in the right place at the right time to connect with the fish showing up early.”

There is already warmer water way back in the creeks, but the bulk of the bigger fish aren’t that far up yet. The key is to catch them during their transition into the spawning zones. Grand Lake just isn’t there yet, but with each passing day, they get closer.

How does the water temperature affect the fishing? Based on where it’s currently at, the fish might chase a horizontal presentation, or they might be a bit too sluggish yet and prefer something slower, such as a jig. But, before the anglers can decide which presentation to go with, they must locate the fish. It’s common knowledge that rocks warm up the fastest, and they hold the heat well. Grand is loaded with chunk rock, rock ledges, boulders, gravel and shoreline riprap, but the key is finding which spot-on-the-spot is going to be the most productive.

When faced with cold and muddy water, keeping the trolling motor on high and covering water searching for active fish might be the best way to catch a good limit on Grand this week. Which presentations work best under those conditions? We’ll have to wait and see, but there’s a good chance that there are a bunch of squarebill crankbaits and spinnerbaits sitting in rod lockers today, but right next to a big black and blue jig.

Forage Abundance

Over abundance is the right way to say it, to be honest. Again, thanks to the unusually warm winter, there wasn’t a massive shad kill off like there is during regular winters. That means the fish have plenty to eat and they are more spread out. It’s common knowledge that a bass are opportunistic feeders and won’t stop eating because they’re “full.” However, with a lake loaded with baitfish, feeding competition is lower and the bass aren’t as concentrated.

How can this factor be overcome? Bright colors and repetitive casts. Using a lure that stands out against a giant school of shad will garner more attention. You’ll also notice the guys who are doing well are making repetitive casts to a specific piece of structure. They cover water quickly, but when a fish does bite, they’ll slow things down and milk every fish out of the right spots.

Boat Traffic

Grand Lake is a tremendous venue for the Bassmaster Classic, the fans are awesome and they come out in droves to follow their favorite angler. The tough side of that is the anglers now have to manage their spots with 30 to 40 extra boats nearby.

It’s a safe bet that this tournament will be won on a shallow-water bite, so the more boats driving around generating wake could negatively impact a fragile shallow-water pattern. The good thing is the spectators on Grand Lake are very respectful and give the anglers plenty of room to work their spots. While this won’t likely be a factor that ultimately decides the tournament for someone, it’s a factor that needs to be considered nonetheless.

The Bassmaster Classic field of anglers is made up of the best in the world, and they are beyond capable of managing these factors, and you can bet that some impressive fish will be brought to the scales each of the three days. But, the angler who adapts the quickest and continues to evolve with the consistently changing conditions will win the Bassmaster Classic.