The Root of all optimism

Local expert Jim Root predicted some big numbers for Cayuga, including 100 pounds for the winner. That kind of optimism is pretty common among local anglers before an Elite event, but his prognostications aren't looking very good right now. With the first day leader (Brandon Palaniuk) at 20-10, it seems like the winning weight will come in at around 80 pounds — perhaps less. I think what happens is that the local experts take the winning weights from one-day tournaments in the area, multiply them by four and then add several pounds because it's the Elites doing the fishing. The problem with that is two-fold. First of all, single day events commonly require huge numbers to win. The competitors have no reason to hold anything back for a Day 2 or Day 3, and luck is more of a factor because just about anything is possible in a one day event. It's much harder to duplicate or triplicate (yes, it is a word — I'm as shocked as you are) or quadruplicate ( the dictionary and everything) that catch. Second, expecting the Elite anglers to improve upon catches made by talented locals who have spent their lives fishing that water is unreasonable. The Elites are good — the best — but expecting them to multiply the best catches of the best locals is pretty crazy. So when the local expert tells you the winning weight is going to be something astronomical, keep it in perspective and ask him about his math.

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